As I watch games from Thursday through Monday Night Football, I note the things that catch my eye. From injuries to unexpected box score production, good and bad, to scheme quirks and situations that could affect a player's production in the coming weeks. I compile these notes, along with the subsequent news and investigation, into the Eyes of the Guru column.
On Monday mornings, I will be sharing those raw notes. There will be no in-depth analysis or description. Those things take time and will come later in the week. The goal is to give our customers an early heads up on things that could impact their important decisions for the week, so if something in the notes is particularly important to your team, you can look into it on your own and/or wait until the EOTG comes out that week to get my take.
And we're off! It's great to finally have some real football to look at. As always, I'll start the week two article with a warning. Do not overreact to week one because it will lie to us! You can single out any given week of the season and find plenty of anomalies. After the first few games, we can identify them as anomalies, but with everyone hyped up to start the new season, it is easy to make huge mistakes.
The rule to live by here is not to decide on a player without figuring out why he over- or underperformed. You don't cut a player because the game script went sideways and his opportunities were limited, and you don't keep a guy when his role is far smaller than anticipated. Keep in mind that Ja'Marr Chase, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Mike Evans, and Brian Thomas Jr. all stunk it up in week one, but no one is cutting them.
Guru's IDP Notes: Arizona Cardinals
Cardinals have joined the trend of teams using a big nickel as their base defense. Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson were on the field for every defensive snap, while Dadrion Taylor-Demerson saw 67% of the action as the third safety. This is bad news for those of us who drafted Akeem Davis-Gaither. His 3-4 with a pass breakup was so-so at a glance and fairly solid when considering that he was on the field for just 28 snaps.
The only reason I am hesitant to move on from Davis-Gaither right away is that Mack Wilson Sr. was far from impressive. Wilson went 4-4 with a pass breakup on 75 plays. For me, the decision comes down to who is available on the waiver wire.
It was a different team but the same scenario for Josh Sweat, who was limited to a 63% share of the snaps as part of a five-player rotation. Baron Browning was second at 53%. If someone on the wire stands out, consider Sweat expendable.
Guru's IDP Notes: Atlanta Falcons
One of the oddities from week one is that the NFL game book tells us that Jordan Fuller made the start at safety. That was his only defensive snap of the game. Xavier Watts (6-0 with 2 pass breakups) and Jessie Bates III (2-4) played every snap, with Billy Bowman Jr. going 3-3-.5 on 81% of the action in the slot.
The curse of the Falcons' pass rush continues. Bowman and linebacker Divine Deablo shared the team's only sack. If that is not enough to sour us on Atlanta linemen, consider this: nine players saw action, with none logging more than a 62% playshare (36 snaps).
Kaden Ellis was a disappointing 3-2. Put him in the category with those receivers I mentioned in the open. Both he and Divine Diablo played full-time. This is an interesting development for Diablo. His 1-5-.5 with a pass breakup were modest numbers, but he was on the field. A matchup with the Vikings should help both linebackers to better production this week.
Guru's IDP Notes: Baltimore Ravens
Kyle Hamilton left the game in the third quarter to have his hand looked at. Returned to finish 6-3 with a forced fumble and 2 passes defended. The injury should not be an issue, but keep an eye on him this week just in case. These things tend to get very sore a day or two later.
Nnamdi Madubuike had a great 2023. He slipped close to relative mediocrity last year, but is off to a fast start in 2025. At 4-2-1, he not only had the team's only sack, but also finished as the fantasy games' DT5 for the week. This could be the start of his second double-digit sack season.
Trenton Simpson and Teddye Buchanan combined to play 65% of the snaps as Baltimore's second linebacker. This is very telling for both players. It tells us that Simpson is not the guy, and his stock is a virtual flatline. It also tells us that Buchanan could be heading up.
Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey were the Ravens' full-time corners. Chidobe Awuzie was number three with 79% of the snaps. Jaire Alexander was limited to a 39% share of the action, seeing much of that time in dime packages.
Guru's IDP Notes: Buffalo Bills
Ed Oliver has been inconsistent from year to year, but he was a top 10 tackle in 2023. turned in some good seasons along the way. He is off to a fast start with the 6-0-1 and a forced fumble, making him the top DT for week one. With his history and a 69% snap share, he is worthy of strong consideration in tackle-required leagues.
The target number for edge defenders is 75% of the snaps. Joey Bosa and Greg Rousseau fell a little short of that at 69% versus Baltimore.
