DraftKings Thursday Showdown: Week 3

Our John Lee with DraftKings Thursday Showdown Analysis: Dolphins vs. Bills

John Lee's DraftKings Thursday Showdown: Week 3 John Lee Published 09/17/2025

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NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. Success in these contests doesn’t come from blindly following median projections, but from creating leverage and building unique rosters. Fading the most popular plays can be risky, yet the biggest edges usually come from identifying the right low-rostered pivots and pairing them creatively with the slate’s juggernauts.

With both DraftKings and FanDuel now using similar formats — a multiplier slot (Captain/MVP) that costs 1.5× salary and earns 1.5× points — the nuances between sites come down to scoring systems and contest dynamics. DraftKings’ full PPR scoring and larger prize pools reward a slightly different decision-making process than FanDuel’s half-PPR and softer fields, but the core principles of Showdown roster construction apply across both.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash builds, median projections remain your best guide. For head-to-head contests, lean into projections as well, but when two players project similarly, side with the lower-rostered option.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Thursday Night Football brings two teams headed in opposite directions. The Bills are 2–0 after wins over the Ravens and Jets; the Dolphins are winless after losses to the Colts and Patriots. Vegas projects an easy home win for Buffalo, 31–19. It’s hard to draw up a script where the Bills don’t control this game wire to wire.

Miami’s best counter is to slow things down and play keep-away, as much as the game script allows. Buffalo surrendered 250+ rushing yards to Baltimore in Week 1, with Derrick Henry doing most of the damage. With the Bills still missing pieces up front, expect Mike McDaniel to lean on De’Von Achane early to exploit those injuries and keep Josh Allen on the sideline. Defensively, Miami has sprung leaks—64 points allowed and a league-worst 72.5% completion rate—despite facing Daniel Jones and Drake Maye.. Against that backdrop, Buffalo can win via run or pass: James Cook looked terrific in Week 2, and any pass-centric plan still runs through Josh Allen first, with Keon Coleman emerging as a complementary piece in his sophomore campaign.

Given the blowout potential, Showdown builds should lean Bills. A 4–2 or 5–1 Buffalo tilt makes sense if you think they meet Vegas expectations. The rub: jamming Josh Allen and James Cook into the same lineup eats close to half the cap; with one of them at Captain, you’re left with roughly $5K per slot to finish the roster. That makes extreme value crucial. Two names who can unlock the slate: Tanner Conner and Malik Washington—both profile as usage-ahead-of-salary options whose roles haven’t fully caught up in pricing, but whose upside fits this script.

Injury Roundup

The Dolphins enter Thursday with two defensive backs on the injury report. Cornerback Storm Duck (ankle) and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu (calf) could leave Miami thin in the secondary against Josh Allen and his receivers. That’s a troubling setup for a unit that just allowed Drake Maye to complete 82% of his passes last week and made Daniel Jones look sharp on opening weekend. Missing a pair of starters certainly won’t help as they try to course-correct against the league’s second-highest scoring offense. On offense, the Dolphins will also be without Darren Waller, who is battling a prolonged hip issue that has kept him off this field in 2025.

In Buffalo, it’s a mixed bag. Cornerbacks Taron Johnson and Cam Lewis—both absent for most of the first two games—returned to practice but are listed as questionable. Monitor Thursday’s final report; a late scratch for either would give Miami’s passing game a lift, especially over the middle. Up front, the news is worse: Ed Oliver (ankle) and Matt Milano (pectoral) have been ruled out. Losing Milano—a former All-Pro and one of the league’s best coverage linebackers—widens the lanes for underneath work, boosting De’Von Achane and TE/slot options like Tanner Conner.

Captain Considerations

  1. Josh Allen
  2. De'Von Achane
  3. James Cook
  4. Tyreek Hill
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