Top 5 Passing Matchups
Philadelphia at Dallas
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles keep winning without truly figuring out how to get consistency from their passing attack. Hurts managed just 318 yards in ugly wins over the Lions and Packers, while A.J. Brown continued to complain about his role. Still, in most neutral situations, this remains a hyper-efficient attack – just one without the flash we're used to. Hurts sits top-10 by most metrics, and he proved against the Vikings (326 yards, 3 touchdowns) and Giants (179 and 4) that he can produce while holding a hefty lead. Brown and DeVonta Smith remain the backbone, drawing 51% of team targets, and this could be the first week in a while that they erupt simultaneously. The Cowboys struggle mightily with strong route-runners coming off the boundary. The Eagles suffered a significant injury with the loss of Lane Johnson at right tackle last week. He's expected to miss 4-6 weeks, forcing Fred Johnson to step in and replace him. Fred Johnson is a league-average backup, so while it won't create a liability for the Eagles, it certainly will not be as dominant as with Lane Johnson.
The Dallas pass defense seems to have stabilized after a putrid start to the season. That's certainly possible, but perhaps they've just deflated those numbers over two months against some of the league's worst offenses. Their last six games have included dates with the likes of Geno Smith, Jacoby Brissett, Bo Nix, Bryce Young, and Justin Fields. All other passers have averaged 291 yards at a stunning 8.7 per throw. When you factor in the pass rush and their touchdown/interception marks, you get the worst adjusted net yardage rate in recent history. This week, they'll take on an Eagles attack that isn't throwing much at the moment, but drips efficiency when it does. In this matchup last season, Philadelphia quarterbacks combined for a 129.5 rating. Now without Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, and others, the cracks in this unit have become fractures. Trevon Diggs is missing from the secondary, and while he's slipped in recent years, he's sorely missed in such a thin group. DaRon Bland is miscast as a top cornerback, and Kaiir Elam seems to have already flamed out as a reclamation project. They've long relied on playmaking help from safety Donovan Wilson, who's struggling through his worst year as a pro.
New England at Cincinnati
Drake Maye and the Patriots continue to make the passing game look easy, even without superstar talent at wideout. Maye leads the NFL with a 71.9% completion rate and 9.41 adjusted yards per throw, which factors in touchdowns and interceptions as well. He's consistent, too, with 250+ yards in five of his last six games. Maye has established himself quickly as an MVP frontrunner based on the success that he has shown this season. Stefon Diggs is realistically a number two wide receiver at this point, but has stepped up and been the top target in New England commanding 23% of the targets, but Maye is adept at spreading the ball around. At various times, he's made week-winners out of Diggs, Mack Hollins, Hunter Henry, and DeMario Douglas. The receivers may not be predictable, but the quarterback and the scheme certainly are, and they'll take on a historically bad defense this week.
The Cincinnati defense still resides near the bottom of the league by most metrics. Against the pass, it's still one of the easiest to produce against. Not every opponent is forced to throw much against the 3-7 Bengals, but those who tend to find consistency. Only the Commanders are giving up more yardage per throw than the Bengals' 7.6. The secondary remains in desperate need of a talent overhaul. Cam Taylor-Britt was no great shakes in coverage, but his injury now forces replacement-level names like Josh Newton and DJ Ivey into hefty roles. The team tries to counter this lack of coverage talent with soft zones set miles off the line of scrimmage, which presents its own issues. Receivers have little trouble finding immediate room for quick throws, either from outside or the slot. The Patriots boast more than enough talent to overwhelm the Bengals this week.
Pittsburgh at Chicago