In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll fade some big names -- yes, even ones that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at nine players: four that merit lineup consideration (the In), four that don't hit quite right (the Out), and an Outlier of the Week.
First, let me stress: if any of my choices make you uneasy, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In and Out Accountability
I use this spot to review my previous week's results. It's been an interesting season. Since I didn't much care for my 3-6 finish in Week 8, it's safe to say I'm a little happier this week. But that Week 9 happiness is relative.
Let's see how it went, eh?
- I was in on Broncos QB Bo Nix, who was projected for a QB16 finish (with 17.2 points). I believed Nix's recent increase in production was sustainable in a matchup with the Panthers, and I predicted he would finish inside the top 15. He was QB12. We start with a hit. ✅
- I was out on Saints QB Tyler Shough, who was projected for a QB11 finish (with 18.49 points) against a Cleveland defense that was giving up the seventh-fewest points to the position. I thought he'd fall outside QB1 territory, but a touchdown pass in overtime led to a QB8 finish. A darned miss. ❌
- I was in on Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty, who was projected to finish the week as RB17 (with 14.3 points). While Jeanty did see the playing-time pendulum swing back in his direction, the production didn't follow -- even against a Niners defense that's been generous to pass-catching backs. They weren't as benevolent in this one, and Jeanty finished as RB36. A swing and a miss. ❌
- I was out on Packers RB Josh Jacobs, who was projected for an RB14 finish (with 15.38 points). I expected him to fall short of that mark. He might well have exceeded it if he was able to stay on the field. But a broken finger cut his night short and led to an RB67 finish. Injuries can work both ways on the In and Out. This one worked in my favor. A hit. ✅
- I was in on (then-)Colts WR Keenan Allen, who was projected for a WR30 finish (with 11.2 points) against a Cowboys defense that has struggled to slow opposing wideouts. They did not struggle in this one. I predicted Allen would finish in WR2 territory. Though he'll get another chance against the Cowboys this week after a trade to San Francisco, Allen didn't come close to my WR2 prediction, finishing instead as WR52. Another miss. ❌
- I was out on Bills WR DJ Moore, who was projected to finish as WR24 (with 12.2 points) in a tough matchup against the Vikings. I predicted Moore would finish outside WR2 territory. Unlike the Cowboys, the Vikings did the expected. They slowed Josh Allen and silenced Moore, who finished as WR54. That's a hit. ✅
- I was in on Lions TE Sam LaPorta, who was projected to finish as TE8 (with 12 points) in a favorable matchup against the Dolphins. It was so favorable that I predicted a TE7 or better finish. Much like the Cowboys, Miami's defense saw it differently. They put the clamps on Jared Goff and Detroit's passing offense, and they held LaPorta to a TE23 performance. A massive miss. ❌
- I was out on Cardinals TE Trey McBride, who was projected for a TE3 finish (with 17 points). I predicted he would finish outside the top five at his position. I wasn't betting against McBride as much as I was betting on the field. Enter Darren Waller and AJ Barner, a pair of outliers who finished inside the top five and helped push McBride down to TE6. A hit. ✅
- As for my Outlier of the Week, Dolphins TE Greg Dulcich? He was projected for a TE18 finish (with 9 points) in the most favorable tight-end matchup going. I felt he would finish inside the top 15 going up against the Lions, who hadn't stopped a tight end all season until they shut down Dulcich, who finished as TE41. A miss. ❌
Well, my 4-5 finish surpassed Week 8's effort, but it's still not up to snuff. Of course, I have nobody to blame but myself -- and maybe an extra quarter for Shough, Jeanty's negative receiving yards, suddenly stout Dallas, Miami, and Detroit defenses, and an increasingly volatile NFL season that's trying hard to run me off the rails.
Here's where we stand after Week 9:
Week 9: 4-5
Season: 33-48
The goal here, whether it's realistic or not, is to finish at .500 or better on my predictions. With Week 9 in the books, I'm sitting at .407, and my chances of hitting the objective grow increasingly tenuous.
And with that, let's dive into Week 10.
Week 10 Picks at a Glance
In: Geno Smith, Ollie Gordon II, Rashee Rice, Hunter Henry
Out: Jordan Love, Chase Brown, Drake London, Harold Fannin Jr.
Outlier to Watch: Chris Rodriguez Jr.
