Chris Godwin, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel Sr., Mike Evans, and DK Metcalf headline the injuries that cost them most of Week 7. It leaves mid-range to long-term holes in the Buccaneers, Seahawks, and 49ers passing games.
Welcome to Week 8 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- Fantasy True or False
- Real or Fool's Gold, TE Edition
- Who Benefits From Recent Lineup Changes
- QBs Suffering Due to Other Injuries (see below)
Let's roll.
QBs Suffering Due to Other Injuries
Also known as "The Fantasy Trauma Olympics."
Matt Waldman Each of these quarterbacks has lost major talent due to injury.
Who will see the biggest decline in fantasy production? Name a WR/TE who steps up as a fantasy value in the passing game for the QB you picked.
Joseph Haggan: Baker Mayfield is currently the QB2 overall, but he did so with one of the best-receiving tandems in the NFL. Replacing Evans and Godwin will be a mix of rookie Jalen McMillan, veteran Sterling Shepard, and Trey Palmer. This is a big step down for Mayfield.
I expect McMillan to be the de facto WR1, having the most talent and upside of the group. Tight end Cade Otton likely will step up the most for the Buccaneers. Otton has become a safety blanket for Mayfield.
He has seen less than six targets once in his last five games and has 37 targets in that span. Otton had his first 100-yard receiving game in Week 7 in the absence of Evans. His target share will be steady, and he is a fringe TE1 for the remainder of the season.
Justin Howe: Mayfield seems like the obvious choice here. Both Purdy and Smith should get their missing weapons back relatively soon, and both still have a few viable options in the meantime. I worry tremendously about Mayfield and this air attack in general, with Godwin shelved for the year.
Mayfield has leaned heavily on his slot man, to the tune of a 27% target rate and 5 of his 18 touchdowns. More than a mere slot specialist, Godwin helps keep the heat off Mike Evans, who's been bumpy and inefficient all season. Evans' 57.8% catch rate sits 147th among qualifying pass-catchers, and his 7.4 yards per target is on pace for a career-low.
On the other hand, Godwin sat 39th in catch rate and 25th in yardage rate. Without that kind of efficiency, it's hard to see Mayfield closing the year on the same tear he's opened on. No other Buccaneer – not Cade Otton, not Sterling Shepard – is above 6.8 yards per throw.
It's also hard to imagine Evans getting more efficient and productive with Godwin on the bench. There's likely too much talent for this offense to collapse, but Mayfield looks like a clear regression candidate, and I doubt Evans will merely absorb Godwin's numbers.
I agree with Joseph about Otton. He'll likely earn the best opportunities on zone coverage, and there's a preexisting rapport between him and Mayfield.