We are proud to be among the first, if not the first, to publish full projections for the upcoming season, going live just days after the Super Bowl. Publishing detailed projections in early February comes with trade-offs, not the least of which is a near-total lack of clarity on how free agency, cap transactions, and the NFL draft will reshape rosters.
We've been updating our projections in near real time, including during the recent onslaught of free-agent transactions. This version will remain largely stable until we can layer in the April NFL draft, but stable projections don't mean settled debates.
We have a staff of sharp analysts with sharp takes of their own, so I thought it would be worthwhile to solicit their views on the key coin-toss situations that will shape each team's outlook in the coming months. These are important questions where reasonable, informed people can credibly land in very different places. I asked my colleagues to weigh in with one assumption: they were answering strictly through the lens of a standard 0.5-PPR redraft league.
Pittsburgh Steelers Coin-Toss Questions:
- Do you expect Aaron Rodgers to be the Steelers' starter?
- If Rodgers doesn't return, veteran or rookie?
- How many pass attempts do you expect in Pittsburgh this year?
- How do you project the Warren/Dowdle split?
- Who do you rank higher: Pittman or Metcalf?
Q: Do you expect Aaron Rodgers to be the Steelers' starting quarterback this season?
Maurile Tremblay: He'll either return to Pittsburgh or retire. Rodgers was knocked out of the playoffs with a dismal performance against Houston, and I don't think that's the note he wants to end on. So I'm guessing he'll come back. He's reportedly stayed in regular contact with new head coach Mike McCarthy (whom he played for in Green Bay for 13 seasons), and seems engaged with the team rather than checked out.
Jeff Haseley: All signs point to yes, assuming he doesn't retire before the draft. Mike McCarthy and Rodgers have been talking regularly, and the reunion story is too strong to ignore. I fully believe the decision to hire McCarthy was to persuade Rodgers to stay for one more year.
Meng Song: Yes, they've made no moves at quarterback, and it's the only way the hiring of Mike McCarthy and trade for Michael Pittman Jr make sense. Those were not "we're looking to help Will Howard develop" moves.
Andy Hicks: It seems more likely than not that Rodgers will be back and reunited with Mike McCarthy. Turning 43 late in the season does not promise fantasy success. He looked like a capable game manager last season, but hardly the dynamic threat of seasons gone by.
VERDICT: Yes, Rodgers will be the starting quarterback again in 2026.
I don’t think this is a particularly controversial take, and ownership believes Rodgers will give them a decision before the April draft. If that timeline is accurate, it will be easy for fantasy managers to properly model the Steelers' offense in either direction. Rodgers was basically his usual self in 2025, and he certainly understands all the intricacies of what new head coach Mike McCarthy wants to do offensively.
Q: If Rodgers does not re-sign, do you expect the team to bring in another veteran or go with a rookie?
Maurile Tremblay: Will Howard would be the primary internal option, not a rookie draft pick. McCarthy holds Howard in high regard. That said, the Steelers wouldn't simply hand Howard the job unchallenged. If Rodgers departs, the organization would likely bring in a mid-round draft pick or sign a free agent to compete. But I'd expect Howard to get the first shot at the starting role.
Jeff Haseley: If Rodgers walks, I expect them to bring in another vet — think a Ryan Tannehill type — to compete with their 2025 rookie Will Howard. Someone like the Eagles' Tanner McKee would be an intriguing dark horse.
Meng Song: If somehow Rodgers isn't on the roster come August, I'd expect Will Howard to battle a mid-round rookie.
Andy Hicks: If, for some reason, Rodgers has had enough, the team may opt for long-term backup Mason Rudolph, go to the draft, or try their luck with another veteran. A rookie would be unlikely, given the weak draft class.
VERDICT: I wouldn't rule out another veteran.
My peers all seem to think it will be Will Howard and a rookie battling it out for the starting gig if Rodgers retires. I am not sure I see it that way. If Rodgers keeps his promise and lets the team know before the April draft, I expect the Steelers would consider a rookie only if he lines up properly on their draft board. They will not force the situation.
Regardless of whether they draft a rookie, I fully expect the team to investigate veteran options. This could include Derek Carr, who is reportedly considering a comeback, or Jimmy Garoppolo.
