Top 5 Passing Matchups
Pittsburgh at New England
Aaron Rodgers has been efficient, if unspectacular, through his first two starts with Pittsburgh. The 41-year-old is no longer pushing the ball vertically, ranking 33rd of 34 qualifiers in average depth of throw at just 5.1 yards. That puts him just ahead of Bo Nix and highlights his reluctance to test defenses deep. Age and protection both factor in, as the Steelers' offensive line remains a work in progress. Even so, Rodgers has been trusted with meaningful volume. He dazzled in the opener against the Jets, throwing for 244 yards and four touchdowns, and started hot against Seattle before fading late. This week, he gets a favorable draw against a Patriots defense that has been picked apart through two games. The matchup sets up especially well for DK Metcalf, who has yet to deliver a true breakout but owns clear alpha usage. He's drawn half of Pittsburgh's wide receiver targets and 22% of the overall looks, signaling Rodgers is locked on him when possible. Calvin Austin III and the tight ends serve more as situational chess pieces, leaving Metcalf as the most logical candidate to take advantage of a leaky New England secondary. With the Patriots struggling to generate pressure, Rodgers should find more comfort in the pocket and more opportunities to let Metcalf work downfield.
New England's defensive issues were magnified in Week 2 against Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. Through two weeks, opposing quarterbacks have completed 76% of their throws at a gaudy 10.3 yards per attempt. The Dolphins repeatedly schemed receivers into open space, aided by poor communication and blown coverages across the secondary. Tackling was a glaring weakness, as shown on De'Von Achane's 29-yard catch-and-run score. New coach Mike Vrabel inherits a defense that looks disorganized and is missing its most talented cover man. Christian Gonzalez has not practiced since training camp due to a hamstring injury, and his absence has left a glaring hole at the top of the cornerback rotation. Carlton Davis III remains a solid option, but he isn't the shutdown presence Gonzalez can be, while Alex Austin was repeatedly targeted and beaten through the first two games. The Patriots' safety shakeup has also yet to provide stability, with Kyle Dugger potentially rotating back into the lineup. Against Rodgers, who thrives on precision and exploiting soft zones, the Patriots appear vulnerable to steady chain-moving drives and a potential Metcalf eruption.
Minnesota vs Cincinnati
It's hard to overstate what kind of week J.J. McCarthy just endured. The rookie made his first NFL start on Monday night, became a father midweek, then was back under center by Sunday evening. Expecting him to deliver another high-level showing immediately was always ambitious, and the team will now shut him down for about a month. In his place, Carson Wentz steps into an offense with the league's most bankable wideout and a soft landing spot against one of the NFL's most vulnerable secondaries. Justin Jefferson is already in midseason form, commanding a massive 32% target share from McCarthy through two weeks. The volume wasn't there against Atlanta, when the Vikings threw sparingly, but Jefferson's role is as secure as any in football. The same can be said for T.J. Hockenson, who has only four catches but remains a featured option in the scheme. Even reserve receiver Jalen Nailor has stepped into Jordan Addison's place and earned steady looks, another sign the offense intends to keep spreading the ball under Wentz. With a veteran quarterback at the helm, those weapons should stay plenty involved against a beatable Cincinnati unit.
After two weeks, the Bengals' pass defense appears to be worse than it was in 2024, when it allowed 236 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game. That was a step forward from prior seasons, but the early 2025 returns are discouraging: 281 yards and two touchdowns per game, despite not yet facing a true downfield-oriented attack. The lack of roster upgrades over the offseason is glaring. The secondary still misses Jessie Bates III, who provided stability over shaky cover men. Cam Taylor-Britt remains the name of note, but his play has trended downward since a strong 2023, and DJ Turner II has been no better. The pass rush is equally concerning. Trey Hendrickson accounts for an overwhelming 70% of the team's pressures and 67% of its quarterback hits. With little help around him and a new coordinator in Al Golden reluctant to blitz, opposing quarterbacks have found comfortable pockets to work from. That's an especially dangerous formula against Wentz, who can still pick apart a bland defensive look when his protection holds.