DFS First Look: Week 6

DFS First Look is back for Week 6. As a reminder, every projection in this article is my own, and those projections come from a simulation of every game on the slate run 10,000 times. The optimal column in each table shows how often a player landed in the best possible DFS lineup under the salary cap across those sims. For GPPs, comparing these optimal percentages to our percent-rostered projections (assembled by Devin Knotts later in the week) is one of the best ways to find players who are overvalued or undervalued for the week.

When a player's chance of playing is below 95 percent in my model, it shows that percentage under his name. Keep in mind, this article is a snapshot taken on Wednesday morning, before the first official practice reports of the week. Injury news that comes out after this goes live will change the projections, which changes the sims and can shuffle the top plays for both cash and GPP. It's a major known limitation of doing an article like this early in the week, but I love getting started early and trying to suss out the potential top plays before a consensus forms. Also, making these injury assumptions and dealing with their fallout is a key part of building winning DFS lineups, so getting started early, following the injury news, and making adjustments along the way is a good process.

The injury assumptions that matter most for this week's early projections start at quarterback, where I have Lamar Jackson (ankle) at 60 percent to play, Caleb Williams (hamstring) at 65 percent, and Michael Penix Jr. (ribs) at 70 percent. So, for the purposes of this article and the sims and projections it is built off of, we are assuming those three key QBs are in. At running back, Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and Breece Hall (quad) are at 45 percent, and Kyle Monangai (toe) is at 40 percent, so all three sit in the early sims. I think each is a close call, and I wouldn't be shocked if any of the three play. But it's Wednesday morning, and I have to make calls on some of these toss-up injury situations to the best of my abilities. On the other end of the spectrum, I am currently projecting Quinshon Judkins (ankle) to play, with Raheim Sanders (hip) now on injured reserve. At receiver, DJ Moore (shoulder) is at 40 percent, Ladd McConkey (foot) at 45 percent, and A.J. Brown (ankle) at 35 percent in his first week of eligibility to come off injured reserve, so all three are out, while DeVonta Smith (hamstring), Rashee Rice (hamstring), and KC Concepcion Jr. (concussion) are each at 55 percent and in. 

Each of these injuries matters for the slate, but two of them have a real impact on the cash game optimals. With Monangai out, D'Andre Swift projects for 19.1 DraftKings points at $6,700 and is in all ten of the top FanDuel cash game candidate lineups. If Monangai plays, Swift drops to about 14 points and falls out of all ten, with Dameon Pierce taking his place in seven of them (though that is also dependent on injury news), so Monangai's status is the one I will be watching most closely this week. Concepcion is the other. Since he is still in the protocol, I have him playing only about half his usual role, which takes him out of the cash lineups and makes Harold Fannin Jr. a top cash game option (Fannin is in all ten of the top DraftKings cash lineups). On the other hand, Concepcion himself is very cheap at $4,200, and if we get an indication that he will be full-go for the slate, he becomes one of the go-to salary-saving options for cash lineups.

Slate Overview

The slate overview is built around implied team totals and how each one compares to that team's average implied total for the full season (based on my estimated lines for future weeks), plus my Matchup Rating for each position, which is my best guess at how much this week's opponent will help or hurt that position. A rating of +10% means players at that position should score about 10 percent more than usual. It blends this season's games with last season's and the betting lines, and it trusts this season's results a little more each week. The DST column rates the offense each defense is facing.

The main slate is 10 games, with Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, and Minnesota on bye. It is somewhat refreshing not having Jahmyr Gibbs on the main slate. He's ended up being an optimal play for both GPPs and cash every main slate appearance. Seattle at Denver is Thursday night, Houston and Jacksonville play in London at 9:30 a.m., Dallas at Green Bay is the Sunday night game, and Washington at San Francisco is Monday night. Going from 13 games in Week 3 to 10 this week helps narrow down our options. 

