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It's a bittersweet time of year for IDP managers. On one hand, the beginning of the regular season is just around the corner. Soon it will be time to set starting lineups and unleash the fantasy juggernaut drafters assembled on their unsuspecting leaguemates.
On the other hand, that means fantasy draft season is almost over. However, there's still one big weekend of drafts left--the sage and patient souls who waited until the last possible minute to select their teams. That patience has its advantages. They know that "loophole" linebacker Jaylon Carlies of the Indianapolis Colts won't be tackling anyone from his spot on injured reserve. And that Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones decided that having good players is stupid and traded edge rusher Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers.
But waiting until just before the regular season to draft means doing it live--no small feat in IDP leagues where the draft can be 30 rounds or longer. The pressure is ramped up that much more--on (usually) a one-minute clock or less. There is no time to dilly-dally. No chance to ponder and ruminate. Drafters gotta draft.
It is Defcon 1.
Shall we play a game?
In an effort to aid those last-minute IDP drafters in assembling a winning team, we conducted a little exercise here at Footballguys--the FBG IDP Experts League.
We assembled a group of FBG staffers, fleshed out the league with some IDP pundits from other sites (and one IDP veteran who has been a pain in my backside for well over a decade), and participated in a 28-round live draft. The setup is pretty straightforward on both sides of the ball. PPR on offense. Two starters at each position (DL/LB/DB) and two "flex spots" on defense. Relatively vanilla scoring. Essentially, it's what this analyst would call an IDP "starter set."
Here are some of the takeaways from that exercise--knowledge that could be applicable in your own draft over the weekend or early next week.
IDP Expert Draft Takeaways
Travis Hunter Could Go EARLY
I detailed months ago here at Footballguys the impact that Travis Hunter of the Jaguars could have in IDP leagues where he is eligible as a defensive back if he primarily plays wide receiver. One of the reasons this draft was held at Sleeper was to see just how early a manager might reach for that potentially massive edge.
Didn't expect Hunter to be the third overall pick. But he was. Here's what the manager who drafted him (Iggy Gilbert) had to say about the decision.
"Taking Travis Hunter with the third overall pick was an easy choice. Although the scoring is toned down compared to other leagues, the value is clearly evident. Should he finish with a modest 40 receptions (2.35 per game), 350 yards, and 5 touchdowns, then he would accumulate 105 points. Add in tackles, passes defended, and interceptions, and Hunter becomes a potential positional point leader. The thought of having the first two-way player since Chuck Bednarik was an opportunity too good to pass up... particularly with this competition."
Third overall may well have been a touch too aggressive. At that price point, Hunter has to obliterate every other DB in Christian McCaffrey-esque fashion to return value--the next defensive back wasn't taken until Round 11. But that isn't the point here. The point is that if Hunter has DB-eligibility in your draft and you want him, it's going to cost you.
Being Overly Aggressive Can Bite You
The question I get asked more than any other each year is, "When should I start drafting IDPs?" It's a question with no one-size-fits-all answer. There are a number of variables that can affect it--from lineup requirements to scoring and even the personal proclivities of individual drafters.
We didn't have to wait long for that question to be answered here--and I don't mean Hunter. The first "true" IDP came off the board 14th overall in the personage of Indianapolis Colts linebacker Zaire Franklin. Now, there are formats where defensive players are absolutely viable targets that early--in the King's Classic Dick Butkus Division, multiple defenders are taken in Round 1 every year.
But the scoring in this league isn't weighted that heavily for defenders, and after Franklin, the next linebacker didn't come off the board until Pick No. 73--almost five full rounds later. It's the same as drafting Lamar Jackson in Round 2 and then watching as Josh Allen isn't taken until Round 7. Even if Franklin has another phenomenal season, more patient teams will likely receive similar production at a significantly lower cost.
This isn't to say don't be bold on draft day and set the pace on defense. If you're feeling froggy, leap. But pick your spot carefully, Kermit--if the rest of the league doesn't take the bait, you'll have overpaid for that elite IDP and blown a hole in your roster at another position.
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