John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry.
It's Week 16 of the 2025 season—and that means in most IDP leagues it's Semifinals Week. Get a victory this week, and it's on to the Championship Game. Come up short, and that's that—the season is over just short of the ultimate goal.
Given that, IDP managers have no margin for error this week. Every lineup decision could be the one that makes or breaks not only Week 16 but the entire season. It's enough pressure to inspire a panic attack.
But instead of freaking out, fantasy managers should chill. They have a secret weapon going into Week 16.
Two of them, in fact.
Inside Out
It's Semifinals Week, and IDP managers need two things this week—advice and some good old-fashioned luck. We can't help with the latter, but we'll start offering the former by throwing a bone to managers in IDP leagues that require defensive tackles and cornerbacks.
Identify one non-obvious start at both of those positions in Week 16.
Guru: I'll stick with the same philosophy on this one that I've subscribed to for the last two months or so: find the top option on the team that is playing the Raiders. This week, that is Tommy Togiai of the Texans. You've heard the spiel before. The Raiders can't block anyone and have given up five sacks (approximately) per game, yadda, yadda. This time, there is a little added juice in that Togiai is a player on the rise over the last several games. He had 10 tackles and a sack against the Chiefs two weeks ago and has been putting up good tackle totals (for a tackle) since week 10. The matchup enhances his shot at a big-play contribution, and he has a pretty safe floor.
Likewise, my top streaming targets at corner over the last few weeks have been whoever gets to play the Bengals. Specifically, whoever will be covering Ja'Marr Chase, if that can be defined. This week, I think that will be Rasul Douglas, though Jack Jones is in play as well, especially if Tee Higgins plays. I don't expect Douglas to necessarily shadow Chase, but he is significantly bigger at 6-foot-2 and 209 pounds and more physical than the 5-foot-11, 175-pound Jones. Chase is a physical receiver, so I think Miami would much rather have Douglas on him, even if it's just to get him on the ground after the catch.
Godfather: The Guru is trying the old reverse-jinx on me with the Douglas call—we tend to play against one another with some regularity this time of year, and I'm rolling Douglas out against him as my latest "Frankencorner."
The Godfather learned from the best.
The New Orleans Saints aren't exactly an offensive dynamo, but the team has given up the third-most fantasy points to cornerbacks in The Godfather's Default IDP Scoring. With Sauce Gardner gone, Brandon Stephens is easily the best cornerback the New York Jets have. That's going to mean a lot of time covering Chris Olave in Week 16. And with Stephens, targets usually mean tackles.
Love the Togiai call too, especially in a week short on solid streaming plays at defensive tackle. Minnesota's Jonathan Allen wasn't supposed to be a dart-throw play—just ask the Vikings. Jalen Redmond is rightfully ranked highly this week against a New York Giants team giving up the second-most fantasy points to interior linemen this year. But Allen is a sneaky-good IDP play as well.
Line Them Up
Now it's time to hit the "Big 3" positions—starting with the defensive line.
Which surprise star on the defensive line is going to wreak havoc in Week 16? Which prominent defensive linemen could go full Krispy Kreme and throw up a donut at the worst possible time?
Guru: I'm rolling with Dallas Turner of the Vikings as my upside edge defender this week. It's been a couple of games since he put a mark in the sack column, but with four in the previous three games, the potential is there. Turner was taking turns starting for Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard, who were in and out of the lineup with minor injuries for a spell. Turner, the former first-round pick, filled in admirably. Now that Greenard has been shut down for the remainder of the season, it is Turner's job. The Vikings don't shuffle a lot of guys in, and will likely run a three-man rotation with Turner and Van Ginkel both working on north of 70% of the snaps. Then, there is the matchup. The Giants were mediocre there early in the year. Since week ten, however, they have allowed the tenth most points to the position. Not stellar but well above average.
I'm nervous about Josh Hines-Allen of the Jaguars in the matchup with Denver. It would be easy to be lured in by his hot streak that included 6.5 sacks over six games, but that streak came to an ugly, abrupt halt when Hines-Allen was a 1-1 bust in the juicy matchup with the Jets last week. He's been streaky throughout his career and has a history of earning the confidence of fantasy managers just in time to sink them in crunch time. Then there are the Broncos, who have allowed the third fewest points to the position on the year.
Godfather: Buffalo Bills edge rusher Greg Rousseau hasn't been able to back up his career year in 2024 this season—after 53 total tackles and eight sacks last year, the fifth-year veteran has managed just four so far this season. But one of those sacks came last week against the New England Patriots, and Rousseau will log his fifth Sunday in a plus IDP matchup with the Cleveland Browns.
Josh Sweat has been a bright spot in a dark season for the Arizona Cardinals—in his first year with the Redbirds, Sweat has tied his career high with 11 sacks and is ranked among the top-15 defensive linemen this season. But Sweat has been invisible of late, managing just a single assist over the past two games combined. That funk won't be broken out of in a bottom-five matchup for edge rushers with the Atlanta Falcons.
Linebackers, Tigers, and Bears—Oh My!
IDP managers probably aren't winning the championship without solid production from the linebacker position.
Which linebacker is going to rise from relative obscurity to post a timely stat line this week? Which prominent linebacker is most at risk of coming up short when fantasy managers can least afford it?
