We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Dallas Cowboys Coin-Toss Questions:
- Will Dallas add a legitimate competitor for Javonte Williams in the draft?
- Who is the logical handcuff: Malik Davis, Jaydon Blue, or Phil Mafah?
- Who do you rank higher: CeeDee Lamb or George Pickens?
- Do you see both Lamb and Pickens as Top-24 fantasy receivers?
Q: Javonte Williams finished as RB12 last year and was rewarded with a 3-year, $24 million extension. Do you expect Dallas to add a legitimate competitor for touches in the April draft?
Maurile Tremblay: I wouldn't expect the Cowboys to use significant draft capital on a running back this April. Williams earned his extension off a 1,201-yard, 11-touchdown season at 4.8 yards per carry, and the team is treating him as the clear number-one option heading into 2026. It would be unusual for a front office to sign Williams to that kind of extension and then immediately draft a high-round back to compete for the same touches. That said, a late-round flier or undrafted free agent to bolster depth wouldn't be surprising, given how thin the depth chart looks behind Williams.
Jeff Haseley: Probably not. My assumption is that Dallas addressed their issue at running back with the contract to Williams. If they make another move, it will likely be an in-case-of-emergency-break-glass type of back, someone who has been around the block and will provide depth when needed. Dallas could also target a running back in the draft who could be developed.
Meng Song: It's possible the Cowboys could draft another running back, but that would likely be more of an indictment on Jaydon Blue and Malik Davis. Williams projects as the clear lead back considering his 2025 performance and recent contract.
Andy Hicks: No. At best, the Cowboys will use a pick on a late-round selection like Jaydon Blue last year, unless a superstar prospect lands in their lap. Despite five years of NFL experience, Williams has yet to turn 25 and was lightly used due to a devastating knee injury in 2022. Williams showed plenty of promise after being drafted by the Broncos in 2021, but it wasn't until his move to the Cowboys four years later that his talent was truly realized. I'm confident Williams will live up to the expectations that come with his new contract.
VERDICT: The Cowboys are committed to Williams this season.
There is not much disagreement here. If Dallas adds a rookie tailback, it is more about trying to bolster the depth behind Williams than adding a threat to his role. Williams always had the talent to be a fantasy star, but his early-career injuries in Denver threatened to derail his career before it really got off the ground. Fortunately, he bet on himself last year, and it paid off financially and in the fantasy standings. Williams is a high-volume, multifaceted player in a top-5 offense for as long as he is healthy.
Q: If the Cowboys don't draft another running back, who do you see as the logical handcuff: Malik Davis, Jaydon Blue, or Phil Mafah?
Maurile Tremblay: Jaydon Blue looks like the most logical handcuff of the three. Blue at least got on the field in five games as a rookie, albeit in a limited role. He's had a year in the system now and would be the natural candidate to step into a larger role if Williams missed time. That said, don't sleep on fullback Hunter Luepke as a potential touch-absorber if Williams misses time. He's not a traditional handcuff in a fantasy sense, but in real football terms, he could soak up some of the short-yardage and pass-protection work while Blue handles early-down carries.
Jeff Haseley: My gut says Blue would be the handcuff.
Meng Song: I don't think there's a true handcuff in Dallas. This backfield would likely be led by Davis if Williams were to miss time, but at the head of a messy committee.
Andy Hicks: Both Davis and Blue were productive when used in Week 18, but it was against the struggling Giants. Davis has been with the Cowboys for four years, mainly on the practice squad. Still being with the team through multiple coaches indicates he has value, though I wouldn't label him a handcuff. He's simply the most likely next man up at this stage. Blue had some believing he could threaten for playing time with a strong start to training camp, and he needs to replicate that to maintain his role. This team has produced surprise starters in recent years, including Rico Dowdle, and if Williams goes down, a name not mentioned could leapfrog everyone. I would have little confidence that Davis, Blue, or Mafah offer anything of long-term value to fantasy managers.
VERDICT: Davis gets the nod, but it's a low-confidence projection.
I’ve seen Davis be more effective than the other backs on the roster, but my colleagues are right to acknowledge Blue’s draft pedigree. That likely still factors into the organization’s calculus. For now, I have Davis second on the team with 80 carries, while Blue slots in at 40 carries. It wouldn’t take more than a few weeks of training camp reports supporting Blue to have me shift my model.
