We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Baltimore Ravens Coin-Toss Questions:
- Where do you rank Lamar Jackson?
- Is Derrick Henry's handcuff on the roster?
- Where do you rank Mark Andrews?
- Is Zay Flowers a WR1, WR2, or lower?
- Do you expect the Ravens to rely on a rookie at WR or TE? If not, how do you rank Bateman, Walker, and Wester?
Q: Lamar Jackson is currently QB2 in ADP, despite massive changes, including a new head coach and new play-caller (Declan Doyle), who has zero play-calling experience. Where do you rank Jackson?
Maurile Tremblay: I think QB2 is too high. His ADP asks you to bet that everything breaks right in year one of a massive transition. Doyle has zero play-calling reps at any level. The offensive line remains a work in progress. I'd rank Jackson in the QB4-QB6 range.
Jeff Haseley: I have Jackson as the QB5 or QB6. The combination of a first-time play-caller in Declan Doyle and the loss of Todd Monken is a lot of "new" for an elite ADP. If he's healthy, the floor is high, but QB2 feels like you're paying for a ceiling that might be capped by growing pains in the new system.
Meng Song: His ADP seems fine. Prior to his first injury last year, Jackson was the No. 1 overall quarterback in fantasy over Josh Allen. So, if anything, Jackson is a value, with Allen slightly overdrafted given the full-round-plus gap between their respective ADPs.
Andy Hicks: At his peak, Lamar Jackson is fully deserving of the QB2 ranking. With a new head coach and play-caller, and coming off a down year, his current ADP essentially reflects his ceiling. That introduces some risk, but it's a gamble worth considering. The quarterbacks ranked behind him carry similar, if not greater, downside risks, yet none possess Jackson's league-winning upside if the coaching changes unlock his best form. Even at QB2, he may require a leap of faith, but the potential reward still outweighs the alternatives.
VERDICT: Jackson projects as QB6, the last of the elite QB1 tier.
While Meng's optimism remains unbridled, my other colleagues and I see things the same way. Jackson's history justifies drafting him as a top-end starter, but he is at the bottom of that tier because of the massive overhaul in the team's construction. We can't assume the new coaches will be able to optimize the roster the way Monken did. We also can't assume Jackson will run as much as he did during his MVP-caliber seasons, given his age, the new system, and his mounting injury history.
Q: Is Derrick Henry's handcuff on the roster currently? If so, who is it?
Maurile Tremblay: As things stand, there's no clear, rosterable handcuff behind Henry. Justice Hill is the RB2, but he's coming off a neck injury, and Rasheen Ali doesn't really fit a three-down role if Henry goes down. Given that Henry turns 32 this year and the backfield depth is thin, the Ravens should add a running back in the mid-to-late rounds. Whoever they bring in could become a worthwhile late-round fantasy stash.
Jeff Haseley: As of now, the primary backup is Justice Hill. The Ravens let Keaton Mitchell walk in free agency, leaving Rasheen Ali as the only other real competition. If you're looking to back up Derrick Henry, Hill is the guy, though he's more of a change-of-pace than a direct replacement for Henry's power.
Meng Song: There is no handcuff for Henry. Justice Hill and Rasheen Ali would likely split work alongside a third running back, whether that's via the upcoming draft or a trade if Henry were to miss significant time.
Andy Hicks: With Keaton Mitchell departing for the Chargers, there is no other back on the Ravens roster equipped to step in. Justice Hill has more than 50 carries in a year once since 2020. He is more useful as a change of pace and receiving back. The others will struggle to make the final roster. The draft remains the most likely avenue for adding a new backup, though viable options could also emerge via free agency or trade. Derrick Henry has been remarkably durable, even at 32, but eventually the clock catches up with every running back. Whether by design or circumstance, the Ravens' plan isn't clear yet, but it should come into focus over the next month.
VERDICT: There is no handcuff on the roster.
Neither Justice Hill nor Rasheen Ali is equipped to be a full-time replacement for an injured Henry. More importantly, the combination of the two is unlikely to give the Ravens what they require. This remains one of the team's glaring needs as free agency enters its latter phases and the April draft approaches.
