Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are simply more fun to root for.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Tracking Last Week
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
- Last Week (4-0), + $97
- Season (30-24), + $6
After a very slow start to the season, I thought we might be stuck in the negatives the whole way. However, a fourth-straight winning week has finally put us in the black for the season.
We hit receiving overs on Juwan Johnson (38.5) and Tetairoa McMillan (53.5). McMillan caught 5-of-8 targets for 60 yards. Our hunch that Johnson would be more involved after the Rashid Shaheed trade proved correct, as he went for 92 yards and a touchdown.
We also hit a rushing over on Kyren Williams (64.5) and receiving over on George Kittle (45.5). Kittle had 9 catches for 84 yards and a touchdown. Williams had 14 carries for 73 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Week 11 Pick 1
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The Footballguys Consensus projection has Robinson pegged for 9.5 targets this week, and the volume expectation makes sense. The Giants face a strong Packers run defense and enter as touchdown underdogs. Robinson has seen 11 or more targets in three of his last four games.
Giants receiver Wan'Dale Robinson, the de facto face of the offense, won't bank on a tank
— Geoff Magliocchetti (@GeoffJMags) November 13, 2025
My latest:#NYGiants https://t.co/j7TqoPiWeR
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This is also a great way to get indirect exposure to new Giants starting quarterback Jameis Winston. Wide receivers tend to thrive with Winston under center. In the six games last season where he played at least 80% of the snaps, he averaged 315.3 passing yards per game—a 17-game pace of 5,361 yards.
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Jacobs has scored at least one touchdown in 17 of his last 18 games. His anytime touchdown props have been a staple of this column for good reason. They continue to be underpriced given the consistency of his role and Green Bay’s run-heavy approach near the goal line.
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The matchup is ideal. The Packers offense has been consistently inconsistent, struggling against strong defenses but lighting up bad ones. They have scored at least 27 points and gained 400 or more total yards against Washington, Dallas, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh. All four rank in the Top 5 in fantasy PPG allowed over expectation. The Giants rank 6th in that metric, which suggests the Packers should move the ball and put up points.
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The defense versus position numbers all point toward Jacobs as the primary beneficiary. Only the Bengals give up more PPG above expectation to opposing running backs than the Giants, who allow 6.3.
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The Giants have given up 12 total touchdowns to opposing running backs, tied for the third-most in the NFL.