Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the season -- and into the offseason.
Not For Long
Back in the late 1980s, Jerry Glanville coined the famous phrase "NFL means 'not for long'" while head coach of the Houston Oilers. Glanville used it to admonish an official after a call he disagreed with. But the phrase has taken on a life of its own since, because it's true.
In fact, it might be more true now than it was then.
Week-to-week developments, variance, and volatility drive the game we love. For the NFL, change isn't a bug; it's a feature.
Real-Time Examples
I'm old enough to remember when expectations for the Philadelphia Eagles were sky-high, with many viewing them as Super Bowl contenders and heavy favorites to win the NFC East for a third consecutive year.
That was a month ago.
This week, the Eagles head to London to face the Jaguars, sitting at 2-2 with a multitude of sudden difficulties.
It's not just the injuries to key skill players like Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. It's also future Hall of Fame offensive tackle Lane Johnson suddenly and surprisingly retiring on Monday. It's starting center Cam Jurgens suddenly and surprisingly being traded to the Ravens on Wednesday.
In what seems like an instant, Philadelphia has gone from pushing for another championship to acting like a dynasty league team that's decided it's time to rebuild.
That's the NFL in a microcosm.
But fantasy investors already know this. We see it in the individual ups and downs of players we're counting on, would like to count on, or previously never considered counting on. The sudden spikes that draw us in. The disappearing acts that happen at the most unexpected times.
Getting a handle on what's real and what's a mirage can be tough.
Last week, we looked at players falling short of expectations in an effort to figure out who was likely to rebound and who was not. This week, we'll look at the other side of the coin: players outperforming expectations.
And like we did last week, we'll try to figure out what's the new normal and what's not for long.
Proof of Concept
Ken Walker III has obviously been a major piece of Kansas City's offense since signing with the team as a free agent this offseason.
But his performance in last Sunday's win has catapulted his 2026 season into the realm of downright historic.
According to NFL Research, Walker became just the third player in NFL history to rush for at least 170 yards twice within his team's first four games. The other two players to accomplish the feat are Hall of Famers Jim Brown and O.J. Simpson.
Notably, Brown (1958 and 1963) and Simpson (1973 and 1975) both did it twice.
As for Walker, he put up 173 yards rushing in the Week 1 win over Denver and had 179 yards rushing in Sunday's victory over the Raiders. He also had the league's longest run of the year so far with his 76-yarder in the second half.
Per Next Gen Stats, Walker hit 21.21 mph on that run, the sixth-fastest speed this year.
Walker leads the NFL with 537 yards rushing, 6.2 yards per carry, and 621 total yards from scrimmage.
While he isn't No. 1 in carries, he's close. Baltimore's Derrick Henry has 89, while Walker has 87.
With 30.9 PPR points against the Raiders, Walker's four-game average sits at 27.5 points per game. He's outperforming expectations, which were relatively high heading into the season (he was drafted as RB10).
The Chiefs have a Week 5 bye, and Walker heads into the off week as RB2 overall.
Real or Mirage?
This is the easy question. Walker's role is real. He's proving to be exactly the kind of effective, explosive ball carrier the Chiefs expected when they signed him in March -- except even better. There's no questioning the workload at this point.
The only real question is whether it's sustainable over the course of the season. And the answer to that won't be known until after the fact. In the meantime, fantasy managers should continue to expect high-end opportunities and outcomes on a weekly basis.
Meet the New Boss?
When the Bears got a dominant showing from the running back duo of D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, it was no surprise. The two combined for 204 of the team's 232 rushing yards in Sunday's win over the Jets.
We saw a similar output against the Panthers in Week 1.
In that game, Swift, who received a $33.75 million contract extension just days before the opener, paid immediate dividends for the Bears, rushing for 124 yards on 18 carries with three touchdowns. Monangai had 100 yards on the ground, including a 61-yard touchdown burst in the second half.
But the roles were reversed in this one as Monangai ran a career-high 30 times for 146 yards and two touchdowns, while Swift had 15 carries for 58 yards and lost a fumble.
Monangai became the third different Bears player with multiple rushing touchdowns in a game this season. On an afternoon when Swift couldn't punch the ball in twice from inside the 3-yard line and later fumbled, Chicago needed everything it got from Monangai to break through on offense.
As Pro Football Focus' Nathan Jahnke noted, Chicago's usual rotation has Swift at 64 percent of snaps and Monangai at 35 percent, with Swift leading in all situations. Over the first six drives on Sunday, that narrowed to 61 to 39 percent on 54 plays.
Then Swift fumbled to start the third quarter.
The Jets cut it to a one-score game with a field goal, and that was the last we saw of him. Over the final three drives (39 plays), Monangai played 29 snaps to Roschon Johnson's 10 and ran 18 times to Johnson's four.
Under the usual rotation, Jahnke noted, Swift likely sees 10-plus more carries.
Real or Mirage?
SI.com's Mike Moraitis believes Swift needs to get himself back on track or else he might be in an even 50/50 split with Monangai moving forward, or worse.
I agree.
As long as Swift doesn't fumble again anytime soon, the running back rotation is unlikely to change materially. I'll continue to play Swift as an RB2 and Monangai as a flex-level play with obvious upside.
But if Swift fumbles again? All bets are off.
Too Touchdown Dependent?
Cowboys running back Javonte Williams finished as the week's RB2 in PPR scoring behind Kyren Williams, with three rushing TDs in Dallas' comeback against Houston.
Along with his three trips to the end zone, Williams also added 83 yards total (62 on the ground, 21 through the air).
In PPR formats, Williams earned 31.3 points.
As FanSided's Nick Delahanty suggested, Williams is another reminder of how important the fit is for a player's success. After falling out of favor with the Broncos, all Williams needed was a new team that would showcase his talents. Mission accomplished.
Twenty games into his time with the Cowboys, Williams has scored 19 touchdowns. It's pretty safe to say that both sides are glad this pairing occurred.
Fantasy managers would agree.
Real or Mirage?
Nobody expects three touchdowns a week, but the role is real, and that outcome is possible any given Sunday in an offense as prolific as the Cowboys'.
After all, Williams has six touchdowns in the first four games of the season.
He is currently the RB7 overall and has three top-10 finishes over the first four weeks. There's no reason to believe the role will change, and barring the unforeseen, there's no other back on the roster who's going to cut into it.