Welcome back to DFS First Look. Whether you've been grinding DFS for years or are just giving it a shot for the first time this season, the goal is the same: find the best values, attack the right matchups, and build lineups that can win.
We'll analyze the opening lines and team totals to identify the best spots for an offensive explosion. This helps us focus on players who could provide the best return on investment. We will also highlight the players standing out in our early-week projections as the best values. Late in the week, focus on determining which of the best points per dollar (PPD) plays you trust the most. Our goal is to equip you with sharp insights and data-driven visualizations to help you identify the best plays before the week unfolds.
Slate Overview
I like starting my week with this simple visualization, which plots each team's implied total on the X-axis and how much the team is favored by on the Y-axis. The further to the right, the higher the team total; the higher up, the larger the spread in their favor. A dotted line connects each team's logo to its opponent's, giving a quick sense of both game context and matchup strength. I've always been a visual learner, and this layout helps the numbers click more than just scanning betting lines. Teams in the upper-right quadrant are favorites expected to score plenty of points, while those in the upper-left are underdogs in high-total games that could turn into shootouts. Teams in the lower-right are favorites in games expected to be very low scoring, while teams in the bottom-left are underdogs with low totals that we mostly want to avoid.
Motivation
Week 18 is arguably the most challenging slate of the entire season. On top of the usual matchup analysis and game theory considerations, motivation plays an outsized role. Many teams have little or nothing at stake, and that factor becomes increasingly important as the season winds down. With the playoffs starting next week, several of the league’s best teams will also be focused on resting key players and making sure they are as healthy as possible for the first round.
What makes things even trickier is that motivation can shift both in the days leading up to kickoff and during the games themselves.
Take the Rams as an example. If San Francisco beats Seattle on Saturday night, the Rams will be locked into the sixth seed and have absolutely nothing to play for on Sunday. If Seattle wins, however, the Rams could move up to the fifth seed. That distinction matters, as a potential road trip to Tampa Bay or Carolina would likely be much more favorable than heading to Philadelphia.
For a team like New England, motivation hinges on the scoreboard. Their game kicks off at the same time as Broncos-Chargers. If Denver loses, the Patriots can lock up the top seed and the all-important first-round bye with a win. If the Broncos are handling business as expected, New England’s incentive to push for four quarters is reduced.
There is also a large group of teams already eliminated from playoff contention. The two games with the highest totals on the slate are Giants-Cowboys and Bears-Lions, yet only one of those four teams has anything meaningful to play for, with the Bears able to lock up the No. 2 seed in the NFC with a win. Not all eliminated teams approach these spots the same way. Some will still push to finish strong, while others may go through the motions.
Staying on top of late-week coaching quotes and reading the room on how seriously these teams are taking Week 18 will be one of the biggest keys to getting this slate right.
Positional Defense and Matchups Overview
Another way to identify potential value is to compare each team's implied total from oddsmakers with its season scoring average. The tables below show the most favorable matchups, where teams are projected to score above their 2025 average, and the toughest ones, where teams are expected to fall below it.
To measure this, I look at how each defense performs relative to its opponents' typical production using FanDuel scoring. For example, if the Rams average 20 FanDuel QB points per game but San Francisco allows them to score 25, that defense would be +5 points allowed above expectation that week. By averaging those weekly differentials, we can see how much more or less each defense allows compared to its opponents' norms. Those positional defense metrics are reflected in the tables below.
Best Matchups
Here are the teams on the Week 18 Main Slate expected to score more points than their 2025 scoring average, along with how many points above expectation their opponent's defense allows to each position.
Jacksonville
The Jaguars are one of the teams we can confidently count on to be motivated, as they need a win to clinch the division over Houston. Tennessee’s defense has improved significantly against the run over the back half of the season, but it has started to slip against the pass. The Titans allowed more than 333 passing yards and two touchdowns to Tyler Shough last week, and earlier this month, they gave up 364 yards and four total touchdowns to Shedeur Sanders. This sets up as a spot where Trevor Lawrence could keep his recent hot stretch going.
Atlanta
Neither the Falcons nor the Saints has anything at stake in the standings, but this game still carries real motivation on both sides. For Atlanta, trading away its 2026 first-round pick now looks like a potential misstep. The team believed it was positioned for a playoff run and fell short, so pushing that pick as late as possible would help soften the blow. Head coach Raheem Morris may also be coaching for his job over the final stretch. The Falcons have played well in recent weeks, and ending the season with a win over a division rival would be meaningful for both the locker room and the organization.
New Orleans
Few franchises have done more over the past month to give their fans optimism about the future than the Saints. Tyler Shough has not only earned the starting job heading into 2026, but has also given New Orleans plenty to be excited about long-term. This is a strong matchup for the passing game, led by Shough and Chris Olave, to stay hot, and it has sneaky shootout potential, similar to last week’s Saints-Titans game.
NY Giants
Neither the Giants nor the Cowboys has anything tangible to play for, and New York would likely benefit from a loss in terms of draft position. Still, this feels like a rivalry spot where both teams could come out trying to finish strong. Their first meeting was a 40–37 shootout, and the Giants are coming off a blowout win over the Raiders. Jaxson Dart added two more rushing touchdowns in that game and has a great chance to close out his rookie season on a high note against a Dallas defense allowing a massive 7.0 points per game above expectation to opposing quarterbacks. Wan’Wan'Dale Robinson also draws a dream matchup, which earned him the cover of this week’s article.
