Let's have some fun and try to win a few dollars this season. Here's how this article will work: each week, I'll share my favorite player props, put my own real money behind them, post a screenshot of the bets, and explain why I like each pick. Sometimes the reasoning will come from deep statistical analysis, and other times it'll just be a gut call. For every pick, I'll walk you through my thought process. If it makes sense to you, feel free to tail me.
The goal is simple: end the week with more money in my Underdog account than I started with. At the same time, this is meant to be recreational, geared toward anyone who wants to add a little excitement to the games with a small bet. Most of the picks will lean toward overs, because overs are more fun to root for.
How It Works
Underdog Pick'em is a fun twist on daily fantasy games where you predict whether a player will go higher or lower than their projected stats across categories like touchdowns, yards, or fantasy points. To play, simply pick at least two props from two different teams. You can choose player stats like touchdowns, rushing yards, or even fantasy points and predict whether they will go higher or lower than the projected numbers.
Tracking Last Week
I will track every Pick Em I make this season and start each week's article with a quick review of what went wrong and what went right the previous week.
- Last Week (3-1), $0
- Season (37-35), - $194
Ja'Marr Chase (87.5) topped 90 receiving yards for the eighth time in ten games, which, along with our Josh Allen freebie, gave us a small win. In our other prop, we hit the over on Adonai Mitchell receiving yards, but came up short on Audric Estime's rushing yardage over. This one was frustrating because Taysom Hill unexpectedly accounted for 48% of the team's carries.
Week 17 Prop #1
-
Pierce has topped 67 receiving yards in 9 of his 13 games this season.
-
It did not take long for Pierce to emerge as one of Philip Rivers’ preferred targets. He led the Colts last week with 86 receiving yards and two touchdowns against the 49ers.
Indianapolis Colts' Philip Rivers On Alec Pierce's Strong Day vs. San Francisco 49ers pic.twitter.com/pjqRFTZ3h5
— Jake Arthur (@JakeArthurNFL) December 23, 2025
-
Jacksonville profiles as a pass-funnel defense. The Jaguars have faced the fewest rushing attempts in the NFL (328) and the second-most passing attempts (571).
-
Pierce caught five passes for 80 yards on eight targets against the Jaguars in Week 14.
-
Downs also emerged as a trusted option for Rivers last week, catching five of nine targets for 65 yards.
-
Like Pierce, he should benefit from Jacksonville’s pass-heavy defensive profile.
-
Downs has topped 69 receiving yards in two of his last three games against Indianapolis.
-
Divisional history matters here. Thomas has averaged 104 receiving yards per game in three career matchups against the Colts and has cleared 87 yards in each of those games.
-
Indianapolis has allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL this season. During their current five-game losing streak, they have surrendered at least 244 passing yards in every game.
-
Last week, Brock Purdy threw for 295 yards and five touchdowns, as the Colts struggled badly in coverage without their top two cornerbacks.
