We're over a week into free agency in 2024, and while there are still quite a few players looking for work (including some big names), the NFL's landscape has been altered dramatically. And when the NFL landscape changes, fantasy football changes along with it.
Dozens of players have changed teams, and hundreds of millions in contracts have been awarded. That includes some whoppers on the defensive side of the ball. Defensive tackle Christian Wilkins got $110 million over four years to bolt Miami for the Las Vegas Raiders. The Houston Texans poured a ton of money into the defense, including handing edge-rusher Danielle Hunter $24.5 million a season. Linebacker Patrick Queen is a Raven nevermore—he landed a three-year, $41 million payday with the rival Pittsburgh Steelers.
Of course, IDP managers are less concerned with how free agency impacts players' paychecks than how it affects their fantasy value. For some, it means a boost—whether due to a new home or a new opportunity created by another player's departure. For others, it's a wash—business as usual. And for some, unfortunately, the past week-plus hasn't done their IDP value any favors.
We'll get to the depressing part of this column soon enough, though. We'll start by accentuating the positive and breaking down some IDP winners from free agency.
Winners
EDGE Will Anderson Jr., Houston
Danielle Hunter's checkbook may have been the biggest winner from his exodus from Minnesota to Texas, but the positive impact of his arrival on Anderson can't be ignored, either. The reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year posted 45 tackles, seven sacks, and 10 tackles for loss last season playing opposite Jonathan Greenard—not jaw-dropping numbers, but solid for a first-year edge-rusher.
Now, Anderson has a year of experience under his belt, and playing opposite Hunter should mean a lot of single-teams. The stage is set for a big Year 2 from Anderson—and top-20 IDP numbers are well within reach.
EDGE Dorrance Armstrong, Washington
Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence got most of the run when edge-rushers in Dallas were discussed last year and with good reason. But Armstrong scored nearly as many fantasy points as Lawrence last season in far fewer snaps—the 26-year-old has 16 sacks over the last two seasons despite not playing 550 snaps in either campaign.
Armstrong will get his chance to be a full-time player in 2024—the Commanders didn't give the seventh-year veteran $11 million a season to rotate. The edge spot opposite Armstrong in Washington remains a question mark unless Dante Fowler can recapture past glories, but the Commanders have a formidable pair of tackles in DaRon Payne and Jonathan Allen. There could be quiet DL2 value here.
LB Azeez Al-Shaair, Houston
Danielle Hunter wasn't the only player who got a fat check from the Texans last week—Al-Shaair got $34 million over three seasons to depart the Tennessee Titans for Houston. One of my favorite breakout picks a season ago, Al-Shaair didn't disappoint, piling up 163 total tackles (84 solo), adding two sacks, and finishing just outside the top-12 in fantasy points at his position.
In Houston, Al-Shaair will be reunited with DeMeco Ryans, who was his former position coach and coordinator in San Francisco. Given his annual salary, Al-Shaair wasn't brought in to be a part-time player, and with Blake Cashman and Denzel Perryman both gone, there should be tackle opportunities galore for the 26-year-old.
LB Jordan Hicks, Cleveland
At this point in his career, it's fair to call Hicks a veteran journeyman—the Browns will be the 31-year-old's third team in four seasons and fourth overall. What you cannot call Hicks is unproductive—dating back to his first season with the Arizona Cardinals, Hicks has logged five straight 100-stop seasons, including 107 in 13 games with the Minnesota Vikings in 2023.
Hicks has finished inside LB2 territory each of the past three seasons, and he has familiarity with Jim Schwartz's defense from his time in Philadelphia. As the likely "green dot" defensive play-caller, Hicks will be staying on the field, and so long as he stays healthy, the 10th-year pro has a real shot to out-point Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
S Jeremy Chinn, Washington
In just four seasons, Chinn has seen both the IDP penthouse and the IDP outhouse. In his first two seasons, Chinn eclipsed 100 tackles and appeared headed toward elite IDP status for years to come. Last year, Chinn was a man without a role in Ejiro Evero's defense and managed just 30 total tackles in 286 snaps.
Chinn will get a second chance now with coordinator Dan Quinn in Washington, though—Kamren Curl's departure leaves the Commanders with a rather glaring hole at box safety. Quinn tends to be aggressive with his safeties, which could pave the way for a big-time rebound from Chinn in 2024.