Guru: Akeem Davis-Gaither of the Cardinals may not be all that obscure, but he has certainly not been an every-week start for us. The Falcons have been a hit-or-miss matchup over the last several weeks. When they get Bijan Robinson going, linebackers are busy. I expect Robinson to see a lot of work in this one. That is not the biggest factor in this call, though. With Cody Simon nursing a knee injury that he suffered early in Week 15, Davis-Gaither stepped into the lead role and played every snap for the first time this season. Simon participated in a few drills on Wednesday. The Thursday practice report is not yet available as I write this, so he is not a lock to sit. Keep a close eye on his status and the team's final injury report on Friday.
The Saints were a strong matchup for linebackers when Alvin Kamara was playing. Without Kamara, not so much. Over the last two weeks, Lavonte David and SirVocea Dennis combined for four tackles and three assists, while Christian Rozeboom and Trevin Wallace totaled three solos and six assists. With the injury to Devin Neal, the Saints are now down to their number three running back. That's enough to scare me away from Jamien Sherwood and Quincy Williams.
Godfather: The Los Angeles Chargers have been leaning harder than ever on the run game with Justin Herbert nursing a broken left hand, and as a result, the Bolts have given up the third-most fantasy points to linebackers this season. That should mean big things this week for DeMarvion Overshown of the Dallas Cowboys, who is back in a full-time role after missing much of the season while rehabbing a torn ACL suffered late in the 2024 season.
Bagging on Sherwood is a regular jinx from The Guru (although he's sadly correct), and longtime IDP stalwart Bobby Wagner of the Washington Commanders also has a seat on the S.S. Season-Sinker. Wagner is fifth in the league with 137 total tackles for the season, but over half of those stops have been assists, and this week he faces a Philadelphia Eagles team giving up the fewest fantasy points in the NFC to linebackers.
Man Coverage
Defensive backs are notoriously unpredictable, but choosing correctly this week could mean a shot at the Championship Game.
Who is this week's winning lottery ticket in the secondary? Which higher-end option is most likely to vanish and leave IDP managers holding a fat bag of nothing?
Guru: If you play the IDP lottery this week, make sure that Reed Blankenship's number 32 is on your ticket. His picture might be on the side of milk cartons after last week, but it's hard for a safety to make plays when the opponent doesn't move the ball or score any points. Blankenship reached double-digit points in four of the five previous games, including 14 solo stops and eight assists between weeks 13 and 14. The Commanders were not much of a matchup for safeties early on, but that changed with Marcus Mariota under center. They have given up the third most points to the position since Week 10.
Godfather: Apparently, The Guru is such a bastion of positivity that he isn't even going there with a downer defensive back for Week 16. Don't worry, valued readers—The Godfather is all about negativity and disappointment.
Chamarri Conner of the Kansas City Chiefs has been the kind of defensive back this analyst lives for—a late-round dart-throw or waiver pickup who ranks inside the top 20 in fantasy points among safeties for the season. But this wee,k Conner and the Chiefs face a Tennessee Titans team that has struggled to move the ball consistently on offense this season—only the Pittsburgh Steelers have given up fewer fantasy points to safeties this year.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, only the Jacksonville Jaguars have surrendered more fantasy points to safeties than the Indianapolis Colts. The insertion of Philip Rivers at quarterback knocks a bit of the shine off this matchup, but we saw Nick Emmanwori of the Seattle Seahawks have a day against Indy in Week 14, and Malik Mustapha of the San Francisco 49ers should enjoy similar success against the Colts on Monday night.
Playing Tag
This is simple. Just like the kids' game. And Davenport.
"Tag" one IDP (Any position—dealer's choice) ranked outside the top 40 in Footballguys Week 16 IDP rankings at their position who will wind up a viable (top 24) fantasy starter.
While you're at it, tag one inside the top 15 who will finish outside the top 30. A little boom/bust action. Who is "it"—for better or worse.
Guru: Injuries provide opportunities, and there may be no better one this week than James Williams Sr. of the Titans. Cedric Gray has been one of this season's biggest fantasy surprises, racking up huge tackle totals for a bad Titans team. He left last week's game with a fourth-quarter concussion and is not practicing as of Thursday. Williams entered training camp as the expected starter and was the replacement when Gray left last week. He had four solo tackles on twelve snaps in that game.
We currently have Geno Stone of the Cincinnati Bengals as the #14 safety for Week 16. Don't drink that Kool-Aid. Stone has turned in some good games along the way, largely because the Bengals' front seven has been horrible. That part remains true, but it is also true that the Dolphins have benched Tua Tagovailoa and are starting seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers in this game. Yes, Miami has leaned heavily on the running game of late. That has not stopped them from allowing less than 11 combined stops per game to the safety position since Week 10.
Godfather: New York Giants linebacker Darius Muasau (LB49) made his return to action for the Giants last week, playing about 80 percent of the defensive snaps and leading Big Blue with 11 total tackles. He'll post similar numbers this week against a Minnesota Vikings team that ranks just outside the top 10 in fantasy points surrendered to linebackers this season.
Buffalo Bills safety Cole Bishop (S11) has been solid for fantasy managers this season—he's 10th in fantasy points at his position for the year. The Browns have also been a favorable fantasy matchup for safeties this year. But the Cleveland offense struggles enough to move the ball when the weather's nice. The weather on the shores of Lake Erie this weekend is not expected to be nice.
John Norton (The Guru) and Gary Davenport (The Godfather of IDP) have over 45 combined years of IDP experience. Follow John on Twitter (still not calling it X, so there) at @JohnPNorton and Gary at @IDPGodfather.
