The college football committee released its penultimate rankings heading into championship weekend. The rankings are a great reminder of the limited opportunities we get to use “penultimate”, a requirement across the industry when writing about this rankings release.
The Playoff Picture
- Ohio State (12-0)*
- Indiana (11-0)*
- Georgia (11-1)*
- Texas Tech (11-1)*
- Oregon (11-1)*
- Ole Miss (11-1)
- Texas A&M (11-1)
- Oklahoma (10-2)
- Alabama (10-2)*
- Notre Dame (10-2)*
- BYU (11-1)*
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Miami (10-2)
- Texas (9-3)
- Vanderbilt (10-2)
- Utah (10-2)
- USC (9-3)
- Virginia (10-2)*
- Arizona (9-3)
- Michigan (9-3)
- Tulane (10-2)*
- Houston (9-3)
- Georgia Tech (9-3)
- Iowa (8-4)
- North Texas (11-1)*
- James Madison (11-1)*
Major Takeaways
Indicates teams who could move*
Texas and Vanderbilt are out. Everyone above Oklahoma is safe. That is the easy part. Texas can claim they would be in if they had not scheduled Ohio St., though Notre Dame could make the same claim if they did not schedule Texas A&M. A loss to Florida and a 25-point loss to Georgia two weeks ago are likely doing more damage than a seven-point loss to the #1 team in Week 1. In reality, Texas has looked like anything but a playoff team in those three losses and close wins over bottom-feeders Kentucky and Mississippi St.
Starting from the bottom, like any rational person. The 11th and 12th seeds look easy to project. Virginia is in the 11th spot with a win and an ACC title. The Tulane vs. North Texas winner in the AAC Championship is in. Duke winning the ACC is where things get sticky, though James Madison’s rank at 25th and Duke not appearing in the rankings would suggest the AAC champion would be 11th, and James Madison is 12th with a Sun Belt title win. The AAC and Sun Belt having representation while the ACC is excluded would be a nightmare scenario for the ACC, which saw 13-0 Florida St. excluded from the final four-team playoff just two seasons ago. James Madison is a 23.5-point favorite against Troy, so an upset is unlikely, but the Dukes losing in the Sun Belt would likely put ACC champion Duke into the field, as there is no other team left standing.
The 11th and 12th spots are earmarked for Virginia, Tulane, North Texas, James Madison, or Duke, meaning they will not steal a bid (though plenty will say they already have).
BYU could be a thief. They hold the 11th spot, which projects them out of the field, but a win against Texas Tech would clinch a berth. Ranked fourth, Texas Tech is almost surely safe from falling out completely. Currently, Notre Dame is projected to be out in that scenario.
The outrage spiral of a playoff field that includes BYU, James Madison, and North Texas while excluding Notre Dame, Miami, and Texas would be peak schadenfreude.
Alabama jumped Notre Dame in this rankings release, a significant clue as to the approach this weekend. The insinuation is that Alabama is safe even if it loses the SEC Championship in a rematch of a game they won earlier against Georgia. There are always scenarios that could play out in games, but it would likely take a blowout and an injury to quarterback Ty Simpson to push the Crimson Tide out.
Miami’s only bit of hope would rest on a BYU loss combined with the wheels falling off for Alabama. The committee has consistently ranked Notre Dame ahead of Miami and danced around the issue of Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame. The committee’s preferred outcome would likely see BYU take the spot to knock out Notre Dame, or events around Alabama that push both Notre Dame and Miami in. The ACC’s fury over a scenario that would see them excluded, with James Madison taking the 12th spot ahead of Duke and Notre Dame ahead of Miami, would be unprecedented.
The handling of the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 title game losers will be watched closely. Last year, the committee essentially ignored the impact of losers in those games, with SMU claiming the final at-large spot over Alabama. This year, Alabama would stand to benefit from that treatment. There are already questions about playing these games: the Big Ten teams could claim the Top 2 spots are locked if they did not play, Texas Tech could lose a bye, and Alabama could fall out. The Big Ten loser could fall no further than third if Georgia wins the SEC. Georgia would fall no lower than fourth with a loss. Alabama should be safe in the tenth spot with a BYU win under the SMU scenario. BYU would be out of the field regardless. Texas Tech falling to fifth is a scenario to watch, potentially giving the Big Ten three of the four byes, though Alabama making a considerable jump up with an SEC title can not be ruled out.
Using the favorites for the conference championship games, the final bracket should look something like this:
If things go sideways, the Peak Chaos Bracket could shape up like this:
The Big Board
We are rolling on the Footballguys Rookie Guide, and in-depth profiles for all 2026 draft prospects will follow. Currently, we need to see what players comprise the 2026 class and who decides to return to school. The current board, as we close the regular season:
