You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
This week, we examine a veteran turning it on, a touchy injury situation, two tight end sleepers, and a returning stud.
1. Better late than never, will beast mode continue in Kansas City?
You probably took Lynch in the middle rounds or added him when a frustrated team waived him. The grand plan for Oakland was slow-rolling the league with Lynch later in the season. With 48 touches for 232 yards and 2 touchdowns during the past 2 weeks — including a 75 percent share of the running back snap count in Week 12 — there's reason to believe that Beast Mode is in gear.
But should we trust him this week in Kansas City? The crew writing our Rushing Matchups is ambivalent.
Neutral matchup. It seems as though the Raiders had planned this all along where they start Marshawn Lynch out slow and then as we got closer to the playoffs they start to utilize the running back to save him to be fresh later in the year. Lynch looked great last week against the Giants as he had his longest run since 2015 on a 51-yard run early in the game last week. The offensive line for Oakland continues to be a tremendous strength for this team led by a very strong left side of Donald Penn, Kelechi Osmele and center Rodney Hudson contribute to their ranking of the second best offensive line by Matt Bitonti.
The Chiefs run defense has been battle-tested over the last four games as they have given up the most rush attempts to opponents in the NFL with 31 attempts per game. While they have given up a lot of attempts, their defense has played relatively solidly holding opponents to just 3.3 yards per carry over their last four games which include games against two of the leagues better running backs in Ezekiel Elliott and LeSean McCoy. On the year, the Chiefs have been a team that is about league average when it comes to defending the run as they are solid up the middle with Bennie Logan and linebackers Reggie Ragland and Derrick Johnson, but do have some weak spots that can be exposed as Frank Zombo and the safeties have struggled against the run this season.
Since they referenced Bitonti, it's notable that he and Justis Mosqueda tout this matchup as one to trust In The Trenches.
OAK +20
Oakland @ Kansas City - Sunday 1 PM ET
JM: Between Week 6 and Week 12, the only team making fewer tackles at or behind the line than the Kansas City Chiefs were the Cincinnati Bengals. Last week against the New York, Jets quarterback Josh McCown was virtually untouched as he had a nearly flawless game through the air and run for two touchdowns. Chris Jones isn't making as many plays as he was in the first month of the season. Justin Houston can't be Superman every game. Allen Bailey is now a splash play-only lineman. When Houston drops into coverage (often), Derek Carr is going to have a lot of time to throw the ball.
BIT: The Raiders' offense has only run power blocking with Marshawn Lynch seven times this season. But Lynch averages 11 yards-per-carry when they go power run blocking (as defined as pull trap man scheme). The offense has run more power of late, taking advantage of their extremely talented line and the offense was clicking last week against the New York Giants. It's hard to pick just one Raiders' offensive lineman to praise. Donald Penn is extremely nimble and Rodney Hudson is a technician. The guards of Gabe Jackson and Kelechi Osemele are churning through defenders recently. "KO" particularly is putting together another All-Pro campaign. All of this adds up to a potentially unfortunate matchup for the Chiefs defense at home.
My Take: I love that Bitonti referenced the type of blocking schemes that have been working well for Lynch in recent weeks. Last week, the Raiders staff told the media that it has simplified its playbook in the running game, opting for plays that were most productive. With this in mind, let's look at the defensive matchups and see how teams fared that run power blocking plays.
This isn't an all-inclusive look, but from my own observation, the Broncos, Giants, Chargers, and Patriots are all on the list. The results are encouraging:
| Devontae Booker | 8 | 6 | 40 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 11.40 |
| C.J. Anderson | 8 | 15 | 78 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 8.50 |
| Jamaal Charles | 8 | 8 | 39 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4.40 |
| Orleans Darkwa | 11 | 20 | 74 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 15.00 |
| Wayne Gallman | 11 | 6 | 19 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2.20 |
| Shane Vereen | 11 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 1.80 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 17 | 79 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13.90 |
| Branden Oliver | 3 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 0 | 3.40 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0.60 |
| Mike Gillislee | 1 | 15 | 45 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22.50 |
| James White | 1 | 10 | 38 | 0 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 6.80 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 2.30 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.90 |
Gillislee was the Patriots' power-blocking runner earlier this year, Darkwa killed the Broncos on trap plays and fared well against the Chiefs, and the Broncos switched to a power scheme this year. It all looks promising for Lynch when scouting recent play-calling tendencies, opponent weaknesses, and Lynch's play. Go for it.
2. Don't shy away from Matthew Stafford
David Dodds' Game Predictor's yardage and touchdown projections for the Lions are top-three for the week in each category. Tampa Bay's secondary is that bad and the Lions passing offense is better than many realize.
If you're new to The Best Of, then you may not be familiar with Game Predictor. It's one of the driving forces behind Dodds' fantastic track record of projecting fantasy production. The application becomes better with each passing week, which means at this point, the projected data works well if there aren't major changes to personnel.
| Teams | Pass Comp | Pass Att | Pass Yds | Pass TDs | Pass Int | Rush Att | Rush Yds | Rush TDs | Score |
|---|
| