Top 5 Rushing Matchups
New England at Cincinnati
Rhamondre Stevenson appears to be returning this week after missing the last three games for New England. The big question for the Patriots is how the carry distribution will shake out, given the success that TreVeyon Henderson has had for New England since being the starter. Henderson has scored four touchdowns over the last two games, including a 147-yard two-touchdown performance against Tampa Bay. Henderson is still a boom-or-bust type running back, and by most expectations, it seems like Stevenson will see the bulk of the workload upon his return. Henderson is just not historically a running back who is built to have the 24 touches that he had against the Jets last week, as at just 5'10", 202 pounds, he's on the smaller, but elusive side of NFL running backs. This should be a committee backfield this week for New England, but Henderson should see more than the 20% snap share that he had been seeing the last couple of weeks with Stevenson active.
While Cincinnati's rushing defense statistically looked much improved last week, holding Pittsburgh to just 88 yards on 19 carries, context is needed here. Jaylen Warren left the game with an injury, forcing Kenneth Gainwell to see a significant workload. Before Warren's injury, he looked great as he had 62 yards on 10 carries, while Gainwell was largely held in check with just 24 yards on 9 carries. Gainwell excelled as a receiver against this porous defense as he had 81 receiving yards and two touchdowns, as Cincinnati continues to give up the most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. The major flaw for this defense continues to be the linebackers. Cincinnati's rookie class has largely been a disaster, but nowhere is that more evident than at linebacker. Cincinnati's second-round pick, Demetrius Knight Jr., and fourth-round pick, Barrett Carter, have been two of the worst run-stopping linebackers all season, and at this point, with the team releasing veteran Logan Wilson, the Bengals have no incentive to go back as their season is largely over at 3-7. Cincinnati is likely to be without Trey Hendrickson once again, as he did not practice on Wednesday due to a hip/pelvis injury. He's the one true game changer that they have on defense, as first-round rookie Shemar Stewart was placed on IR, but was struggling even before being placed on IR.
New Orleans vs Atlanta
New Orleans' rushing attack finally showed some signs of life in their last outing as they gave Alvin Kamara 22 carries, which was a season high. Kamara previously had been averaging just 11.8 carries on the season, so to see such a high number was shocking. Unfortunately, this took a bit of a toll on Kamara, who was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice due to an ankle injury. It's not uncommon for running backs to either be limited or miss Wednesday, but nonetheless, it is still something to watch for going forward. It's been a rough year for Kamara, as he's averaging a career-worst 3.6 yards per carry and is on pace for the lowest touchdown volume in his career, as he's scored just two touchdowns all season. He's just lacked the burst he had early in his career. Maybe he's playing through an injury, or now that he's 30, he's starting to slow down as he's not the playmaker he once was. Even as a receiver, he's averaging just 5.9 yards per catch, compared to a career average of 8.2. The rest of the offense does not help matters, as their inability to throw the ball with Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough has also hurt the upside of this rushing attack. Shough has at least shown some upside compared to Rattler, as he threw for 287 yards in their last game.
Atlanta showed some signs of improvement after being embarrassed in Week 10. In Week 10, Jonathan Taylor ran for 244 yards and three touchdowns, but the Falcons were able to shut down Carolina, holding Rico Dowdle to just 45 yards on 19 carries. Atlanta has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, and the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. This unit has one of the best pass defenses in the NFL, but it has created a bit of a funnel, as they're facing the fourth-most rushing attempts against this season. The defensive line is a significant problem for Atlanta, as it is one of the lightest in the NFL. They do not have a player over 300 pounds who gets consistent playing time, and are often playing 243-pound James Pearce Jr. and 240-pound Jalon Walker on the defensive line. While both rookies are exceptionally talented, as indicated by their first-round grades, to properly play those light players, you need some bigger bodies in the middle who can eat up space. Defensive tackles Brandon Dorlus and Ruke Orhorhoro have both struggled in their second season in the NFL.
Houston vs Buffalo