Welcome to Week 3 of the 2025 Footballguys Roundtable. Our intrepid panel of fantasy pundits discusses and debates four topics every week. We split the conversation into separate features.
This week's roundtable features these four topics:
- The Bengals without Burrow
- Brian Thomas Jr.; Time to Panic?
- Backup QB Roulette
- Unsustainable Hot Starts
Let's roll...
Matt Waldman: Answer these two questions about the Bengals offense.
A) Does any offensive player gain in production with Browning in the lineup?
B) Who stands the most to lose with Browning in the lineup?
Let's start by considering who might have the most to gain with Browning in the lineup.
Meng Song: It's hard to argue that Browning starting is a net gain for any Bengals skill-position player in fantasy, but his presence at least may not be a death knell for Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins. We saw after Browning entered the game against Jacksonville that he's not afraid to chuck it deep to his wide receivers, for better or for worse.
Chase had 7 catches for 128 yards from Browning in Week 2, while Higgins had 5 receptions for 42 yards and a touchdown, so it's not all doom and gloom. In 2023, we saw Chase and Higgins both healthy for seven games with Joe Burrow and four games with Browning.
Chase averaged 15.1 PPR points per game (PPG) with Burrow that season and 13.8 PPR PPG with Browning. Higgins averaged 10.3 PPR PPG with Burrow and 10.2 PPR PPG with Browning.
That 13.8 PPR PPG Chase averaged with Browning would've been WR3 territory last season, and the 10.2 PPR PPG Higgins had with Browning would've been in the WR4 range last year.
It's a small sample size, but the change at quarterback may hurt Higgins less than it will Chase. While it's just a guess, here's my take as to why: Many of the big plays we see Chase make are from Burrow fitting the ball into small windows despite tight or double coverage with chemistry, arm strength, and accuracy that Browning lacks.
Jason Wood: No one, other than Jake Browning, benefits from Joe Burrow's injury. Burrow is a transcendent talent and arguably the best pure pocket passer in the NFL. Many thought he was the MVP favorite this season, which would've required 5,000 yards passing and 35-plus touchdown passes; both well within his historical range of outcomes.
Fortunately, it's not all doom and gloom, as Browning has proven in 2023, when he started the final seven games of the season, that he can keep the Bengals offense functioning. Cincinnati averaged 23.4 points per game with Browning under center. The team ranked 6th in passing yards, 2nd in yards per attempt, and 10th in touchdown passes over that span.
Still, both Cincinnati wide receivers are now risky fantasy assets I'd look to sell low if possible for two reasons. One, Chase and Higgins both project to be more volatile in fantasy scoring week to week. There will be some blowup games, but it'll be difficult to predict which weeks they will occur, as they'll rely more on garbage-time production.
Also, at what point do we see Chase and/or Higgins make business decisions? Both played late in 2023 with Browning, but the Bengals were in playoff contention then. That may not be the case by Cincinnati's Week 10 bye this season.
The Bengals may currently be 2-0 atop the division after a couple of close, ugly wins, but they'll face the Vikings this week, followed by the Broncos, Lions, and Packers. This team could go from 2-0 today to 2-4 by Week 7.
Jeff Haseley: We're expecting Jake Browning's production to be less than Joe Burrow's, so expect the same to be true for the rest of the Bengals' offense. Then again, maybe not.
In 2023, Joe Mixon maintained his three receptions per game average with Browning under center and actually improved his fantasy points per game by 46.5% thanks to 7 touchdowns in 7 games after Week 11. Mixon only had 5 touchdowns in the first 10 games.
Mixon's production increased with Browning under center. Could that mean the same for Chase Brown? Possibly.
Browning's Bengals in 2023 averaged 27.3 points per game, and his passing yards per game from Week 12 to 18 were 311.3. If Cincinnati can handle a Minnesota team in Week 3 that loves to apply pressure, they are staring at 3-0. With a boost of confidence heading into a rough stretch that includes games against Denver, Detroit, and Green Bay, it might not be as doom-and-gloom as you might expect.
Colton Dodgson: Joe Mixon was the RB5 with Joe Burrow out and Jake Browning under center in 2023. However, Cincinnati's offensive line needs to tighten up if there will be any Mixon-like arc for Brown.
I think Jason hit the nail on the head with his assessment of Brown's outlook. The Bengals currently rank last in yards before contact per carry with -1.31. If Brown is being contacted behind the line of scrimmage on average, volume won't matter. We're getting a glimpse of what that looks like with his fantasy production through two weeks.
Matt Montgomery: No one will gain production in the offense. Burrow's control of the offense and feel of the game is what sets him apart from other quarterbacks.
He is a good pre-snap quarterback who understands how to read defenses at a high level. That part of the game is very undervalued.
Getting the ball to the right person at the right time is what can sustain offense and lead to more point production. The efficiency of the offense will take a hit, but I believe fewer people will be involved in the game plans.
Andy Hicks: The answers depend on whether we are comparing preseason expectations to what we have seen so far this year. So far, Chase Brown has underachieved in relation to expectations. His per-carry efficiency (2.4) and paltry receiving totals indicate he has struggled to make an impact.
I expect the Bengals to take some pressure off Jake Browning by giving Brown a chance to overcome the early-season issues. As others have pointed out, the Bengals' offensive line has made it difficult for Brown to make an impact.
The concern for me isn't Jake Browning. He averages 250 yards and almost 2 touchdowns a game. Opposing defenses won't be terrified that he will tear them apart like Joe Burrow can. They should not be complacent with the weapons he has available.
Gary Davenport: It's hard to see any Bengals player gaining in value with Browning under center—in part because the player best-equipped to weather the storm of Burrow's injury is likely Chase, whose value (at least in drafts) was the No. 1 wide receiver overall.
Josh Fahlsing: My immediate thought is the same as Wood's: I don't see how anyone other than Browning gains production here. In a dynasty roundtable earlier this week, I noted Chase Brown as a player who I think will start to lose dynasty value. Conversely, I note him here as a player whose short-term value could take a small jump with Browning in the lineup.
The reason? Well, if I'm playing defense against the Bengals, I want to dedicate resources to slowing down Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. This is tougher when Burrow is pulling the trigger, but a downgrade at quarterback could make it a slightly easier task. If teams focus on shutting down the top players, Brown could see a boost as the guy defenses are willing to let profit from that strategy.
Typically, I agree with Wood that teams will focus more on the run game, but this situation is somewhat unique due to the talent of Chase and Higgins. Those guys should elevate Browning's play to a level where defenses can't just sit back and see if the backup can beat him because, with these receivers, well, he can. Teams could focus on the run, but they might also decide that Chase and Higgins can beat them, and since Brown can't, it's better to divert attention to those receivers.
Haseley has already laid out the numbers for Mixon with Browning at quarterback in 2023, so I won't repeat them here. Still, that small sample size gives me some hope that even if the passing game takes a hit with Browning under center, Brown's value could maintain or even rise a little bit.
Waldman: Who stands the most to lose?