Guru's IDP Notes: Carolina Panthers
Lathan Ransom did not start in the opener, seeing action on nine snaps. While this is a disappointing development, I'm not going to be in a hurry to let him go, especially in dynasty leagues. Nick Scott made the start and did nothing to make the coaching staff forget about how good Ransom looked in the preseason. If you can afford the roster spot, give him a week or two and see if his chance comes.
Christian Rozeboom played every snap at linebacker, while Trevin Wallace logged a solid 86% with a respectable five solo stops.
Guru's IDP Notes: Chicago Bears
T.J. Edwards remains sidelined with a sore hamstring. Noah Sewell made the start on Monday night and made a solid showing. Sewell led the team with seven tackles and two assists and did a fine job on the field as well. The team is not saying how long it will be before Edwards returns. With Sewell playing well, there is no need to rush.
Dayo Odeyingbo got off to a good start with a sack in his first game with the team. At 1-1-1 with a pass breakup, there is nothing to get excited about yet, but he is a player to keep a close eye on.
Guru's IDP Notes: Cincinnati Bengals
Demetrius Knight Jr. came out of the gate on fire, putting up five solos and two assists on the first series. He went on to finish 8-2 with a pass breakup for the game, but there is cause for concern just the same. Knight was on the field for only 76% of the snaps.
Logan Wilson posted a modest 4-3 with a pair of pass breakups. Those are not bad numbers considering he missed much of the third quarter while being checked for a concussion. What is noteworthy here is that Barrett Carter managed 3-1 on fourteen snaps in relief and looked strong doing it. This is a player who can be an NFL starter when the opportunity presents itself. Tuck that in your memory for a later time.
Safety Jordan Battle is a player I've been calling up all summer. He did not disappoint, going 5-7 with an interception.
Guru's IDP Notes: Cleveland Browns
As expected, Carson Schwesinger was the Browns' full-time linebacker, playing every defensive snap. It was a bit surprising that Devin Bush was the number two, seeing 75% of the action. Neither player was impressive on the stat sheet, but Cleveland has a brutal schedule, so the numbers should come.
If anyone is keeping track, Jerome Baker started and was 1-0 on fourteen snaps while Mohamoud Diabate went 2-1 on nine.
Myles Garrett loves playing Joe Burrow. With his 5-0-2, he now has eleven career sacks of Burrow. While that is an interesting note, the important news is that Isaiah McGuire made all the noise at the other edge position, going 4-2-1 on 29 plays. He split time with Alex Wright, who did virtually nothing (0-1) on his 21 chances. This is nothing to get excited about unless McGuire starts claiming more of the playing time going forward. For now, it's a situation to monitor.
Guru's IDP Notes: Dallas Cowboys
With Micah Parsons gone, the Cowboys relied on a pass rush by committee. Sam Williams and Donte Fowler were the official starters, seeing 62% and 43% of the playing time, respectively. Marshawn Kneeland logged 48% and landed the group's only sack, and Donovan Ezeiruaku picked up 35% of the snaps. Until/unless someone separates themselves from the pack, fantasy production from these guys will be hit or miss at best. That said, Williams and Kneeland looked like the guys to watch.
All the expectations were that Jack Sanborn would step up in his role as the Cowboys' middle linebacker. He was strong against the run, but his lack of coverage was exposed. Sanborn's role was limited to 76% of the snaps, while Kenneth Murray Jr. was the every-down backer, and Damone Clark finished with 67% of the snaps. While none of them gave us much on the stat sheet in this one, I expect that Sanborn (2-4) will give us some solid games along the way. He's just not going to live up to the expectations that some managers had.
Guru's IDP Notes: Denver Broncos
At 1-0-1, Zach Allen saved his day with a late sack. There is no reason to be overly concerned here. He played 81% of the snaps and will be just fine.
Four of the team's six sacks were by linemen. Nik Bonitto was 3-0-1, Jonathon Cooper 2-0-1, and Jonah Elliss 3-0-1. Their snap counts were somewhat low in this game, largely because Denver dominated, resulting in the Titans running a limited number of plays. On the positive side, this trio worked in a three-man rotation, so Ellis might have enough opportunities to be a factor. Put this one on the watch list.
Just a couple of weeks ago, it looked like Dre Greenlaw would be available for week one. He did not go against Tennessee, but the fact that he has not been placed on the PUP or IR bodes well for his chances of playing soon. On the other hand, Greenlaw has been a notoriously slow healer and has missed a lot of time with injuries over his career. Justin Strnad got the start in week one, going 3-2-1 on 67% of the snaps.
