Knowing ADP is one of the most underrated fantasy football skills. Most importantly, it gives you an idea of when you can expect players to go off the board, but it also gives you a window into the level of skepticism or faith that the fantasy football hive mind has in each player's ability to meet or exceed what they have done in the past. With that in mind, there are players whose ADPs don't align with their past performance and projected future. Knowing where the gaps are between perception and reality is what fantasy draft season is all about. Which ADPs don't make sense?
QB Malik Willis, Miami
- ADP: 137 (QB21)
- My Rank: QB18
Willis has the weakest supporting cast in the league, and his success last year came in a tiny two-game sample size, but that shouldn't discourage you from taking him as your second or third (or only if not everyone carries a backup) quarterback. We already know that barely viable passers like Justin Fields can still be weekly QB1 plays because of their rushing upside. Willis could also get the advantage of multiple garbage time drives in some games. He could be this year's Jacoby Brissett with the additional value of running, both by design in the regular course of the offense, and in the red zone. Willis is a free square draft pick at ADP, especially in leagues with point per 25 pass yards and four-point passing touchdowns.
Malik Willis Verdict: Smash
RB Omarion Hampton, LA Chargers
- ADP: 15 (RB9)
- My Rank: RB13
Believe it or not, Hampton was being outplayed by Najee Harris before Harris went down with an Achilles injury. He could have had a rookie year more like TreVeyon Henderson's, but Harris's injury opened the door to a lead back role and more engaged Hampton. We saw his size/speed combination and some big fantasy football days, but Hampton also went down with an ankle injury. While Hampton was out, Kimani Vidal showed that he can be a core contributor. Once Hampton was healthy enough to return, Vidal was actually used more, and almost exclusively in passing situations. Hampton might not have been 100% yet, and there is a new offensive coaching staff this year, but most of Hampton's receptions were dumpoffs. He's not a limber, agile player in space and won't be featured as a receiver despite the illusion of passing down viability in last year's numbers.
Speaking of the new coaches, offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel went out and got Keaton Mitchell in free agency, signaling a three-headed backfield. Hampton could be a Derrick Henry-esque force as the point of the spear in the running game, and he's a similar type of runner who should almost always be attacking downhill, which doesn't exactly line up with an interior offensive line that is a work in progress, to say the least. Henry's fantasy value is a best-case scenario for Hampton, and yet Hampton is going at least 5 picks earlier, if not an entire round, before proving that he can play at Henry's level, or that the Chargers' offensive line can put him on a trajectory to overachieve.
Omarion Hampton Verdict: Pass
RB Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia
- ADP: 14 (RB8)
- My Rank: RB11
We all knew that Barkley's 2024 wasn't the new norm for him, but even the most pessimistic projection would not have put him at a 7.5 PPR point per game level lower in 2025. That's exactly what happened, putting Barkley at RB17 on a PPR PPG basis. Yet he is being drafted as RB8. The Eagles traded away their best downfield receiving threat (AJ Brown), had their legendary offensive line coach (Jeff Stoutland) leave the team, and hired Sean Mannion - with exactly two years of coaching experience - to run the offense and call plays. Hopefully Mannion's two years under Matt LaFleur as first an offensive assistant and then Jordan Love's quarterback coach will prepare him, but there will certainly be growing pains. The team is also adding a lot more outside zone to their running game, which requires a decisiveness and hard-nosed approach to contact that aren't exactly Barkley's calling cards as a runner.
The offensive line had a lot of bad injury luck, Kevin Patullo was a terrible playcaller, and the pass offense sputtered last year. Watch Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens camp news, as both are potential injury worries. To get the gains in the outside zone running game, the Eagles will be doing a lot more under center with Jalen Hurts, which might not go well. Their pass game coordinator, Josh Grizzard, was fired by the Bucs after their pass offense cratered - in part due to injury woes of their own. There's a lot of question marks around Barkley, which should be something that knocks him down well into the third round around someone like Javonte Williams, who had similar stats to Barkley last year, and is in arguably a much better situation.
Saquon Barkley Verdict: Pass
RBs TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson, New England
- ADP: 49 (RB20) and 79 (RB30)
- My Ranks: RB30 and RB23
Last year, Henderson was going in the 4th round on the mystery-box rookie promise, plus a lot of positive buzz out of Patriots camp. Stevenson held him off for the starting job, but suffered a bout of fumbilitis and then got hurt. Henderson ripped off multiple long touchdown runs in his stead, and many assumed a changing of the guard had been set in motion. Instead, Stevenson seized the starting job when he returned and was the clear primary back in the playoffs as the team made it to the Super Bowl. Stevenson also finished the regular season with six touchdowns in the last three games. Henderson has been working on pass blocking this offseason, an indication that he still needs to improve to threaten Stevenson's status as the lead back. Unless we hear that Henderson is consistently the first back up in practices, these ADPs should be flipped.
TreVeyon Henderson Verdict: Pass
Rhamondre Stevenson Verdict: Smash
