I've spent a lot of time over the last two months sharing my views on many players -- almost exclusively looking at those I believe to be great values.
You're not going to catch me making lists of players I'm avoiding.
DON'T MISS OUT: Order the 2026 Footballguys Draft Guide before they are all gone.
There will be no "Do Not Draft" list or "These Players Will Destroy Your Roster" discussion.
That's because I have a simple rule when it comes to drafting. The philosophy is this:
Every Player at the Right Price
I believe that, and I draft that way. But it doesn't mean I actually draft every player.
The whole "right price" thing makes it easy for me to pass on players in favor of others with the potential for high-end outcomes at better prices.
This has kept me from rostering a number of players with a ton of upside.
Yes, those last three words haunt me -- or at least have me revisiting some of them. Often, what feels like a sharp pick might be more of a blind spot.
The difference between a fantasy blind spot and smart drafting is whether new information changes a player's value relative to his price and alternatives -- and when it does, your draft behavior should change with it.
We'll get the ball rolling with a look at running backs I've seen differently than the fantasy hive mind has, starting with my . . .
Biggest Blind Spot
I've been drafting in best balls since February. I have zero shares of Eagles running back Saquon Barkley.
Why Am I Avoiding Him?
A year after winning the Super Bowl with Kellen Moore calling the plays that led to Barkley having a historic 2024 season, the Eagles ranked in the bottom 10 in every major offensive category last season -- Kevin Patullo's lone season running the offense.
Barkley experienced a significant drop-off from his 2024 Offensive Player of the Year campaign, in which he eclipsed 2,000 rushing yards and averaged 5.8 yards per carry.
He finished his second campaign with the Eagles after turning 280 carries into 1,140 yards and seven scores. He also hauled in 37 of 50 targets for 273 yards and two touchdowns over 16 regular-season contests.
That's a massive drop by NFL standards, but from a fantasy perspective, it was an even greater disappointment.
Barkley racked up 351.2 fantasy points in 2024, the second most among all running backs. His 22 points per game were the most in the league.
Last year, those numbers fell to 232.3 total points and 14.5 per game.
Barkley finished as RB15 -- well off his RB2 Average Draft Position (ADP) last summer, when he was selected with the third pick overall.
What's Changed?
The Eagles hired Green Bay quarterbacks coach Sean Mannion to replace Patullo as their offensive coordinator in January.
Mannion played under Sean McVay with the Rams and coached in Green Bay under Matt LaFleur, who worked under Mike Shanahan in Washington. Whether it's McVay, LaFleur, or fellow Washington assistant Kyle Shanahan at the helm, this scheme has been great for fantasy investors.
How does it differ from what he's been doing?
Barkley will be running a lot more outside zone with the quarterback under center. That second point shouldn't be overlooked.
As Dave Spadaro of the team's official website noted, for a running back, having the quarterback under center versus having the quarterback in the shotgun presents a new way of conducting business. In the world of precision and fundamentals, it can be a seismic change.
But the bottom line is clear: Barkley has to evolve.
His ability to adjust physically and mentally to the alignment and the one-cut-and-go style of play will be important.
But it's new to Barkley, and it's fair to wonder how he'll fit.
What Isn't Changing?
This is an offense that is going to be dependent on the run game. For the offense to succeed, the offensive line needs to be healthy, and Barkley needs to get going.
Also, Barkley is 29 years old.
He won't be getting any younger, and SI.com Eagles beat writer Ed Kracz told me last week it's fair to wonder what's left in the tank.
"Father Time is undefeated," Kracz said. "As you get a little older, especially at running back, you have a short shelf life."
Kracz acknowledged that Barkley works hard and invests considerable resources in his body. But he also noted there's talk at team headquarters about using Tank Bigsby to lighten Barkley's workload and keep him fresh all season.
Reasons to Open My Eyes
Barkley believes this new system can open up some things for him that he hasn't been able to showcase to this point in his career.
In addition, he'll remain a central figure.
"That's the plan," the coordinator told reporters. "Saquon is a focal point of our offense, that goes without saying."
Some positives are coming out early in training camp, with the heavy use of misdirection in Mannion's offense being among them. It has helped open up big holes for the running backs early on.
Better still, as Footballguy Jason Wood noted in his Week 1 Eagles Training Camp Report, "Barkley's exceptional agility and lateral speed tailor perfectly to the new scheme, producing consistent chunk gains in team periods."
Also, not to be overlooked, Barkley is very good.
In the four seasons in which he's played 16 games, he's finished inside the top 10 at his position three times, with last year's RB15 finish being the outlier.
I expect the change of play-caller and some better injury luck along the offensive line to work in the former Giants' favor.
Currently sitting at RB10 on the Footballguys projections, Barkley is the seventh running back off the board with the 13th pick overall. That disparity helps make my case.
Even with the positive reporting, there's risk at this price.
Blind Spot or Smart Drafting?
What might have started as more of a blind spot seems increasingly like smart drafting to me.
Whether I take a running back or wide receiver in the first round, I'd rather pass on Barkley early in Round 2 and take my chances with a wideout or any number of running backs whose prices and roles I find appealing.
That list includes Omarion Hampton (RB8) going a pick after Barkley; Chase Brown (RB10), who's going with the 16th pick overall; Derrick Henry (RB23) at the end of Round 2; Breece Hall (RB15) and Javonte Williams (RB16), who both go in Round 3; and a pair of fourth-rounders, Cam Skattebo (RB18) and David Montgomery (RB20).
I'm more comfortable going with all those options at cost.