Quarterback
In: Geno Smith, NY Jets vs. Buffalo
As SB Nation's Sean Murphy noted, Smith has been solid in his second go-round with the Jets, as he's thrown 12 touchdown passes against just three interceptions so far this season.
Among 30 quarterbacks with 150 or more attempts, Smith is fifth in completion percentage (67.5 percent), tied for seventh in completions of 20-plus yards (24), second in completions of 40-plus yards (9), tied for the fourth-fewest interceptions (3), 10th in passing yards (2,078) and 11th in yards per attempt (7.7).
After nine games, five of which were losses by one score, Smith has spread the ball to 13 receivers.
Meanwhile, the Bills are coming off a pair of impressive defensive showings.
But those outstanding efforts came against Baltimore's Joe Fagnano and Minnesota's Carson Wentz. While Buffalo held that duo to a combined 172 passing yards, no touchdowns, and three interceptions, along with two lost fumbles, Footballguy Devin Knotts pointed out in his Week 10 Passing Matchups that those games were about as soft as it gets for a pass defense.
Smith might not be elite, but he's not Fagnano or Wentz, and before that two-game run, Buffalo gave up 313 yards and two touchdowns to Kirk Cousins and 383 yards and three touchdowns to Matthew Stafford in back-to-back games.
Buffalo has also allowed 15 passing touchdowns this season, and four quarterbacks have scored 18-plus fantasy points against them this season. With the Bills an 8.5-point favorite, the expectation is Smith will get ample opportunity to rack up points through the air.
Garrett Wilson's anticipated return from a concussion adds to Smith's appeal.
Bottom line: Smith's Footballguys projection calls for a QB18 finish with 15.9 points. I say Smith is primed to beat that QB18 finish.
Out: Jordan Love, Green Bay vs. Minnesota
After nine weeks of play, Love leads the NFL in passing yards and sits third in passing TDs with 19. As ESPN's Mike Clay suggested, that's a big reason Love has the third-most QB fantasy points -- and he has finished as QB7 or better in four of the past five weeks.
Last week, Love scored 34.2 fantasy points for a QB2 overall finish as he carved up the Patriots to the tune of 372 yards, three touchdown passes, one rushing TD, and no interceptions -- and he didn't even play the final nine minutes of the game.
Obviously, I'm not here to tell you to sit a quarterback who has scored 20-plus points in four of his last five games.
But I am going to recommend resetting your expectations.
The Vikings have allowed the fewest fantasy points and fantasy points per dropback to opposing quarterbacks.
Love did have some success against this defense in Week 1, putting up 21.5 fantasy points for a QB10 finish. But in seven games since then, the Vikings have allowed a total of 51.4 fantasy points (just over 7 points per game). They held opposing QBs to single-digit scoring in six of those seven games, with Josh Allen's 12.9 points last week the most they've allowed since Week 1.
And in that game, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores blitzed Love at a 78.3 percent rate, the fourth-highest by any defense in a game since at least 2018. Love still threw for 387 yards on 42 attempts, but he was sacked four times, hit 15 times, and turned the ball over twice in the final five minutes.
That pass rush is a concern; Sunday will be no walk in the park.
Bottom line: Love's Footballguys projection calls for a QB7 finish with 19 points. That seems optimistic. I predict Love will finish outside the top 10.
Running Back
In: Ollie Gordon II, Miami @ Indianapolis
Gordon has seized control of Miami's backfield since De'Von Achane's season-ending knee injury, recording at least 17 touches in each of his last four games, with 35 carries over his past two games, although those games haven't been ideal.
Gordon put up just 7.4 fantasy points in last week's loss to the Lions, and he's been held to 14.3 total points over that two-game span.
Perhaps some additional volume would help.
With starting quarterback Malik Willis on injured reserve (groin), and Kyle McCord making his first NFL start, expect the Dolphins to continue relying on Gordon and the rushing attack.
While a new starter could be a limiting factor for the entire offense, Gordon faces a Colts defense that ranks 30th against the run at 137 yards allowed per game. Last Sunday, the Cowboys ran 34 times for 179 yards -- including six runs of 10 or more yards.
As Knotts wrote in his Week 10 Rushing Matchups, "Explosive plays have been the theme all year for Lou Anarumo's defense."
As a result, their defense has allowed five different running backs to score 22-plus fantasy points, including three since Week 5. In their last two games, since DeForest Buckner was traded to the 49ers, Bhayshul Tuten racked up 29.9 fantasy points, and Javonte Williams scored 22.4.
