Contract Terms
According to Tom Pelissero, the Raiders are giving Gardner Minshew a two-year deal worth $25 million with $15 million guaranteed.
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Fantasy Football Impact
This is Minshew's first chance at a Day 1 starting job since he left Jacksonville in 2020. For 2021 and 2022, he was in Philadelphia to back up Jalen Hurts, and in 2023, Anthony Richardson was drafted weeks after the team added Minshew in free agency. Looking over his career numbers, Mishew has been inconsistent for fantasy purposes.
In Jacksonville, he took over after a Week 1 Nick Foles injury in 2019. He started 12 games that year, with 3271 passing yards and 21 touchdowns, representing his best fantasy season to date. From 2020 to 2022, he only appeared in 18 games, starting just 12. If you composite his numbers from those games, you get 3361 passing yards and 25 total touchdowns. Last year, as the starter from Week 5 on, he put up 3305 yards and 18 total touchdowns. He was the QB17 on the season after taking over as the starter.
His numbers are far from earth-shattering, and when you throw in a defensive head coach, Antonio Pierce, and his new offensive coordinator, Luke Getsy, it's fair to say Minshew won't appear on many top-10 lists. Getsy ran a very conservative offense during his time in Chicago, but some of that could have been catering an offense to Justin Fields. Minshew has become a statue since his rookie year and will force Getsy to change things up in Las Vegas. All in all, Minshew and his gunslinger mentality could play better in fantasy for his pass catchers than it does for his own value.
The Fantasy Football Fallout
Starting in Indianapolis, the fallout could be minimal or catastrophic. It depends on two things: Can Anthony Richardson stay healthy, and who do they sign as a backup? Last year, the Colts lost Richardson after four games, but Minshew stepped in and helped them to a nine-win season. It wasn't good enough to make the playoffs, but they had a fighter's chance. That backup role now falls to Sam Ehlinger, so there is room for improvement.
In Las Vegas, after a season of Jimmy Garoppolo, Brian Hoyer, and Aidan O'Connell, Minshew will be a sight for sore eyes. Despite only starting 13 games last year, he threw just four fewer touchdowns and 349 fewer yards than the Raiders' quarterbacks combined. O'Connell was the only one left on the roster, and he should benefit from a couple of years as a backup.
Last season saw Minshew help Michael Pittman achieve the best yardage total in his career. After a significant step back in yardage from Davante Adams and the 2nd-worst yards per catch of Jakobi Meyers' career, you have to think Minshew will be able to improve on the numbers we saw in 2023. The Colts and Bears, Getsy's old team, also targeted the tight end over 100 times last year, compared to the Raiders' 73. We should see an offense that is more willing to get second-year tight end Michael Mayer more involved than he was as a rookie.
With more volume and higher-quality targets from a better quarterback, 2024 should play out far better for all pass catchers in Las Vegas.
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Overview
After three years as a backup quarterback for the Eagles and Colts, Gardner Minshew appears poised to become the new starting quarterback for the Las Vegas Raiders. While it may not pay dividends in fantasy for Minshew, we should see improvement from everyone around him after a down 2023 in Las Vegas.
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