RELATED: See all of our 2026 Player Spotlights here
It seems impossible that Justin Herbert is entering his seventh season as the Los Angeles Chargers' starting quarterback, but that's the reality. To this point, Herbert's tenure in LA can best be described as an unfulfilled promise, for both him and the franchise. While he's been a reliable fantasy asset—delivering Top 12 finishes in five of his six seasons—the expectation that he would regularly compete for league MVP trophies alongside contemporaries like Patrick Mahomes II, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow has largely not materialized.
DON'T MISS OUT: Sign up for our free, daily newsletter here.
But hope springs eternal. The Chargers are embarking on yet another reinvention, this time under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. Can McDaniel's innovative playbook, combined with a much healthier, revamped offensive line, be enough to catapult Herbert back into the elite Top 5 conversation after spending three seasons hovering on the fringe QB1 baseline?
A Volatile Asset
Draft scouts originally perceived Justin Herbert as an athletic, toolsy prospect with the raw traits of a top-end quarterback who would need time to refine his mechanics. Instead, he blew past expectations, winning the starting job as a rookie and delivering one of the finest first-year performances in modern NFL history.
Top 10 Rookie Fantasy Quarterback Seasons (1960-Present)
| Rank | Player | Team | Year | Gms | PaYds | PaTD | INTs | RuYds | RuTD | FPTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cam Newton | CAR | 2011 | 16 | 4,051 | 21 | 17 | 706 | 14 | 424.2 |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 2024 | 17 | 3,568 | 25 | 9 | 891 | 6 | 394.5 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 2020 | 15 | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 234 | 5 | 384.2 |
| 4 | Bo Nix | DEN | 2024 | 17 | 3,775 | 29 | 12 | 430 | 4 | 359.8 |
| 5 | Robert Griffin | WAS | 2012 | 15 | 3,211 | 20 | 5 | 833 | 7 | 360.9 |
| 6 | Andrew Luck | IND | 2012 | 16 | 4,374 | 23 | 18 | 255 | 5 | 348.2 |
| 7 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 2016 | 16 | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 282 | 6 | 335.6 |
| 8 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 2019 | 16 | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 544 | 4 | 332.5 |
| 9 | Jameis Winston | TB | 2015 | 16 | 4,044 | 22 | 15 | 213 | 6 | 332.5 |
| 10 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 2023 | 15 | 4,108 | 23 | 5 | 167 | 3 | 327.1 |
That QB9 rookie-season finish led to unbridled optimism heading into 2021. While his QB8 ADP essentially priced him to simply maintain his rookie baseline, Herbert showed significant growth and finished as the overall QB3.
Top 10 Fantasy Quarterbacks, 2021
| Rank | Player | Team | Year | Gms | PaYds | PaTD | INTs | RuYds | RuTD | FPTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cam Newton | CAR | 2011 | 16 | 4,051 | 21 | 17 | 706 | 14 | 424.2 |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | 2024 | 17 | 3,568 | 25 | 9 | 891 | 6 | 394.5 |
| 3 | Justin Herbert | LAC | 2020 | 15 | 4,336 | 31 | 10 | 234 | 5 | 384.2 |
| 4 | Bo Nix | DEN | 2024 | 17 | 3,775 | 29 | 12 | 430 | 4 | 359.8 |
| 5 | Robert Griffin | WAS | 2012 | 15 | 3,211 | 20 | 5 | 833 | 7 | 360.9 |
| 6 | Andrew Luck | IND | 2012 | 16 | 4,374 | 23 | 18 | 255 | 5 | 348.2 |
| 7 | Dak Prescott | DAL | 2016 | 16 | 3,667 | 23 | 4 | 282 | 6 | 335.6 |
| 8 | Kyler Murray | ARI | 2019 | 16 | 3,722 | 20 | 12 | 544 | 4 | 332.5 |
| 9 | Jameis Winston | TB | 2015 | 16 | 4,044 | 22 | 15 | 213 | 6 | 332.5 |
| 10 | C.J. Stroud | HOU | 2023 | 15 | 4,108 | 23 | 5 | 167 | 3 | 327.1 |
Following those two incredible seasons, however, fantasy managers have spent years chasing the dragon. From 2022 through 2024, Herbert consistently failed to match his draft-day price, failing to deliver top-tier QB1 value on a per-game basis. Yet, he quietly bounced back into the Top 10 last year; a remarkable feat considering he was operating behind a completely decimated offensive line.
Herbert's Year-by-Year Fantasy Progression
| Year | ADP (QBs) | Rank | Per Game Rank | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 35 | 9 | 9 | Massive Value |
| 2021 | 8 | 3 | 3 | Big Value |
| 2022 | 3 | 8 | 16 | Disappointment |
| 2023 | 6 | 19 | 13 | Disappointment |
| 2024 | 17 | 12 | 18 | As Expected |
| 2025 | 14 | 10 | 10 | Small Value |
| 2026 | 9 | ? | ? | ??? |