The Top 10: The Cliff's Notes
- Malik Nabers is easily the best rookie WR of this class. He might remain a top-5 fantasy WR.
- Andy Dalton's quick reads, accuracy, and aggression could breathe life into the Panthers' offense as a good match-up against no worse than middling defenses.
- Malik Willis has been working on his game. In Matt LaFleur's offense, he'll continue to have starter upside.
- Kyler Murray is a match-up starter with legitimate flaws. Against good defenses, he won't deliver as frequently as promised.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. is a good fantasy option who will deliver against bad defenses, but he has flaws that keep him from the buzz the public wants to assign.
- Calvin Austin III has the skills to become a low-end fantasy asset and is worth adding for a few weeks.
- Dallas Goedert is serviceable as the primary option in Philadelphia until the starting WRs return.
- Jauan Jennings is Brandon Marshall's plucky younger brother who feasted on an awful pass defense. He's a startable reserve but not likely to emerge as a fantasy star.
- Jordan Mason mitigates losses. This is an underrated indicator of success for NFL RBs.
- 10 other things I noticed that might help you.
1. Malik Nabers (And It Wasn't Close...)
Marvin Harrison Jr. had the buzz, the draft capital, the favor of the height/weight obsessives, and he has the superior quarterback. It doesn't matter, Nabers was better, is better, and when judging them on skill level, it's not that close.
It's not too early to say it, either. There's a significant gap between Nabers' technical and conceptual grasp of his position and the game compared to the rest of the wide receivers from this impressive draft class. The only way Marvin Harrison Jr. outperforms Nabers this year will be injury -- to Nabers or Daniel Jones and Drew Lock.
Nabers wins the ball in one-on-one contested scenarios. He understands how to track, position himself, and attack the ball.
This is what a jump up and through can do even when the DB has position.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 22, 2024
More tape for Treylon Burks to study. Burks ain’t alone https://t.co/xFbgIhpbkQ
Harrison is only good at it (see below) when his back is to the quarterback. Nabers is also a more versatile receiver based on where a team can align him and the variety of routes he can run.
There are only three routes Harrison has run that Nabers hasn't thus far. There are five routes Nabers has run that Harrison hasn't.
Speaking of routes, the break with this route is as impressive as the acrobatic grab.
Great but more impressed with Nabers’ break. https://t.co/7SGWfvoBri
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 22, 2024
Most impressive is Nabers' knowledge of the game within the game. On a direct snap inside the Cleveland five-yard-line, Nabers realized Cleveland strung out the perimeter run and threw the ball away rather than take a loss.
Harrison is a terrific prospect and should remain a startable fantasy receiver this year. Nabers is on a different level.
2. Andy Dalton Resuscitated the Panthers Offense
The Raiders' defense had gotten pressure early in the year, but Dalton carved up Vegas with quick, accurate, and aggressive passing.
Andy Dalton with mini-clinic on working between two high safeties and reading leverage against it. #PantherPride pic.twitter.com/O5Z9IPGC5v
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 23, 2024
Bryce Young seemed too overwhelmed with details to make the leverage reads that we saw Dalton make with ease this weekend.
Andy Dalton splitting two LBs to find Xavier Leggett for 35. #Panthers pic.twitter.com/ExJnzI83xD
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 23, 2024
This throw is one to remember, especially when I broach Kyler Murray's similar read that led to an interception in the red zone that could have made the Detroit game close.
Andy Dalton reads the outside shade CB and the high safety squatting on Diontae Johnson's route to fire it between the defenders up the seam to Adam Thielen for a 31-yard TD. #Panthers pic.twitter.com/RkDlXqBk5m
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 23, 2024
Will Dalton make the Panthers competitive every week? If the offensive line and receiving corps stay intact, yes. Will he riddle defenses for top-five production every week? Unlikely.
Dalton has a top-15 fantasy QB upside that's likely in the bottom third of that range.
3. Credit Malik Willis And Matt LaFleur
The common theme you'll hear about this month is how Malik Willis and Sam Darnold got kicked out of the organizations that drafted them only to resurface as productive passers this month. The X's and O's silo of the Internet will use Willis and Darnold as poster boys for their agenda that a quality scheme can be the difference between success and failure.
The X's and O's silo errs to the side of the scheme rather than the talent. They are also hyperfocused on the plays and not the technical and conceptual growth of players.
I saw many an analyst on X ask why the Titans couldn't create a winning scheme for Willis as LaFleur did. I haven't seen these analysts address the craptastic offensive line and unrefined skill talent in Tennessee relative to Green Bay or Minnesota.
The longer I do this, the more incredulous it is to me that the general population overlooks the value of trench play when analyzing football. If there's evidence that aliens exist and erase our memories of their interactions with us, it's the fact that football fans discuss the value of quarterbacks and running backs without acknowledging the gravity of good/bad trench play.
Give a quarterback time in the pocket, and it's easier to see where that player's development is heading. In the case of Willis, it's clear he has been working at his craft since his seasons at Liberty.
Green Bay created its share of designed runs, screens, and misdirection plays where the play design created one read and got that read open. These are the plays LaFleur deserves credit for putting Willis in a position to win as an athletic cog in the Packers' machine.
Nice early schemed play for Malik Willis and Jayden Reed to generate misdirection. #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/zfAINBXBHR
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 24, 2024
Willis also displayed decision-making acumen, manipulation of defenders, and accuracy that quarterbacks use to create open targets that are separate from the play design.
Malik Willis to Christian Watson on the fade.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 24, 2024
Good hold of S by Willis and placement of throw to the far boundary.
Good timing, position, and attack on jump up and through by Watson#GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/vWYDTFjHzW
Malik Willis with two good leverage reads to backside dig to Romeo Doubs on 3rd and long for the conversion. #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/emsziomyM3
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 24, 2024
The first play involving the high safety is fundamental NFL quarterback play. The second is an intermediate-level play for an NFL passer. It's a sign of progress that Willis has been making behind the scenes.
Willis isn't suddenly going to learn how to manipulate and read leverage with greater craft after 3-5 weeks in Green Bay. Listen to commentators on national networks, and you'd make the assumption this is what happened.
This is where Willis deserves the credit for his work toward becoming a passer who can run plays that aren't designed to the nth degree and demand him to process multiple factors to make a throwing decision. Willis isn't all the way there. Here's a play where Willis isn't ready to make these reads.
Malik Willis hasn't had the playbook for very long in Green Bay so missed opportunities to read the flat defender and get the quick conversion w/a throw or access the backside dig between LBs is forgivable.
— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) September 24, 2024
Especially when you can gain 20 for the first down. #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/HmCLwNHDhM
It will come as no surprise that Jordan Love gets his job back as soon as he's healthy enough to play. It is a pleasant surprise that the Packers can win with Willis and that has as much to do with Willis' independent study as it does LaFleur's game plans.
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