Top 2 Passing Matchups
Seattle vs LA Rams - Good
We didn't see Sam Darnold answer many of the questions about his oblique heading into the 49ers game. Darnold threw just 17 times in the team's 41-6 victory and is still a limited participant in practice this week. While the Seahawks are going to need Darnold to throw more than 17 times to beat the Rams this week, the bigger concern is what they are potentially going to have to do at left tackle. Their top three left tackles all did not practice on either Wednesday or Thursday, and they're left in a precarious position if Charles Cross, Amari Knight, and Josh Jones all miss this week, as it would be down to 2025 seventh-round pick Mason Richman who has not played a snap this season to start against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. As great as Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been this season, we have seen him slow down over the second half of the year. He has topped 100 yards just once in his last eight games, and while he's topped 70 in six of those eight, the Seahawks are reliant on him to play a significant factor in their ability to throw the ball, especially now with Zach Charbonnet out for the playoffs with a torn ACL which will put even more pressure on this passing game this week.
The big question for the Rams this weekend is the health of Byron Young, who has been the team's best pass rusher this season. It looks like he may miss this week, as he has not practiced on either Wednesday or Thursday. If he were to miss, this would still be a talented defense, but they'd likely have to change their defensive philosophy. The Rams blitz at the second-fewest rate in the NFL, relying on Young and Jared Verse as the best pass-rushing duo in the NFL. The Rams are saying all the right things about how it is just a sore knee and that they expect him to play, but it is something to monitor heading into the weekend. The Rams' weakness this season has been their corners, particularly Emmanuel Forbes Jr., who played just four snaps against the Bears last week due to a shoulder injury but is expected to return. Since Week 14, Los Angeles has allowed every quarterback except Kirk Cousins to top 240 passing yards, and in both matchups this season, Sam Darnold has thrown for 270 yards or more. Alongside Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it has been AJ Barner who has found success in their prior matchups, as he had 49 yards and a touchdown and a 10-reception for a 70-yard performance in Week 11.
New England at Denver - Neutral
Drake Maye has not needed to have an exceptional game through the first two weeks of the playoffs, as the defense has been the story in New England. At some point, the Patriots are going to need Maye to play as he did in the regular season, when he completed 72% of his passes, compared to the 58% rate in the playoffs. A big concern is that Maye has been sacked five times in each of the last two weeks and is now facing the league's best pass rush in Denver. The key to the Patriots' success might be the good news: they may be getting Mack Hollins back this week, which provides a much-needed serious threat alongside Kayshon Boutte and Stefon Diggs. Hollins is the team's second-leading receiver this year and was a limited participant on Thursday.
Denver's pass defense is not the elite unit most people think it is. With Patrick Surtain II winning the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year, this has been a defense most have feared. In reality, they've struggled against quality quarterbacks while overwhelming backups, putting together overall respectable numbers. During the regular season they allowed 212 passing yards per game which is the 11th-best, but when you factor in Justin Fields (45 yards), Chris Oladukon (66), Trey Lance (136), Cam Ward (112), and Jake Browning (125) it's clear that these stats have been padded by facing quaterbacks who have no business being regular starters. That's not even factoring in that they faced Geno Smith twice, Davis Mills, and Marcus Mariota. Since Week 11, Denver has allowed 275 yards or more to every regular starter that they've faced except for Geno Smith, and last week, Josh Allen torched this defense for 283 yards and 3 touchdowns. Riley Moss, opposite of Patrick Surtain II, has struggled and consistently been picked on, while replacement safety P.J. Locke has been a significant drop-off from Brandon Jones, who was injured back in Week 15. The key to Denver's success is whether they can rush the passer; they lead the NFL in sacks this season with 68, 11 more than the next-closest team. Meanwhile, New England's flaw has been taking sacks: they've been sacked 49 times, the ninth-most this season and by far the most of any team remaining in the playoffs.