Bottom line: Gordon's Footballguys projection calls for an RB14 finish with 14.1 points. I think he'll get some end-zone good fortune -- Gordon has a 48 percent implied probability to score an anytime touchdown in this one -- and exceed that RB14 finish.
Out: Chase Brown, Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh
According to long-time Bengals observer Charlie Goldsmith, 20 NFL running backs have carried the ball more than Brown this season.
Instead of getting the chance to build on what was a breakout 2025 season, Brown has had to embrace the small wins in a season where he hasn't rushed for more than 80 yards in a game.
His fantasy numbers reflect that.
As FantasyPros' Derek Brown noted, Brown is the RB20 in fantasy points per game as a weekly volume play. He's had bad touchdown luck, with zero touchdowns since Week 1 and only one score this season.
Before last week, Brown didn't have a single run of 15-plus yards, which raised questions about his explosiveness.
Despite Brown's pedestrian production, the Bengals have won four straight. But as Knotts noted, none of it has come on the ground. The problem is the identity of this offense. Cincinnati entered Week 9 throwing on 65 percent of its plays, the second-highest rate in the league, and it came in as the league's third-worst rushing offense.
If that isn't depressing enough, Pittsburgh's run defense has been one of the best in the league, and it comes into this game fresh off its bye.
The Steelers rank third in the NFL at 83.9 rushing yards allowed per game and have given up just four rushing touchdowns all season. Over their last five games, they've allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate, the third-lowest rushing success rate, and the fewest yards before contact per attempt.
The Bengals did score 27 points against this defense in a 30-27 loss back in Week 3, so they can move the ball against Pittsburgh. And Brown, who has a 14.5 percent target share, has a receiving role.
But Knotts contends Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase (who boasts a 25.7 percent target share), and Tee Higgins (a 22.6 percent target share) will be doing the heavy lifting.
That's not new.
Brown has finished outside RB1 territory in all eight games this season; he's been outside the top 20 four times.
Bottom line: Brown's Footballguys projection calls for an RB13 finish with 15 points. While he's hit that RB13 mark twice this season, it hasn't been the norm. I say Brown will fall short of that mark again this week.
Wide Receiver
In: Rashee Rice, Kansas City @ Atlanta
As Pro Football Network noted, Rice has dealt with knee and hamstring injuries this season, missing three games, but he's remained a reliable contributor when healthy.
Averaging approximately 11 fantasy points per game, Rice has scored at least 9.9 fantasy points in each of his five full appearances this season. He produced 9.9 fantasy points back in Week 1 and matched that season low against the Jets on Sunday.
Those two single-digit outings bookended three games with 12-plus fantasy points -- his only other full games this season.
Rice has delivered either one touchdown or 83-plus yards in four out of his five games, and while his usage is down from prior years, he has still handled six-plus targets in four consecutive full games.
In fact, over the last two games, Rice has returned to his low aDOT ways (2.47) with a 20.8 percent target share, one red-zone target, and a 22.6 percent first-read share. In these two outings, his slot rate has also bumped to 54.9 percent.
Patrick Mahomes II's top wide receiver, Rice faces an Atlanta defense that has allowed the sixth-most catches and the 12th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Chase and Higgins both produced 20-plus points against the Falcons in Week 9.
In addition, as Brown points out, Atlanta has faced the eighth-fewest slot targets over the last five games but still ranks 16th in yards per target allowed to the position. When teams actually test Atlanta's slot coverage, receivers gain healthy yardage on those throws.
Bottom line: Rice's Footballguys projection calls for a WR20 finish with 13 points. I believe his increasing workload dovetails nicely with this matchup. Rice will finish better than WR20.
Out: Drake London, Atlanta vs. Kansas City
Moving to the other side of this matchup, Knotts notes that Atlanta's passing game has hit a wall. It's hard to argue the point after Michael Penix Jr. followed his four-interception disaster in the Tampa rain with a flat performance in Madrid, completing 20 of 31 passes for just 162 yards with a touchdown and a late interception in a 34-17 loss to Cincinnati.
The Falcons have now lost four of five games, and after they were shut out against the Bucs in Week 8, their offense has scored 17 points total across its last two games.
Enter London, who, as ESPN.com's Tristan Cockcroft notes, has had a frustrating 2026.
That frustration peaked for all involved in Week 8, when London was held to 1.8 fantasy points. That's not bad considering Penix finished the day with negative points, but it's hard to reconcile after the Penix-London combo was almost unstoppable together last season.
