The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These players will not put up stats commensurate with their draft spots, and avoiding them is another important key to a successful fantasy team. To identify these players, we asked our staff to review highly rated players and identify those who should underperform their draft position.
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Here are the players who received votes.
Jaxson Dart, New York Giants
Jason Wood: Small sample sizes are the kryptonite of fantasy football analysis. Fantasy analysts routinely cherry-pick subsets of a season to make their case, and Jaxson Dart's current ADP is 100% born of an electric eight-game stretch from Weeks 3 through 10. The rookie stepped into a talent-starved Giants lineup and played backyard ball to perfection, throwing 10 touchdowns and rushing for seven more to finish as the QB6 over that span.
But the very thing that made Dart a fantasy standout is what makes him incredibly overvalued now: his reckless nature. Dart was evaluated for head trauma five times last season, leading to two missed games in concussion protocol. That level of head trauma cannot be understated. If you think John Harbaugh and the new staff will change his ways, you have to ask what his fantasy ceiling looks like without that reckless abandon as a runner.
Add in a porous offensive line that Matt Botonti ranks 25th, plus a new play-caller in Matt Nagy, whose non-Andy Reid offenses average a 22nd-place finish, and the floor drops out. Dart is a risky, if not downright irresponsible, choice as a high-end fantasy starter.
Andy Hicks: Is Jaxson Dart's high ADP within the realm of possibility? The answer is yes. Is it likely? Absolutely not. Nine rushing touchdowns and 487 rushing yards, often in a kamikaze style, are an inspiration for fans, but scare the daylights out of his coaching staff and the medical team.
New head coach John Harbaugh worked wonders with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, but Jackson is one of the smartest runners of the ball in NFL history. Dart, not so much. Five trips for concussion evaluation in limited playing time is not going to help your fantasy team. His passing talent is in the development phase.
The return of Malik Nabers will be a major boost for Dart's development, but his first season in a second professional coaching system is still likely to bring some growing pains. His pass completion rate under pressure was a terrible 43%, and the offensive line remains a work in progress. Harbaugh is a well-credentialed head coach with an experienced staff. Overall, Dart has a wide range of outcomes in 2026. At his current ADP, exceeding them is difficult, let alone likely.
Matt Waldman: Dart proved that he can earn fantasy points with short passing, running, and off-script playmaking. Dart also proved that his passing accuracy beyond 25 yards from the pitch point is subpar. He was an inefficient and mistake-prone passer when forced to remain in the pocket under pressure.
Opposing defenses have spent the offseason compiling a book on his play and identifying ways to attack his weaknesses on film. Meanwhile, Dart loses his most reliable receiver (Wan'Dale Robinson) from last year, and Malik Nabers' game won't return to maximum potential until 2027.
The most deleterious factor for Dart is the change in offense. This will be Dart's third playbook in three years, and having two different playbooks in consecutive years as a young NFL QB is an added factor that wise NFL organizations avoid.
Projecting Dart as a low-end starter in most leagues is too rich, especially when Matthew Stafford -- a better QB in a better offense with better surrounding talent -- is not earning that value in fantasy leagues.
Bob Harris: The expectations for Jaxson Dart are high after an impressive rookie campaign in which he delivered eight top-10 fantasy weeks despite playing the bulk of the snaps in only 12 games. He was solid as a passer but elite as a rusher, finishing in the top five at the position in rushing attempts, yards, TDs, and carries inside the 5-yard line. He had 2,740 total yards from scrimmage and a 74.3 percent adjusted completion rate.
Now, Dart heads into his second season trying to emulate what Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and Bears quarterback Caleb Williams did in their second NFL seasons.
Dart's aggressive playing style has raised concerns about his durability. He was evaluated for a concussion in half of his starts (five out of 10 games). But what some consider reckless play also provides investors with fantasy upside.
We saw that last year, when he scored more than 20 points six times. But his 17.3 points per game on the season ranked 14th at the position.
As much as we like the rushing upside, we're paying a premium for his ceiling. There are a number of QBs with similar upside available at lower prices this season.