Quarterback
Finding an edge at quarterback this week feels even more challenging than usual. The top fantasy performers with the best game environments and matchups, are also the most highly projected in percent rostered. The one possible exception is Caleb Williams, who is projected at under 3% despite a very favorable matchup against the Rams. However, the weather concerns me, with rain and winds around 20 mph. While we can try to get creative, the better approach might be to play the popular picks at quarterback and look to differentiate elsewhere. We should try to be even with or above the field on top options like Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, and Jayden Daniels. We also want to double the field on players with tough matchups but clear upside. Josh Allen fits that profile perfectly. A road game in Baltimore (with potential rain) may not seem ideal, but Allen's rushing upside means he should never be below 5% rostered. I am okay with mostly ignoring some of the quarterbacks with solid PPD projections but without much in the way of rushing upside.
Core Play
Kyler Murray (ARI, $8,700) vs. WAS
Kyler Murray continues to grow as a quarterback, but inconsistencies remain, as seen in last week’s loss to Detroit. Despite some lapses, his development as a passer is evident, especially in getting the ball downfield, where he ranks ninth in air yards per completion. His connection with rookie Marvin Harrison Jr.. is becoming one of the league’s most potent tandems, with Murray targeting Harrison on 35% of his passes over the past two weeks.
The Washington Commanders' defense has been a fantasy-friendly matchup for opposing quarterbacks. They rank 31st in EPA/Play Allowed and have struggled to pressure quarterbacks, ranking 30th in sack rate. With a vulnerable secondary that includes rookie cornerback Mike Sainristil and struggling slot corner Benjamin St-Juste, Murray and Harrison Jr. are set up for a high-ceiling performance. Murray's rushing upside and the Commanders' defensive woes make this one of the most favorable matchups of Week 4.