Week 18 Saturday DFS Overview
Key Injuries:
Injuries are minimal in these two important pseudo-playoff games. Teams should be playing at or near full strength, with anyone who is able to play finding a way to suit up.
- Cornerback Jamel Dean is out for Tampa Bay this week. This could open up some additional opportunities for the Carolina passing attack, as they already lost Zyon McCollum to IR in Week 16. Dean is a bigger safety at 6’1’’ 210 pounds, so losing his size will be critical for an already struggling Buccaneers pass defense.
- Carolina will be without Claudin Cherilus, which is a huge loss at linebacker, similar to the Jamel Dean loss for Tampa Bay. Cherilus will miss with a concussion, but the team already lost its other starting linebacker, Trevin Wallace, in Week 16 as he was placed on IR. This is a run defense that is sputtering to the end of the season, and is showing signs of being as bad as the 2024 Panthers, so look for a potential big day for the Tampa Bay rushing attack.
How to Approach a Two-Game Slate- Strategy
Two-game slates are always extremely difficult, as you need to be nearly perfect in a GPP. Far too often, people worry so much about winning a GPP, rather than just putting together a very strong lineup and hoping for the best. It really depends on the type of player that you are. If you’re a player who is going to build 150 lineups to enter a contest, then you need to think about the expected value of being contrarian and building lineups that are not overlapped.
I used to be that player, but I find myself having so much more fun trying to meticulously build a few lineups each week, mostly because I know that it is how a majority of our subscribers and readers actually play the game. If you’re that player, you should focus more on game scripts and how they are likely going to play out, rather than what the field is going to be doing and how to react to ensure that you’re being unique in your lineup builds. Trust me when I say that if you’re only building a couple of lineups, you’re likely going to be ok if you share first place with a few other people if your lineup is good enough.
Stacking is going to be critical in this game. Finding the game script does not just always mean total points in a given game, but instead, really thinking about how they come about. There’s not a singular right answer when it comes to building the lineups this week. We’ll talk about individual players who are in great spots and are undervalued, but variance is a huge part of the game.
These hypotheticals are to be used as an example. Note, these are not what we expect or even recommend, but more so, how to think about building a lineup on a two game slate.
- Tampa Bay gets out to an early 21-0 lead in the first half, and Carolina is forced to play catch-up the entire game:
If you believe this is the case, there are a few follow-up questions that you have to ask yourself. First is how they got to 21-0? If the answer is Baker Mayfield came out and dominated with the receivers of Tampa Bay, then that is where most people’s heads will go towards, as that is the easiest stack to comprehend. You simply take Mayfield, some of his receivers, and then take a Panthers receiver because they’ll be forced to throw the ball the entire game to catch up.
However, what about the scenario where it may have been a defensive score, or multiple rushing touchdowns? In these scenarios, you’d likely want to take Bryce Young, along with a player like Bucky Irving, and possibly even the Tampa Bay defense. It’s not as negatively correlated to take an opposing defense with your starting quarterback, even though it is not intuitive. Points allowed are really minimal when it comes to team defense; it’s really about sacks and the opportunity to score a touchdown, so the more pass attempts faced, the more opportunities for those things.
- Tampa Bay vs Carolina is a 13-10 game.
If you believe this is the case, then the common reaction is that you will just want to completely load up on the other game on this slate, as there certainly will be more points than a 13-10 type performance. While this is absolutely true, what can’t be ignored is that there is still going to be fantasy production in this game as well.
People have a tendency to go too stack-heavy, where they will play the maximum number of players on a single game, and just hope the other game is a complete dud. It’s very rare for a scenario where, on a two-game slate, it is all but one player in a lineup that is from the same game as the winning lineup. It’s almost always a mix unless one game scores in the 60’s while the other scores in the 20’s or 30’s. Even in this 13-10 scenario, ask yourself, is it possible for both running backs to have a big day? Could a receiver on both sides have 80 yards and a touchdown? Don’t just take a defense and stack the Seattle/San Francisco game if this is the scenario that you believe, as that is a strategy that a lot of people will use because it is simple, but not necessarily a winning strategy.
Player Thoughts:
Quarterback:
Value Rankings:
At the quarterback position, the difference between Brock Purdy on the high-end and Bryce Young on the low-end really is not all that different in terms of expectations. Given the issues that Tampa Bay has in its secondary, you should strongly consider Young this week. There’s no question that he has been struggling since his 448-yard, 3-touchdown outbreak in Week 10. Last week, he particularly struggled as he threw for just 54 yards in a 27-10 loss to Seattle.
However, what we have seen with Young is some more mobility in recent weeks. He’s run for at least 20 yards in each of his last four games, including a touchdown last week, which was just his second of the season. In a must-win game, with Tampa Bay, it’s certainly possible to see his best rushing performance of the season. The downside is low with Young, but I tend not to worry about a quarterback’s downside when it comes to GPP’s, as if they don’t have a great game at quarterback, you likely aren’t winning anyway.
With certain elite players on this slate that you’re going to want in your lineup, taking the savings on Young is certainly a path that you could take this week.
