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Drafting in a Vacuum: Calibrating My RB Projections Against Consensus
Going live with projections in early February means operating in a vacuum, with no industry benchmarks for comparison. While it is thrilling to be among the first to put our analysis out there, it also means accepting that initial projections will naturally deviate from the eventual market consensus.
Needless to say, my rankings have evolved significantly over the last few months as coaching changes, free agency, and the NFL draft altered the landscape. Now that the rest of the industry is finally launching their projections, it's the perfect time to stack my numbers against the broader market consensus and highlight the biggest discrepancies.
My goal isn't to stand out from the crowd just for the sake of it, but to ensure every deviation is intentional. That intentionality is where you find your edge; it's where you can optimize your drafts while your leaguemates blindly trust site ADPs and generic cheat sheets.
Key Running Back Differences
| My Rank | Player | Team | Industry Rank | ADP | Average | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Omarion Hampton | LAC | 10 | 8 | 9.0 | 2.0 |
| 10 | Saquon Barkley | PHI | 8 | 7 | 7.5 | (2.5) |
| 17 | Jeremiyah Love | ARI | 13 | 13 | 13.0 | (4.0) |
| 14 | Josh Jacobs | GB | 16 | 18 | 17.0 | 3.0 |
| 22 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | 26 | 28 | 27.0 | 5.0 |
| 24 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 28 | 29 | 28.5 | 4.5 |
| 42 | Jonathon Brooks | CAR | 42 | 36 | 39.0 | (3.0) |
| 26 | TreVeyon Henderson | NE | 23 | 22 | 22.5 | (3.5) |
| 27 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | 30 | 30 | 30.0 | 3.0 |
| 28 | Bhayshul Tuten | JAX | 25 | 25 | 25.0 | (3.0) |
| 46 | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX | 43 | 42 | 42.5 | (3.5) |
| 31 | Jadarian Price | SEA | 27 | 26 | 26.5 | (4.5) |
| 41 | Zach Charbonnet | SEA | 44 | 49 | 46.5 | 5.5 |
| 32 | J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 35 | 35 | 35.0 | 3.0 |
| 36 | RJ Harvey | DEN | 32 | 31 | 31.5 | (4.5) |
| 44 | Isiah Pacheco | DET | 47 | 46 | 46.5 | 2.5 |
| 34 | Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN | 37 | 39 | 38.0 | 4.0 |
| 39 | Blake Corum | LAR | 34 | 33 | 33.5 | (5.5) |
| 33 | Rachaad White | WAS | 38 | 38 | 38.0 | 5.0 |
Oh-My-(Rion) Hampton
Omarion Hampton: RB7 vs. RB9.0
The Situation: I'm even more optimistic about Hampton breaking into the elite tier this year than the industry, which still safely views him as a top-10 back. The crux of my enthusiasm is four-fold. One, he's immensely talented and healthy after dealing with injuries last season. Two, Mike McDaniel is taking over the play-calling. Three, the Chargers' offensive line should be immeasurably improved. Four, the depth chart poses no legitimate threats to his workload.
Odds of Adjusting: LOW
One of the biggest head-fakes each preseason comes from beat writers talking up backup running backs, and the fantasy community gets worked up fretting a committee, driving down the projected starter's cost. I don't see myself falling for that trap when we start hearing Keaton Mitchell touts.
I've Already Changed My Mind About Saquon
Saquon Barkley: My RB10 vs. Consensus RB7.5
The Situation: If you go back and look at my projections from February, you'll see I had Barkley slotted as the RB6. I'm now at RB10, which means I would probably pass on him where most of the industry would grab him in the early second round. I wrote a detailed Player Spotlight discussing exactly what drove me to reconsider Barkley's outlook.
Odds of Adjusting: LOW
We won't know how effective OC Mannion is until September, so barring injury, the analysis I laid out in the Player Spotlight will hold.