Two games sit well above the rest of the slate and will be key to strategy. Buffalo at Las Vegas has the highest total at 53.5, and Arizona at the Rams is at 51.5. Chicago at Atlanta (49.5) is the only other game above 46. Both of the top games kick off in the late afternoon window, along with the Chargers at Kansas City, which will make late-swap strategy a major key to success this week. There are going to be some very chalky options from the Cardinals-Rams matchup. If your lineup isn't looking great by around 3:30 or 4:00 Eastern time, pivoting off of chalkier plays to try to come from behind is a good strategy in all formats. 

The Rams top the board at 32.0 implied points as a 12.5-point home favorite over Arizona. Matthew Stafford threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns in the overtime loss to Buffalo, and Puka Nacua caught 17 of his 24 targets for 138 yards and a score. Both look like the top options at their positions. Arizona has allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to quarterbacks (23.2 per game), and my Matchup Rating has Stafford 9 percent better than usual and the Rams tight ends 15 percent better, the best tight end matchup on the slate. In an alternate universe where we are allowed to have nice things, Jeff Bell, me, and the others who drafted a ton of Terrance Ferguson would be very excited for this matchup. The one concern is the offensive line, since left tackle Alaric Jackson was suspended two games on Tuesday for a postgame punch (Sean McVay expects him to appeal).

Arizona (19.5) is the other half of that game, but the matchup is a tough one for Trey McBride. The Rams have allowed the fewest points in the league to tight ends (6.4 per game), and my Matchup Rating has McBride 7 percent worse than usual. Marvin Harrison Jr. was traded to Houston on Monday, which should leave a few more targets for Michael Wilson.

Buffalo (29.5) is a 5.5-point road favorite in Las Vegas. Josh Allen has at least one rushing touchdown in all five games (eight in total), and he ran for 121 yards on 10 carries on Monday night. James Cook III has 95 of the Bills' 101 running back carries, although Joe Brady said Tuesday that Cook's fumbling has to improve or his carries could go down. DJ Moore (shoulder) is truly questionable again this week, and in the snaps Moore has missed this season, Keon Coleman has seen 41 percent of the Bills' air yards. I don't love playing Bills pass catchers due to their high variance in usage. But if you get off to a slow start this week, pivoting off of Stafford-Nacua could be a necessity, and something like Allen-Coleman (plus an upgrade at another position) could be in play.

Las Vegas (24.0) is 11 percent above its season average for this game. Buffalo has allowed the most DraftKings points in the league to receivers (46.3 per game) and the third-most to quarterbacks and running backs, but my Matchup Rating is less excited, with the Raiders receivers only 3 percent better than usual. Brock Bowers has a touchdown in all three of his games and caught eight of 10 targets for 110 yards last week.

Chicago (26.25) is a 3-point road favorite in Atlanta, with Caleb Williams seeming more likely than not to return from the hamstring injury that has kept him out since Week 2 (the Bears started Case Keenum and Tyson Bagent in his place). With Kyle Monangai (toe) potentially on the doubtful side of questionable, D'Andre Swift should lead the backfield, and my Matchup Rating has the Chicago receivers 5 percent better than usual. On the other side, Atlanta (23.25) gets a Bears defense that will be without Montez Sweat, who was suspended two games for violating the league's PED policy, and Drake London has 408 receiving yards over his last three games.

Indianapolis (25.75) is a 7-point home favorite over winless Tennessee and 10 percent above its season average. My Matchup Rating has the Colts receivers 6 percent better than usual, and the Colts defense has the best matchup of the week for a defense (32 percent better than usual) against a Titans offense with an 18.75 implied total.

New England (25.5) is a 7.5-point home favorite over the Jets after Drake Maye threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns against Las Vegas. With TreVeyon Henderson out for multiple weeks with a high ankle sprain, Rhamondre Stevenson should handle most of the backfield work, and he was already the main passing-down and goal-line back when both were healthy. 

Kansas City (25.5) comes off its bye as an 8.5-point home favorite over the winless Chargers, whose 17.0 implied total is the lowest on the slate. Ken Walker III has averaged 134 rushing yards per game, and the Chiefs defense rates 16 percent better than usual in my Matchup Rating. The game script is very much in Walker's favor.

DraftKings

Quarterbacks