Against the Bengals, Penix's poor showing trickled down to London, who finished the week as WR34 with 11.8 points.
Kansas City presents a much tougher test than Cincinnati did.
Per Knotts, the Chiefs rank seventh against the pass at 210.4 yards per game, and the more important number is touchdowns, as they've allowed only seven passing scores all season, tied for the second-fewest in the league. They rank second in red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on just 36.8 percent of trips, and third in scoring defense at 17.9 points per game.
More to the point, the Chiefs have allowed only one wide receiver to score more than 15 points all season, and they've held the position to the fewest fantasy points per target (1.34). Also worth noting, the Chiefs are only 3.5-point favorites. A close game won't require the Falcons to go pass-heavy.
So, as Cockcroft put it, "London's Week 10 brings the risk of both a poor matchup and unfavorable game script."
Bottom line: London's Footballguys projection calls for a WR12 finish with 15.9 points. I say he falls outside WR1 territory.
Tight End
In: Hunter Henry, New England @ Detroit (in Munich)
As Cockcroft noted, even though the emergence of rookie Eli Raridon has cut into Henry's targets, the veteran shapes up as a Week 10 sleeper due to the matchup.
Henry has been dealing with a foot injury for a few weeks. That's opened the door to Raridon, but with Henry off the injury report this week, expecting him to move back into the forefront at the position makes sense.
And, as SI.com's Michael Fabiano noted, the Patriots' matchup against the Lions makes Henry a legitimate streamer.
According to Knotts, Detroit owns the worst pass defense in the league on paper, and the last two weeks haven't proven otherwise. The Lions allow 260.9 passing yards per game, which ranks 32nd, and they've given up 18 passing touchdowns, one of the highest totals in the NFL.
While they just spoiled my Dulcich pick, I'm not giving up here, because the Lions have been especially poor against opposing tight ends.
Nine different tight ends have beaten Detroit for 13-plus points, and only the Broncos have allowed more points per game to the position since Week 4.
Considering the Patriots-Lions game entered the week with the second-highest over/under (51.5), there should be enough passing volume to give Henry a chance to excel.
Bottom line: Henry's Footballguys projection calls for a TE12 finish with 9.5 points. With a high-end quarterback in Drake Maye, I expect Henry to exceed that TE12 spot.
Out: Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland vs. Houston
This season, Fannin has totaled 453 yards and four touchdowns, and he's made a huge impact on the Browns' offense. His efforts are a big reason why they're 5-4, and they'll be looking to improve on that as the season continues.
For our purposes, Fannin has also been great. He's the TE7 on the season with 11.6 points per game.
According to Brown, Fannin heads into Week 10 with a 17.7 percent target share, four red-zone targets, two deep targets, and an 18.1 percent first-read share. But in New Orleans in Week 9, Fannin didn't score a single fantasy point in regulation (all of his points came in overtime).
And even though Houston's defense hasn't been all we expected this year, they have been amazing against tight ends. Over their last five games, they have held the position to the second-fewest yards per target, and the second-fewest overall fantasy points to the position.
I don't know that many of us will have the options necessary to bench Fannin, but we should set our expectations accordingly.
Bottom line: Fannin's Footballguys projection calls for a TE8 finish with 11.2 points. I'm not expecting a regulation-time shutout, but I am expecting Fannin to fall short of that TE8 spot.
Outlier of the Week
Don't look now, but Jaguars running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. has scored a touchdown in each of the past two games against Indianapolis and Baltimore, and he also has three catches for 30 yards on three targets over that span.
Even playing second fiddle to Tuten, Rodriguez has scored at least 11.2 points in each of those games, finishing as RB21 and RB20 in Weeks 8 and 9.
As CBSSports.com's Jamey Eisenberg noted, Rodriguez, who has 12 red-zone carries this year, will be going up against a Titans defense that has allowed nine running backs to score at least 10.7 points this season -- and Jeffery Simmons was traded to Chicago and is no longer clogging up the middle of Tennessee's defense.
Rodriguez's Footballguys projection calls for an RB39 finish with 7.3 points. He's well positioned to exceed that finish.
One more time: I'm taking chances and painting outside the lines here. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
Harris was the FSWA's first-ever Football Writer of the Year back in 2004; he was inducted into that organization's Hall of Fame in 2013. Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
Follow @footballdiehard Follow @Footballguys
