IDP The Guru and the Godfather: Week 15

John Norton ("The Guru") and Gary Davenport ("The Godfather of IDP") are two of the most experienced and knowledgeable IDP analysts in the fantasy football industry. Every week during the 2024 season here at Footballguys, The Guru and The Godfather will come together to offer guidance for the week to come.

Week 15 of the 2024 fantasy football season is here—and the fantasy playoffs are here along with it. From here out, losing isn't an option. Defeat ends the season. Victory gets IDP managers one step closer to the ultimate goal.

Given those increased stakes, fantasy managers can use every bit of advice and guidance they can get their hands on.

And The Guru and The Godfather are here to offer up some of both to help folks keep the season going.

Defensive Line Hits (and Misses)

As you may be aware, the playoffs are underway in most IDP leagues. Fantasy managers don't want philosophical pontifications on the nature of fantasy vs. reality vis-a-vis linebackers—they want a trophy to hold over their vanquished foes. So, let's get to it.

One defensive lineman set to surpass expectations. One who won't sniff them. Begin.

Guru: Andrew Van Ginkel of the Vikings is my pick to be the highest-scoring edge defender in week 15, and Jonathan Greenard could be his closest competition. These two have to be licking their chops in anticipation of the matchup with Chicago. Da Bears have given up the most points to edge defenders since week seven and it's not all that close. If I said they were allowing 3.1 sacks per game, everyone would agree that is a lot. Chicago is allowing 3.1 per game just to the edge guys and 4.9 overall. It's not just the sacks, either. Edge defenders have averaged better than nine tackles over that span as well. That is enough to tank in the top third of the league. 

The Bengals are struggling to win games, but it's not because of their offense or offensive line. Edge defenders don't make many tackles against them, so the floor is low. They are even more stingy when it comes to sacks. Over their last seven games, the edge position has dropped Joe Burrow six times. Three of those came in one game against Pittsburgh. In four of those seven contests, the pass rushers were blanked. That doesn't bode well for Harold Landry III of the Titans.

Godfather: Given how mobile Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is and how stout Philly's offensive line is, one might think the team would be a bad matchup for edge rushers. One would be wrong—the Eagles have allowed 36 sacks and the ninth-most fantasy points to defensive ends. We shouldn't have to tell you that T.J. Watt of the Steelers is a must-start (um, always), but batterymate Alex Highsmith is a solid play as well after logging a sack in his return to action last week.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is equally mobile (if not more so), and he is a very hard quarterback to sack—Jackson has been dropped less than 20 times all season long, and Baltimore ranks in the middle of the pack in fantasy points surrendered to defensive ends. New York Giants edge rusher Brian Burns has already been something of a disappointment. That won't change this week.  

Lining Up Linebackers

If you're still alive at this point in the season, your cadre of linebackers is probably pretty solid. But there are exceptions to that rule, and in the playoffs, one bad stat line can torpedo the whole season.

Identify a linebacker outside the top 30 in this week's Footballguys IDP rankings who will blow up in Week 15. And one inside the top 20 that gives you pause.

Guru: I'll roll with Neville Hewitt of the Texans as my high-side guy. This one is not so much due to the matchup as Miami is a middle-of-the-pack when it comes to points allowed to linebackers. I'm high on Hewitt because he's a tackling machine when he gets to play and will contribute in the splash play columns at a high rate as well. Hewitt has three starts on the season with a significant amount of playing time in five. In those games, he has 40 total stops, 3 turnovers, and 3 pass breakups. Two of those games were against the Colts and Jets, who rank 31st and 28th, respectively, in points allowed to linebackers. Hewitt was over 14 points against each of them.

Unlike the Hewitt pick, Quay Walker of the Packers scares me purely because of the matchup. Not only are the Seahawks last in points allowed to linebackers over the second half of the fantasy season, they are averaging three points fewer per game than the 31st-ranked team. That is a HUGE margin by fantasy football standards. The league average of points per game allowed to linebackers is 25.3. Seattle gives up 16.8. At six solo tackles per game, it's a wonder they are even that high.

Godfather: Hewitt has the potential to be remembered fondly in the months to come—getting a guy that productive off the waiver wire this late is how IDP leagues are won.

It has been a disappointing season for the New Orleans Saints, and at 35 years young, Demario Davis is probably nearing the end of the proverbial line. But if this is it for Davis, the two-time Pro Bowler has a chance to out with a bang—this week, the Saints face a Washington Commanders team that ranks inside the top-five in both fantasy points given up to linebackers and in tackle opportunities allowed per game.

The Guru is absolutely right to be afraid of the Seahawks as a fantasy matchup for linebackers, and there's another rotten one coming during the Monday night doubleheader. The Atlanta Falcons have been mired near the bottom of the league in fantasy points allowed to linebackers most of the 2024 season. While Robert Spillane has been exactly the sort of consistent IDP asset we expected this year, the deck is stacked against the seventh-year veteran in Week 15.