IDP The Guru and the Godfather: Week 5

John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and the Godfather will come together to answer five of that week's most pressing questions.

One month in, the 2024 IDP campaign is taking shape—or is it? It’s a tricky time of year, where the margin for error can be slim. One player’s outstanding September is another’s nothing after that. Slow starts urn around—or don’t.

That’s why the smart play is often to take each week as it comes—a season unto itself. Win in Week 5—and then worry about Week 6. As they usually are, The Guru and The Godfather are focused on the here and now.

After a little mea culpa.

That’s Latin for, “oops.”

No One's Perfect

The first four weeks of the 2024 NFL season have been one surprise after another, and it has absolutely extended to fantasy football—there is no shortage of early IDP stars we didn’t see coming and maddeningly slow starts from players we were convinced were set to explode. It’s still early, but what IDP do you feel you overvalued (and undervalued) the most?

Guru: When Patrick Queen signed with the Steelers, I thought for certain they would finally have a linebacker who would play every snap and, at the least, be someone we are comfortable starting every week. At least I was half right since Queen has been on the field for every defensive snap. When it comes to the production part, the joke is on me. Not only has he fallen short of an every-week must-start, but the guy is barely inside the Top 60 at the position and is closer to being waiver fodder than a starter. If it were not for the approaching bye-week apocalypse, he wouldn’t be worth a roster spot.

I was high on Nick Cross of the Indianapolis Colts when he was a rookie. That didn’t work out very well, so I was not all that optimistic when he was named the starting free safety on a defense where the free safety had not been productive in recent memory. As it turns out, the scheme has been tweaked and Cross is not liming up deep on every play. Not only has he been a great play week in and week out, but he is also currently the highest-scoring safety.

Godfather: Really? The first question of the week, and you literally stole both guys I was gonna mention? What the hell, man?

Bobby Okereke of the New York Giants hasn’t disappointed on the same level as Queen, but he ranks outside the top 30 linebackers for the season—and I have no idea why. It’s not like we haven’t seen him produce in this defense—he logged 149 total tackles and finished as the LB8 in fantasy points. Maybe it’s just a slow start, but watching him get out-pointed by Micah McFadden on a weekly basis has been—frustrating.

Since The Guru established a theme for the surprise stars of September, who had Quentin Lake of the Los Angeles Rams pegged as a top-10 safety entering this season? No one—that’s who. Lake had 10 or more tackles in his first three games of the season, and then when that streak broke, he compensated with a sack last week in Chicago.

Guys like Cross and Lake are the reason why you should never pay retail for defensive backs, kids.

Into the Trenches

Enough with the past. It’s done. On to the future—and the defensive line. Which DL is fixing to wreck a game in Week 5, and which one is set to pull a David Copperfield and make his stats disappear?

The Broncos defense has been one of the big surprises of the season thus far. They are playing lights out football including a pass rush that is second only to the Vikings in sacks with 16. Add that to a matchup with the Raiders, who have given up 14, and you have a formula for a monster game from edge rusher Jonathon Cooper.

Danielle Hunter entered the season with huge expectations. He had a big game in week two but has otherwise been very quiet. I’m a believer in him for the long haul and expect a big rebound down the road but I’m not counting on it starting this week. Josh Allen is one of the toughest quarterback to sack, thus the Bills have allowed just five on the season and only one of those was recorded by an edge defender.

Godfather: I just can’t with you this week. Add Cooper to the list. Stop reading my mind, you creep!

Rashan Gary of the Green Bay Packers has been a significant disappointment for fantasy managers this season—just nine total tackles and a single sack in four games this year. But sometimes edge rushers just need some patience, and this week that patience will be rewarded—the Los Angeles Rams have been decimated by injuries on the offensive line, and the team has surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to defensive ends in 2024.

Norton’s Hunter call is spot-on and applies to batterymate Will Anderson Jr. as well. But there are actually three quarterbacks in the NFL who have been sacked less than Josh Allen, and one of them is Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens. Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson has never been a big tackle producer—he relies on sacks for most of his IDP production. With it unlikely he’ll get one in Week 5, he’s a risky DL2 play.

Line Up the Linebackers

The linebacker position is a disaster right now—the list of banged-up big names causes carpal tunnel to type and a raging migraine to think about. Fight through the pain to identify one linebacker set to smash expectations and another who could make a bad situation at the position even worse.

Guru: Anytime you need a linebacker that can be counted on for good production with the potential for great, see who Bobby Wagner of the Washington Commanders is playing that week. He’s a tackling machine with big play potential and is facing a Cleveland offense that is a great matchup. The Browns can’t throw the ball downfield, so completed passes are usually in front of the linebackers, and no one has ever accused Deshaun Watson of being overly careful with the ball. Opposing linebackers as a position are averaging 19 combined tackles, more than one sack, and half a turnover. Only the Saints and Titans have given up more points to linebackers thus far.

A matchup of the Jacksonville offense and the Colts defense is like a stoppable force meeting a moveable object. It’s hard to say if either will prosper. What we do know is that off-ball linebackers as a position, are averaging less than thirteen combined tackles versus the Jaguars and have produced one splash play in four games. That doesn’t bode well for E.J. Speed or especially Zaire Franklin, who has been out-produced by Speed in three of four games. 

Godfather: Bobby Wagner? Don’t hurt yourself reaching, pal.

What? I’m in a mood.

