Week 6 DFS feels much less chaotic than the past couple of weeks. We aren't waiting on a bunch of key injury news that has major impacts on percent rostered projections and overall strategy, because the big news has already landed. Jeremiyah Love, Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Theo Johnson, and Jalen Hurts are all out (Tanner McKee starts for the Eagles), while Ladd McConkey, DeVonta Smith, and Jalen Coker carry no injury designation, and A.J. Brown is trending toward playing in his first game back from injured reserve.
A few situations remain worth watching, but in most cases we either have a pretty good idea of what will happen or the impact on the slate will be fairly small. DJ Moore seems to be trending toward missing another week. He wore a non-contact jersey on Friday, the same practice-participation cadence that led to Moore missing last week, yet he is still projected at 11.5 percent rostered. One of the Buffalo pass catchers will likely have a nice game against the Raiders, but it is hard to confidently pinpoint which one. My projections lean toward Keon Coleman, who lands in 11.9 percent of the optimal lineups against just 1.3 percent rostered with Moore out. In New England, TreVeyon Henderson has still not been ruled out and is listed as questionable, but it is hard to believe he would miss no time with what was reported as a high-ankle sprain. If he sits, Rhamondre Stevenson is the lead back for a Patriots team favored by 7.5 points, and he lands in 19.9 percent of the optimal lineups against 12.3 percent rostered, the biggest gap among running backs on the slate.
In Pittsburgh, DK Metcalf is listed as questionable after missing Friday's practice with an illness. I'm expecting him to play, and I hope he does, as his absence might lead to Germie Bernard (one of my favorite plays of the week) shooting way up in percent rostered. I actually think Metcalf's presence could help Bernard, so there are multiple reasons to hope he is in. Tyler Warren is legitimately questionable after suffering a groin injury in Friday's practice, but I was not especially excited about playing him (10.3 percent rostered against 4.7 percent optimal), and I don't think his absence would have a major cascade effect on the Colts' offense. Caleb Williams is questionable as well after missing the last three games with a hamstring tear, but he practiced in full all week, and my projection has him starting in Atlanta, which is good news for D'Andre Swift and Luther Burden III.
My fantasy point projections are built on a simulation of every game on the slate run ten thousand times. The simulation also solves the best possible FanDuel lineup in each of those ten thousand worlds, and how often a player lands in that best lineup is his optimal percentage. For tournaments, what matters is how that number compares to our percent rostered projections. When the field is on a player far more often than he shows up in the optimal lineups, he is over-rostered relative to what the numbers say and not a great play, and when the reverse is true, he is a leverage play and someone I want in my GPP lineups.
At each position, I will show you which players are expected to be the most popular (the chalk), with the ones I think are worth going heavy on at that elevated percent rostered marked as good chalk, and then a list of other targets who are flying a little further under the radar. Most of those targets are players my process likes more than the field does, but this week I have also included a couple of players I like more than my own projections do, and I will say so when that is the case.
Slate Overview
The table below gives a big-picture view of the slate. It shows each team's implied total and how it compares to my season projection for that offense, along with two numbers that frame everything that follows. The first is how often that team's players show up in the optimal lineups across the ten thousand simulations, and the second is how often we project them to show up on the field's rosters. When a team's players fill more of the optimal lineups than the field is projected to roster them, our competition is probably overlooking that offense, and when the reverse is true, the field is going too hard.
This week's main slate has 10 games, and three of them stand out from the rest, with Buffalo at Las Vegas (53.5), Chicago at Atlanta (52.5) and Arizona at the Rams (51.5) all carrying totals at least five points higher than any other game. The Rams have the highest implied total on the board at 32 points, while the Chargers have the lowest at 17 points in Kansas City.
Los Angeles Rams, 32.0, vs. Arizona Cardinals, 19.5
The Rams are a 12.5-point home favorite, and their 32-point implied total is 14 percent above my season number for Los Angeles. Arizona's defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the fourth-most to wide receivers, so it is no surprise that the field is all over this offense. Rams players fill about 94 percent of the field's projected roster spots, close to one Ram per lineup on average, but they also fill about 91 percent of the optimal lineups, so the field and the simulation are in roughly the same place. Puka Nacua is the most popular receiver on the slate at 32.6 percent rostered, and he also lands in more optimal lineups than any other player at 26.3 percent, while Matthew Stafford (16.2 percent optimal against 14.9 percent rostered) and Davante Adams (15.5 against 13.5) are both a little under-rostered. The one risk with this game is the spread, because a big favorite can take its foot off the gas in the second half, which is part of why my projection has Stafford at about 35 pass attempts after he threw 51 or more in each of the last three games. On the Arizona side, the field is a bit heavier than the simulation (39 percent of roster spots against 33 percent of the optimal lineups), mostly because of Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, and McBride gets the toughest possible matchup against a Rams defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. The biggest challenge on this slate is that we all have a pretty good idea of who the best plays are (like the guy who saw 24 targets last week and is facing a terrible pass defense), and there are not a lot of great pivot options off of the top plays.
