Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to pinpoint teams in the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to arm you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations so you can start honing in on the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which shows how much each team is favored on the X-axis and the implied team total on the Y-axis. Let's go clockwise, starting in the upper-left quadrant, and highlight teams with interesting angles in Week 8.
Upper Left – Underdogs in Potential Shootouts:
These teams are underdogs but still projected to score above the slate average, making them strong candidates for potential shootouts. The higher the dotted line between teams, the higher the game total. The Cowboys are once again involved in a likely shootout. Despite facing the elite Broncos defense on the road, Dallas still carries a solid 23.5-point team total, 10th-highest on the slate. Denver remains stingy against the pass but somewhat vulnerable on the ground, setting up a strong spot for Javonte Williams.
Upper Right – Favorites with High Totals:
These teams are favored and projected to score above average, making them appealing targets for both cash games and GPPs. Positive game scripts here often favor running backs. The Colts stand out as a Week 8 outlier in the upper-right corner, with one of the league's hottest offenses meeting one of the league's weakest defenses. Jonathan Taylor should be one of the most popular plays on the slate. The Bengals, favored by 6.5 points at home after a potentially season-saving win over the Steelers, could see this game unfold perfectly for Chase Brown if the script holds.
Bottom Right – Favorites with Low Totals:
Teams in this quadrant are favored but projected to score below average. Running backs can still benefit from positive game scripts, but passing attacks carry added risk due to the limited scoring environment.
Bottom Left – Underdogs with Low Totals:
Teams here are underdogs and projected to score below average. Exposure should be limited to players you have strong conviction in, as game environments are less likely to produce tournament-winning upside.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is by comparing each team's implied total from oddsmakers to its season scoring average. The tables below show the best matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
With seven weeks of data, we can draw firmer conclusions about which defenses are weakest against each position. To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production (FanDuel scoring). For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points above expectation. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are included in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 8 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, and how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Atlanta:
The first thing that jumps out about this slate is the 41% scoring boost for the Falcons, paired with a dream matchup for Bijan Robinson. He faces a Dolphins defense allowing 5.1 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing running backs. Everything lines up for Robinson to be one of the top tournament plays at the position this week.
Cincinnati:
Deciding how heavily to target the Bengals will be one of the key decision points for Week 8. They carry a 25.5-point team total, a 31% boost over their season average, but the positional matchups aren't especially favorable. He is likely too expensive for cash games, but Tee Higgins may be the most appealing tournament option due to Sauce Gardner potentially shadowing Ja'Marr Chase.
Baltimore:
Could it really be as simple as Lamar Jackson returning and the Ravens offense instantly looking elite again? This is a strong test against an improving Bears defense that might not be quite as generous as it appears on paper. Taking a chance on Jackson in his first week back is a viable way to gain leverage in tournaments.
Denver:
The Broncos don't stand out from a team-total perspective with just a 16% scoring boost, but the positional matchups against the Cowboys are eye-catching. The strong weekly boost, great positional matchup, and hot finish to Week 7 make Bo Nix a potential go-to quarterback option in Week 8.
Worst Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 8 Main Slate expected to score fewer points than their 2025 scoring average, and how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Dallas:
This Cowboys offense has been on fire, but this is a tough spot for the passing game. Not only does the 23.5-point team total stand out as well below their recent offensive explosions, but this is also a brutal matchup through the air. The Broncos have been especially stingy against opposing wide receivers, making this a spot to temper expectations for the Dallas passing attack.
Indianapolis:
There's not a whole lot of green on this table. That's why it's the Worst Matchups Table. However, the patches of green that stand out the most belong to the Colts. When you're averaging 33.1 PPG, a -7% boost isn't much of a concern. That still equates to a strong 30.8-point team total against the reeling Titans. Tennessee has struggled against running backs all year, including a 108-yard, 3-touchdown performance from Jonathan Taylor back in Week 3. The Titans are giving up 5.8 FanDuel PPG above expectation to opposing backs, making Taylor a top target again in Week 8.
Chicago:
The sportsbooks appear to be discounting the 2025 season-to-date numbers for the Baltimore defense. With key players returning from injury and a bye week to regroup, the Ravens could look much closer to the upper-tier unit we expected before the season. That makes this an intriguing but risky spot for D'Andre Swift, who has posted back-to-back strong performances as the Bears' run game gains momentum. He draws an elite matchup by season-to-date metrics, but the -15% Week 8 scoring boost and renewed confidence in the Ravens defense suggest this could be a trap spot.
FanDuel
Let's take a look at the top options on FanDuel according to the first run of Footballguys projections. Players at each position are listed in order of their projected Points Per Dollar ("PPD").