Troy Reeder of the Los Angeles Rams is most assuredly a card-carrying member of the Anzalone Association—productive fantasy assets who are average NFL players at best. And part of the Green Bay Packers ranking at the top of the NFL in fantasy points allowed to linebackers is the result of two Malik Willis starts. But Reeder still has the makings of a top-20 linebacker in a game where Josh Jacobs will find the end zone for the first time in 2024.

The flip side of that matchup is one of those IDP stats that’s a little…odd. Running back Kyren Williams is about the only thing working for the Los Angeles Rams offense, but the team still sits toward the bottom of the NFL in fantasy points allowed to linebackers because of an inability to maintain drives. That doesn’t bode especially well for Green Bay’s Quay Walker, who has already gotten off to a rather sluggish fantasy start.

Defensive Back Breakdown

On to defensive backs—because they deserve love, too. Select one defensive back about to give IDP managers a badly needed boost and another who could remind them why The Godfather gets so aggravated by the position.

Guru: Budda Baker of the Arizona Cardinals could be your game-winner this week. He’s currently on pace for triple-digit solo tackles and over 50 assists. That pace will be tough to sustain, but this week’s matchup with San Francisco should help. Even with a healthy Fred Warner, the 49ers have given up the second most fantasy points to safeties. The points are coming in from all directions. The safety position is averaging just shy of 20 combined tackles, a pass breakup, and one splash play per game against them.

Despite 11 tackles and 6 assists on the year, Xavier McKinney of the Packers is currently the fantasy game’s third-ranked safety. An interception in every game will make things like that happen. Safeties have been making a lot of tackles against the Rams, but McKinney’s role as the deep man in a scheme that features a lot of single high and cover-2 looks likely to neutralize that advantage. And few quarterbacks in the league take better care of the ball than Matthew Stafford. The interception streak has to end sometime, and the matchup suggests it could be this week. 

Godfather: Why the hell not? Already mentioned him in this week’s column. Quentin Lake of the Rams hasn’t just been productive over the first month of the season. He has also been that rarest of things at defensive back—consistently productive. There hasn’t been a down week yet, and I don’t expect there will be in Week 5 either. Opponents are going at Lake in coverage over the middle, and the Packers absolutely have the receiving talent to follow suit. They are also fifth in fantasy points given up to safeties.

When Aaron Rodgers was quarterback in Green Bay, the Packers understandably perennially ranked toward the bottom of the NFL in fantasy points allowed to defensive backs—he just doesn’t make mistakes with the ball. That has now carried over to the New York Jets, who have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to safeties this year. IDP managers unhappy about the slow start from Camryn Bynum of the Vikings aren’t going to be smiling come Monday.

Sleeper Alert

It’s a week where many IDP managers could badly use some points from an under-the-radar fantasy option. Hit on a sleeper smash that becomes the difference between 1-4 and a season falling apart and 2-3 and back in it. Hit on one at each position. No pressure.

Guru: I spent much of the offseason pimping Washington edge rusher Dorance Armstrong as one of my favorite edge sleepers. He, and much of the Commanders defense, slept through the first three games before waking up with some big numbers last week. It’s too early to tell if week four was a coming-out party for Armstrong, but a matchup with the Browns certainly helps his odds of having another big game. Cleveland has allowed 19 sacks to date, two more than any other team.

As some of you might remember, my bold linebacker prediction this year is that Drue Tranquill will have more fantasy points than Nick Bolton for the Kansas City Chiefs at the end of the year. Week 4 was the first time Tranquill outscored Bolton; this week could be the second. The fact is, both players should have good numbers in this one since New Orleans is currently the top matchup for linebackers. I like Tranquill here because the Saints like to get Alvin Kamara the ball in the flats on checkdowns and screens, and they like to run him off tackle or wide. I can see that leading to more opportunities for Tranquill.

Isaiah Pola-Mao took over at safety for the injured Marcus Epps last week and quietly put up good numbers for the Las Vegas Raiders (4-2-1). He might have looked even better on the field than the numbers suggest. The Broncos haven’t been scoring a lot of points, but their offense has been better than those numbers suggest. Denver runs a lot of plays, and opposing safeties have been the beneficiary. Safeties are averaging just shy of 20 combined tackles, a turnover, and a pass defended against them. Palo-Mao might not be a sleeper for anyone after this week.

Godfather: How did I know that The Guru would hit Armstrong? Great minds think alike, I guess.

Chop Robinson is getting the deep end of the pool treatment with the Miami Dolphins—with Jaelan Phillips out for the year, the rookie edge rusher will get snaps now whether he’s ready or not. For a Dolphins team that desperately needs a win to hit their bye at 2-3. The Patriots have allowed more sacks than any team not called the Clowns (Yep. I’m bitter again.) this year. Call it a hunch—but Robinson notches his first career sack Sunday.

Speaking of youngsters getting to learn by doing, Trevin Wallace of the Carolina Panthers will be doing it the rest of the year—not only will the rookie likely be Carolina’s “green dot” linebacker for the duration after Shaq Thompson went down, but Josey Jewell probably isn’t playing in Week 5, either. The Chicago Bears aren’t a great linebacker matchup, but after they finally got D’Andre Swift going in Week 4 there’s room for that to improve.

Pola-Mao is a great story—his first kid was born the day after his first start, Troy Polamalu is his uncle—and he’s a rock-solid IDP play in Week 5. But I’ll go all rookies with Buffalo’s Cole Bishop. Bishop’s downhill, old-school playing style in college is all kinds of IDP-friendly, and with Taylor Rapp in concussion protocol Bishop is probably making his first NFL start in a favorable IDP matchup with Houston.

I don’t think any babies are imminent, though.