Atlanta Falcons, 25.5, vs. Chicago Bears, 27.0
Atlanta is the offense the field is leaning on the hardest. Falcons players fill 79 percent of the field's projected roster spots against 61 percent of the optimal lineups, an 18-point gap that is the widest on the slate, and most of it comes from Bijan Robinson, who is projected to be the most popular player on the slate at 33.4 percent rostered against 19.2 percent optimal, and Michael Penix Jr. (11.7 percent rostered against 5.3 percent optimal). Even though the numbers don't love him as mega-chalk, it is hard to fade Robinson when he has been playing out of his mind (580 rushing yards and five total touchdowns through five games). Drake London is also chalk at 27.3 percent rostered, but he lands in 23.5 percent of the optimal lineups, and he is the Falcon I am happy to have plenty of because he is just clearly mispriced at $7,600. On the other side of this game, Bears players fill 64 percent of the optimal lineups against 59 percent of the field's roster spots, and Atlanta has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to receivers this season. Swift is good chalk, and Burden is a receiver I like more than the simulation does (more on both below).
New Orleans Saints, 24.0, at New York Giants, 22.5
New Orleans is the offense the field is overlooking the most. Saints players fill 45 percent of the optimal lineups against 32 percent of the field's projected roster spots, a 13-point gap that is the widest in our favor, and Tyler Shough (6.6 percent optimal against 3.1 percent rostered) and Chris Olave (14.3 against 10.0) account for most of it. This is such an obviously solid stack this week, and I suspect it will go a bit overlooked because of how much this offense struggled last week. But maybe we should just ignore the results of last week's game against a blitz-heavy Vikings defense that is giving every opponent problems. Minnesota has blitzed on about 70 percent of opposing dropbacks this season, by far the most in the league, and it has allowed the fewest points (12.8 per game) and the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. The Giants are an interesting part of this game as well, with a 22.5 implied total, and Theo Johnson's absence should funnel even more targets to Isaiah Likely, who has drawn 25 targets over the last two games.
New England Patriots, 25.5, vs. New York Jets, 18.0
New England is the other offense the field is underweight on. Patriots players fill 56 percent of the optimal lineups against 45 percent of the field's projected roster spots. Stevenson accounts for most of that gap (maybe my favorite play on the slate), with Drake Maye (10.1 percent optimal against 7.1 percent rostered) and Brown (8.8 against 3.8) making up most of the rest. Maye threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns against Las Vegas last week, and Brown is in line to play for the first time since Week 1.
Las Vegas Raiders, 24.5, vs. Buffalo Bills, 29.0
After Atlanta, Las Vegas is the offense the field is most overweight on. Raiders players fill 61 percent of the field's projected roster spots against 50 percent of the optimal lineups, with Ashton Jeanty (18.7 percent rostered against 13.3 percent optimal), Brock Bowers (20.0 against 16.1), and Kirk Cousins (7.5 against 5.1) all a little over-rostered. I am still happy to be with the field on Bowers, as I will explain in the tight end section.
Quarterbacks
Stafford is projected to be the most popular quarterback at 14.9 percent rostered, with Josh Allen right behind him at 14.1 percent, and both are good chalk this week. Penix is the quarterback I would be most underweight on at 11.7 percent rostered against 5.3 percent optimal. He has thrown for one touchdown in each of his three games this season (256, 223, and 240 yards), and Atlanta's offense runs through Robinson and London, so pairing those two may be the way to stack the Falcons instead of the typical QB-WR stack. Cousins (7.5 percent rostered against 5.1 percent optimal) and Daniel Jones (6.7 against 3.9) are the other chalk quarterbacks I would go under the field on, while Williams is priced about right at 9.9 percent rostered and 10 percent optimal. I do wonder if Maye and Williams come in slightly lower than projected, and we may see Stafford and Allen come in at 20 percent or more in many tournaments.
Matthew Stafford, Rams, $7,800
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