Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison Jr., and C.J. Stroud have been dramatically worse in October than their overall fantasy rankings this year. What does the Footballguys staff think about their fantasy value for the rest of the year?
Welcome to Week 10 of the 2024 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- The Cowboys Without Prescott
- Midseason Grab Bag
- Would You Rather, Dynasty Edition
- Dump, Bench, and Start (see below)
Let's roll.
Dump, Bench, Start
Matt Waldman: Since Week 6, these players have drastically underperformed relative to their overall fantasy ranking.
- WR10 Jayden Reed (WR30 since Week 6)
- WR21 Marvin Harrison Jr., Jr. (WR 45 since Week 6)
- QB14 C.J. Stroud (QB21 since Week 6)
Pick one to Dump, one to Bench, and one to Start. Our readers know that you aren't likely to dump any of them in a real league.
Gary Davenport: My “Start” here would be Harrison. Yes, his numbers haven’t been great. But the talent is undeniable, and he’s always just one long pass away from a big stat line.
The “Bench” is Stroud. Injuries have had as much to do with Stroud’s drop-off in production as the quarterback himself, and the return of Nico Collins (possibly as soon as this week) should give Stroud a boost.
That leaves Reed as the “Dump.” The Green Bay Packers are loaded with young talent at wide receiver, and while it’s a good problem for the team to have from an NFL perspective, the havoc it wreaks on target share isn’t going away anytime soon.
Justin Howe: Harrison, who’s very, very good at football, is my start. We saw two weeks ago that, when a Cardinals game is competitive, they’ll be looking to involve Harrison early and often.
His raw numbers haven’t impressed, but the 22% target share has been solid, especially since he’s being used primarily down the field.
Harrison’s sky-high 14.6 aDOT and basement-low 51% catch rate look like early outliers. Before long, I expect he’ll be drawing consistent 8-12 targets a game – and winning downfield more often than not.
Waldman: His catch rate isn't an outlier based on his film. I pointed out this week that most of the football media has glossed over his real issues as a pass catcher. While I agree he is talented and likely remains a viable fantasy option, I would not anoint him an immediate top-15 fantasy WR with the problems he has winning against man coverage. I am also concerned he returns to startable fantasy value in two-WR sets this year.
Howe: I like Jordan Love and his weapons, but this is (a) a crowded group that doesn’t offer predictable volume and (b) a touchdown-dependent group that needs the red zone to produce. Since the start of last season, only the Cowboys have thrown more near the goal line than these Packers. All those touchdowns have obscured the fact that no Packer has claimed more than 17% of team targets. That makes all of them – including Reed, who’s only topped 8 targets once in 25 NFL games – tough to project week-to-week. Chasing touchdowns is tricky; I prefer to chase catches and yards, which lead to touchdowns. I'm benching Reed.
Dump Stroud, as I’m doing this week in my highest-leverage league (in a deal for Brock Purdy). Stroud still very much looks the part of an NFL cornerstone, but the numbers simply aren’t there right now. And if you have a Purdy or a Baker Mayfield in reserve, there’s no reason to chase them. At the moment, Stroud looks hampered by a shaky front line that’s forcing him to move early and often. He’s capable, but that’s not his game. He doesn’t need to be prioritized right now; there are 12-15 other guys with similar floors and ceilings.
Sam Wagman: Dump: Marvin Harrison Jr. He has had a rough time being consistent in the Cardinals' offense. This is understandable, given there is no real second weapon to draw attention away from him and the Cardinals have been a run-heavy attack to start. This does not seem to be ending, despite defensive struggles.
Waldman: Sam, Tre McBride is TE4 in PPR formats this year and in a combined WR/TE ranking, McBride sits 22nd among fantasy point-getters at these two positions. He's a low-end WR2. I'd argue that's a real second weapon.
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