Talanoa Hufanga is one of the hottest IDPs on this week's wire, and with good reason. He was all over the field and impressed with a big 7-3 and a forced fumble on the stat sheet. It was just one week, but he looked good.
Ja'Quan McMillian (54%) and Jahdae Barron (37%) split time in the slot. Just enough to ruin them both for IDP purposes.
Guru's IDP Notes: Detroit Lions
The Lions fielded three linebackers on 90% of plays against Green Bay. Alex Anzalone put up a disappointing 2-2, and Jack Campbell a respectable 5-4 while both played every snap. Derrick Barnes was 4-2 on 90%. Detroit played three linebackers often last year as well, so for those in deep drafted leagues, Barnes might be roster worthy.
Marcus Davenport finished at 2-1. What is most important is that he made it through a game without injury. The rest of the story is that his 2-1 was three stops more than Aidan Hutchinson produced. The Packers' offensive line dominated the line of scrimmage in this game, while Hutchinson appeared rusty, despite playing nearly every defensive snap. It is too early to panic on Hutchinson, but he certainly has my attention. His goose egg calls into question whether he is fully healthy after last year's injury.
Guru's IDP Notes: Green Bay Packers
Edgerrin Cooper (8-4) and Quay Walker (6-3 PD) were on the field for every defensive snap. The Lions were not able to get their offense going, yet both linebackers put up good numbers. This removes any doubt about there being enough plays to support two highly productive backers.
Going into the season, the expectation was that Evan Williams would be the strong safety with Javon Bullard working mostly in the slot. That is not exactly what we saw in week one. What I saw was a pair of interchangeable pieces that were not locked into specific roles. Both players saw snaps at safety, both lined up in the box at times, and both covered the slot. Bullard won the production battle, going 7-2 on 88% of the snaps. Evans salvaged his less productive 1-2 day with an interception, while logging 84%. My fear here is that this situation could lead to inconsistency for both players. There is enough production to support two quality linebackers, but not enough for both backers and all three safeties, including Xavier McKinney.
Adding to the concern, there was extra playing time available in the secondary because Nate Hobbs was inactive. That moved Keisean Nixon to an outside corner opposite Carrington Valentine. Nixon excelled in the slot last year. Something has to give when Hobbs is healthy.
Micah Parsons got to the QB in his first game as a Packer, but did nothing else, going 1-0-1 on 30 plays.
Guru's IDP Notes: Houston Texans
There were no standout IDP performances in the Texans' 14-9 loss to the Rams, but there are some interesting notes. As expected, Houston ran a big nickel as their base defense, fielding three safeties on 92% of the snaps. The trio of C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Jalen Pitre, and Calen Bullock combined for nine tackles and three assists.
The most impactful news is at linebacker, where Azeez Al-Shaair salvaged his marginal three tackles and four assists with a forced fumble, and Henry To'oTo'o was 2-4-1 with a pass breakup on a 95% play share. Houston was a big nickel base last year as well. The difference is that the second linebacker rarely saw that level of playing time in the past. To'oTo'o was largely a two-down guy until Al-Shaair was injured, and most expected he would return to that role this year. One game is not proof that he will continue to have the bigger role, but we know that if he gets on the field enough, To'oTo'o will be a fantasy factor.
For the record, Christian Harris played five snaps on defense and E.J. Speed played three. Barring an injury, it doesn't look like those guys will do anything this year.
If you need a corner, consider Kamari Lassiter. He led the team with nine combined stops in the opener and put up good numbers in most of his games as a rookie last year. Working opposite Derek Stingley Jr., who is borderline elite, will keep opponents throwing Lassiter's way often.
Guru's IDP Notes: Indianapolis Colts
Miami had no offense, so it was a slow day for Colts linebackers. It didn't help when most starters were pulled early in the fourth quarter. Look for a big bounce-back from Zaire Franklin when the Broncos come to town this week.
Many managers were scrambling to add Joe Bachie, who was named the starting weak-side backer ahead of week one. Anyone who grabbed him in the hope of E.J. Speed-like production was disappointed. Bachie totaled 1-5. If he had played in a full-time role, we could write off the lackluster production to the matchup. Unfortunately, there was more to it. Bachie and Cameron McGrone each played 46% of the snaps. Granted, Bachie was seeing more than half of the playing time before starters were pulled, but he was far from an every-down guy. Unless you need the roster spot for a better prospect, it might be worth holding onto him for one more game to see how he performs against a better matchup, but I'm pessimistic at this stage.
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