Over three weeks, offenses are turning back the clock. At least to Pre-2025. Passing attacks cratered in 2025, averaging 209.7 yards per team game, the lowest mark since 2006. So far in 2026, we are back to 217.6, the exact 2024 per-game average and a trend that held through the previous three seasons. We are a long way from the halcyon days of 2020, when teams spiked to 240.2 yards, but at least we are seeing a snapback after a crater. Now, if only the injuries would stop...
The Target Report
I view target trees as "clean" or "dirty." Clean trees distill targets to their top options and give standout fantasy performances. Dirty trees are, well, a mess and rely on unpredictable possibilities. The chart below categorizes these offenses.
Offenses with Top 2 Options > 60% Target Share
| Team | Team Targets | Player | Targets | Stat Line | Target % | ADOT | YAC | QB Rating | Snap % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland | 30 | Harold Fannin Jr. | 9 | 7-51-2 | 30% | 8.3 | 26 | 129.9 | 86% |
| KC Concepcion Jr. | 9 | 2-9-0 | 30% | 4 | 0 | 39.6 | 86% | ||
| Raheim Sanders | 5 | 4-34-0 | 17% | 0.8 | 29 | 95 | 43% | ||
| Indianapolis | 35 | Josh Downs | 11 | 5-77-0 | 31% | 15.6 | 25 | 31.2 | 68% |
| Tyler Warren | 10 | 9-55-0 | 29% | 2.8 | 38 | 89.6 | 94% | ||
| Keenan Allen | 9 | 6-63-1 | 26% | 7.9 | 19 | 123.8 | 73% | ||
| Minnesota | 25 | Jordan Addison | 9 | 5-90-1 | 36% | 16.8 | 9 | 87.5 | 98% |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 6 | 5-34-0 | 24% | -1.8 | 42 | 90.3 | 80% | ||
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 2-11-0 | 16% | 11 | 11 | 56.2 | 85% |
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Fannin leads off the Week 3 Sigh of Relief squad. We saw minimal usage for Fannin to start the season; he was key in the win. No personnel shifts suggest intentionality around opening Fannin; we should still expect volatile production as the offense integrates Concepcion and Denzel Boston. Week 4 brings a difficult matchup against Pittsburgh on a short Thursday night week.
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The Texans bottled up Jonathan Taylor, forcing a pass-heavy game. The target consolidation, with Downs, Warren, and Allen accounting for 86% of opportunities, is exactly what we want to see for fantasy. Laquon Treadwell is running deep clearouts, stepping in for Alec Pierce. Downs should be on Week 4 radars in particular, against a very bad Washington defense. The Sunday morning island takes him out of the DFS main slate. Allen moved into 30th in all-time receiving yardage and sits 2 receptions behind Reggie Wayne for 11th all-time.
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Justin Jefferson left with an injury, clearing the way for Addison's first good game of 2026. Addison was locked in contract negotiations with the Vikings before the season, and his off-field history matters, but performances like this give him leverage. Kyler Murray struggled again in a messy game. Jefferson should be back Week 4, making Addison a boom/bust option. The Vikings play Miami; their defense should smother a struggling Dolphins offense. Combine that situation with Murray's struggles, and pieces outside of Jefferson and Jones are highly questionable.
