We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Buffalo Bills Coin-Toss Questions:
- Will the Bills add a legitimate RB2 to spell James Cook?
- Are you an eternal optimist about Dalton Kincaid?
- Where do you slot DJ Moore — WR1, WR2, or lower?
- Does your Moore outlook hinge on the Bills not drafting a high-end rookie receiver?
Q: James Cook led the league in rushing last year. Do you expect the Bills to stand pat at the position or add a legitimate RB2 that can help spell Cook more in 2026?
Meng Song: Buffalo seems to like Ty Johnson quite a bit. Maybe they'll add a Day 3 rookie or cheap free agent, but I don't expect them to make any major additions in the backfield.
Maurile Tremblay: Cook's 2025 rushing title was historic. He became the first Bill to lead the league in rushing since O.J. Simpson in 1976. The Bills seem comfortable betting on Cook's durability, so I'd expect them to largely stand pat at the position even though the roster currently lacks a strong number two. After a promising rookie season in 2024, Ray Davis saw his offensive role diminish in 2025 as he averaged fewer than 3 offensive touches per game. His value as a kickoff returner will keep him on the roster, but he's not necessarily a reliable No. 2 as a ball carrier. Ty Johnson, the third-down specialist, is a cut candidate due to his $2.5 million in cap savings. But he hasn't been released yet, and his pass-blocking and receiving ability could make him worth keeping. The Bills would benefit from someone who can take eight to ten carries per game to keep Cook fresh. But I believe they'll try to fill that role with Davis, Johnson, and a late-round rookie or undrafted free agent rather than spending significant draft capital or free-agent dollars at the position.
Jeff Haseley: Cook is coming off a massive year, but asking him to repeat that workload without a true backup is a risky ask. While the Bills might not break the bank, I expect them to look into a veteran on a short deal or a mid-round draft pick who can handle the short gains with size and power.
VERDICT: Cook will remain a workhorse, but I expect a different RB2 to emerge.
It wouldn’t be surprising or even ill-advised for Buffalo to run it back with Cook, Johnson, and Davis as the top three tailbacks. Whether Buffalo adds another viable threat won't meaningfully change my projections for the team or Cook. However, I do think the decision to let Sean McDermott go and promote Joe Brady means the team is going all in for a Super Bowl while maintaining its offensive approach. To me, that means they want to be able to run the ball in any game script, and as Maurile notes, that probably means they need someone other than Johnson or Davis in the tuck if Cook gets hurt.
Q: Dalton Kincaid has yet to finish as a TE1 (Top 12), yet fantasy managers always expect a breakout. Are you one of the eternal optimists?
Meng Song: No, especially not after the team gave Dawson Knox a 3-year, $20M deal and traded a 2nd round pick for receiver DJ Moore. With Joe Brady likely to continue favoring a balanced run/pass approach, I don't see Kincaid getting the volume needed to be a fantasy TE1 unless he enjoys positive touchdown variance. Even then, Allen seems to have more red-zone chemistry with Knox.
Maurile Tremblay: I'm cautiously optimistic, but I wouldn't call myself an eternal optimist on Kincaid. The 2025 season was essentially a lost year for a fair evaluation. He played through a torn PCL and hamstring issues, appeared in only 12 games, and never topped 50% of offensive snaps after Week 5. Finishing as TE18 in half-PPR under those circumstances doesn't tell us much about his talent ceiling. What is interesting is that even in limited action, he set career highs in yards per reception (14.6) and touchdowns (five), and then exploded in the playoffs with nine catches for 111 yards and two scores across two games. Joe Brady's scheme leans heavily into 12 and 13 personnel, and without a true number-one wide receiver on the roster, the tight end group accounted for 12 touchdowns in 2025. The opportunity for a Kincaid breakout is real. The Dawson Knox extension through 2028 is significant, however. Knox is a legitimate dual-threat as a blocker and receiver, so the targets will be shared. A healthy Kincaid probably flirts with TE1 territory in 2026, somewhere in the TE8-TE14 range.
Jeff Haseley: I'm still an optimist, but I also know when to be cautious. His 2025 was hampered by a nagging knee injury, leading to inconsistencies throughout the year. It's all about being healthy when I look at his outlook for 2026. I'd put him in the high-end TE2 range rather than a bona fide top-10 threat.
VERDICT: He's a low-end TE1 if the touchdown variance goes his way.
I currently project Kincaid at TE14, but very little separates TE10 through TE16 in my projections. A single touchdown catch, or lack thereof, would be enough to push any of those players in or out of the year-end top 12. I agree with my peers that Dawson Knox is there to block first, but he is also an undeniable red zone threat. With the addition of DJ Moore, I fail to see how Kincaid earns the target share that correlates to a difference-making fantasy starter. As long as you’re not counting on Kincaid to break through and finish in the top 8 this year, you should be fine.
