NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. Success in these contests doesn't come from blindly following median projections, but from creating leverage and building unique rosters. Fading the most popular plays can be risky, yet the biggest edges usually come from identifying the right low-rostered pivots and pairing them creatively with the slate's juggernauts.
With both DraftKings and FanDuel now using similar formats — a multiplier slot (Captain/MVP) that costs 1.5× salary and earns 1.5× points — the nuances between sites come down to scoring systems and contest dynamics. DraftKings' full PPR scoring and larger prize pools reward a slightly different decision-making process than FanDuel's half-PPR and softer fields, but the core principles of Showdown roster construction apply across both.
The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash builds, median projections remain your best guide. For head-to-head contests, consider projections as well, but when two players have similar projections, side with the lower-rostered option.
Game Scripting and Roster Construction
Our first Thursday night game in November reads like an on-paper blowout, which narrows the viable strategies for DFS Showdown. The Las Vegas Raiders, fresh off an overtime gut punch at home to Jacksonville, take a short flight to the Mile High City to face the 7–2 Broncos, undefeated at home and winners of six straight. If things weren't bleak enough for the Raiders, they traded their WR1 Jakobi Meyers on Tuesday, raising real questions about pass catchers not named Brock Bowers for a struggling 2–6 squad. Oddsmakers echo the view, installing Denver as heavy favorites and implying roughly 26–16 for the home side.
Over the past few weeks, this section has sketched Thursday's outcomes accurately enough to drive effective Showdown builds. So how does this one map out? I'm leaning heavily toward Denver, expecting Las Vegas to lay an egg on a short week after trading away a top weapon. I expect the Broncos to control all phases. With that in mind, I'm recommending 5–1 builds—or, at worst, 4–2—in Denver's favor. If you're rostering three (or more) Raiders, you're betting on a competitive script; I'm expecting this one to be over by halftime.
If we accept the blowout premise, can we still gain leverage? Three angles stand out: 1) Captain selection matters because Denver spreads the ball, 2) your single Raider (or two) can swing the cash line, and 3) there are potential low-owned "diamonds" who can reach double-digit points and vault lineups. The short answer to the prevailing question is "yes"--keep reading for where I'm focusing tournament exposure on Thursday night.
Injury Roundup
If the Raiders have anything working in their favor on Thursday night, it's the injury report. They're expected to be without only Aidan O'Connell, who wouldn't see the field barring an injury ahead of him. From a DFS standpoint, nothing here moves the needle.
Denver, by contrast, has two meaningful absences that push backups into larger roles. Both Marvin Mims Jr. (concussion) and Patrick Surtain II (pectoral) are set to miss the game. Mims also sat last Sunday, which pushed extra snaps to Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant. Surtain's absence is notable, but given the Raiders' limited outside receiver threats, it's less damaging than it would be against a perimeter-heavy offense. The Broncos will also be without Nate Adkins, which shouldn't affect Showdown formats with Evan Engram and Adam Trautman firmly ahead of him.
Captain Considerations
Raiders Showdown Players
Quarterback
Geno Smith (FADE/PASS)
Thursday night will mark Geno Smith's toughest defensive matchup of his Raiders debut season. To date, he's been sporadic, with dreadful outings against solid defenses in Kansas City (2.8 fantasy points) and Indianapolis (7.9 fantasy points), both of whom are less potent than what he'll see Thursday night. With those guideposts, it's hard to see Smith doing much against the league's best defense on its home field, on a short week, after losing his top receiver. This is a firm pass—spend your salary elsewhere. DFS Takeaway: Fade Geno Smith and reallocate to Broncos-heavy builds or cheaper Raiders pass pieces that better fit a negative script.