Running Back:
Value Rankings:
When evaluating the running back position, you have to make a clear decision on Christian McCaffrey. He’s far away in a class of his own when it comes to this slate, as the only other running back who has a chance to out-touch him is likely Bucky Irving, as the Panthers and Seahawks are both in committees that we want to try to avoid if possible.
However, if you do take McCaffrey, you have a few dilemmas. First, Bucky Irving is in an ideal matchup. We just saw Carolina allow 110 yards and two touchdowns to Zach Charbonnet last week, and in their Week 16 matchup, Irving had 19 carries for 71 yards against this Panthers team, which, while not great, was still when Claudin Cherilus, who will not play in this game, was on the field.
The bigger dilemma with McCaffrey is that if you take both him and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, you’re going to be digging pretty deep in terms of who to find that has enough upside at the wide receiver and tight end position, as everyone is going to be using the exact same players. In this case, however, personally, I would rather go with McCaffrey over Smith-Njigba if I had to choose just one. The reason is that there is going to be more volatility at the wide receiver position compared to the running back position.
So, if we are playing McCaffrey, picking the number two running back is critical. If you’re fading Jaxon Smith-Njigba, you could get creative and go with either Bucky Irving or Rico Dowdle, who are strong plays, but for most people, this is going to come down to a decision between Ken Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. It’s recency bias, as Charbonnet is coming off a career game last week with 110 yards and two touchdowns, but he has more variance than Walker, who is averaging just 11.8 carries over his last five games. Charbonnet has more red zone opportunities this season, and if one player is going to have a multi-touchdown game, it is likely going to be Charbonnet.
Wide Receiver
Value Rankings:
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Tetairoa McMillan
- Jalen McMillan
- Cooper Kupp
- Mike Evans
- Jauan Jennings
- Jalen Coker
- Ricky Pearsall
Let’s get it out of the way immediately. I’m going out on a limb and stating that you should avoid two players on this slate. Chris Godwin Jr. and Emeka Egbuka. The reason is relatively simple: they’re going to get name recognition on a two-game slate that their production has no reason to tell you to play them. Egbuka hasn’t scored in seven games and has topped 50 yards just once in his last seven outings. Meanwhile, Godwin is going to be over-rostered because of his 108-yard and a touchdown performance against Miami last week. Before that, he had five of his eight games this season with 30 or fewer yards.
Speaking of breakout performances against Miami, Jalen McMillan is a much more intriguing player if you want to target Tampa Bay. At $4,200 on DraftKings, it’s a very low price. Since returning from injury, McMillan has played three games and has been on the field for 50% of snaps, which, averaging 15.2 yards per catch, could lead to a high-variance play, but at $4,200, the significant savings with McMillan allow you to spend up elsewhere.
Cooper Kupp is intriguing at $3,600 on DraftKings. The price is just so low, and while he has not had the season that most had hoped, he’s still clearly the number two option in this offense. With Rashid Shaheed back, that should help Kupp underneath as the defenses have to play higher safeties with Shaheed’s big play potential. If Kupp can get 3-4 receptions at $3,600, that’s likely enough to provide some cost savings to spend up elsewhere.
For Carolina, both Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker are interesting due to the fact that Tampa Bay is without its top two cornerbacks. This has already historically been a team that you’re going to want to try to throw the ball against, and with Carolina having few options to consistently go to, the stacking options here are intriguing. You could target Xavier Legette as well, although the volume and upside just have not been there for him as he’s more clearly the third option for this team.
However, the big question of the week is Jaxson Smith-Njigba. At his price on both DraftKings and FanDuel, the question is whether you can realistically afford him, while at the same time, whether you can afford not to have him if he has a big game. Simply put, if he has a ceiling performance, there’s likely no coming back from that if you choose not play him. The first time these two teams played, it was Week 1, so it’s hard to compare to now, but Smith-Njigba had 124 yards on nine receptions. He’s topped 100 yards in 9 of his 16 games this season and has failed to top 70 yards just once. If you’re building multiple lineups, certainly get exposure to him, but if you do choose to fade him, the amount of doors that open up for creative things and stacks just becomes significantly more available rather than having to fit into a template with both McCaffrey and Smith-Njigba.
Tight End
Value Rankings:
There really are only two options at the tight end position this week, and you could make a case that you could play both. In terms of upside, it’s clearly George Kittle having a massive separation over the other tight ends on this slate, but A.J. Barner has been quietly consistent this season. Coming off of back-to-back 40+ yard and a touchdown performances, Barner is a solid option, especially if you’re running a Seattle passing stack or if you’re fading Jaxon Smith-Njigba, as if Barner scores a touchdown, that’s a touchdown JSN would not have scored.
On FanDuel, it is going to be much easier to play two tight ends than on DraftKings, simply because on DraftKings, George Kittle is a staggering $6,000, so using him as a flex is a little bit more challenging. However, he may be worth it. There’s no denying just how great Kittle has been, and it may, in fact, be worth it to say he’s a better play than all of those aforementioned players. He’s had at least 65 yards in each of his last six games, while scoring four touchdowns in those six contests.