S Brandon Jones, Denver
Jones was something of an IDP enigma over his four seasons with the Miami Dolphins. There were flashes of a player that could absolutely make a fantasy impact—the 25-year-old had 79 tackles and led all NFL defensive backs in sacks in 2021. But consistency has been an issue, whether due to injuries or being in and out of the lineup.
It doesn't appear the latter will be an issue in Denver—the cap-strapped Broncos signed Jones as a reasonably-priced replacement for Justin Simmons. How exactly Vance Joseph will utilize Jones remains to be seen. But he's the best safety on the roster and has shown the ability to produce when the snaps have been there.
Losers
EDGE Cameron Jordan, New Orleans
For years, Jordan was the model of consistency among edge-rushers—for a whopping 11 straight seasons from 2012 to 2022, Jordan never failed to hit 45 tackles or 7.5 sacks. He made eight Pro Bowls over that span and produced numerous DL1 finishes. But last year, the bottom fell out for the 34-year-old—43 tackles and just two sacks in 771 snaps.
The Saints certainly appear to have noticed Jordan's steep decline last year—the team handed Chase Young $13 million in guarantees to come to New Orleans. Given what Carl Granderson accomplished last season with the Saints (78 tackles and 8.5 sacks), it's far more likely that Young's snaps will primarily come at Jordan's expense in 2024.
EDGE D.J. Wonnum, Carolina
Wonnum doesn't have a ton of name recognition. Unlike his former teammate in Minnesota, Wonnum didn't get a big contract--$12.5 million over two years in Carolina. But the fifth-year veteran was solid for the Vikings a year ago, amassing 62 total tackles and chipping in eight sacks. It was the second time in three years the 26-year-old has hit the latter benchmark.
The problem here isn't the player. It's the landing spot. After trading Brian Burns, the Panthers went the bargain route on the edge, signing Wonnum and K'Lavon Chaisson. Neither are elite talents, but Wonnum has had a better NFL career. But that was as a complementary pass-rusher. Not "the guy." And he had Danielle Hunter at the other end of the line.
LB Cole Holcomb, Pittsburgh
A year ago, Holcomb was one of free agency's big IDP winners—despite an injury-marred 2022 campaign. The Steelers had signed Holcomb to be their new No. 1 linebacker. A rebound was predicted by many. But what we got was a virtual repeat of 2022—54 tackles in eight games before his season was ended (again) by injury.
Now, the Steelers have brought in Patrick Queen, who will likely assume the role of defensive play-caller and the quarterback of the defense. Even if Holcomb is fully recovered from last season's knee injury, his snaps are going to drop with Queen in town—potentially to the point where he's no longer a three-down linebacker.
LB Frankie Luvu, Washington
Over the past couple of seasons, Luvu has quietly emerged as one of the more physical linebackers in the NFL. In each of those seasons, Luvu tallied at least 110 tackles, and he added 12.5 sacks over that span. That success earned the 27-year-old a nice payday—just over $10 million a year on a three-year deal from the Commanders.
Luvu was a top-20 fantasy linebacker each of the past two years, and for a few days, it appeared that all was well. Then, the Commanders signed veteran Bobby Wagner, who tallied 183 tackles last year and will make the defensive play-calls in D.C. It was a signing that was, in technical terms, an IDP buzzkill for Luvu.
S Jordan Battle, Cincinnati
Battle's rookie stats admittedly aren't especially impressive at first glance. In 17 games (and seven starts), the former Alabama standout racked up 71 total tackles, a pair of sacks, and an interception. But from Week 11 to Week 17, Battle was quietly 14th among all safeties in fantasy points. There was optimism for the future.
Now, the only thing - where the safeties in Cincy are concerned - is uncertainty. The Bengals added a pair of veteran safeties in free agency, signing Geno Stone and bringing back former Bengal Vonn Bell. Someone is going to be the odd man out at safety for the Bengals this year, and if this analyst had to guess right now, for reasons that evade him, it would be Battle.
S Jonathan Owens, Chicago
There hasn't been a more dizzying safety in IDP over the past two years than Owens. Two years ago in Houston, Owens exploded out of the gate only to fade down the stretch. Last year with the Green Bay Packers, Owens spent much of the season as a reserve before posting top-15 numbers from Week 11 on after injuries forced him into the starting lineup.
The issue here is that it's probably going to take another injury to get Owens into the starting lineup in his new home in Chicago. The Bears already had one entrenched starter at safety in Jaquan Brisker, and the addition of veteran ballhawk Kevin Byard would appear to relegate Owens to third-wheel status in the Windy City.
Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Yell at him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.
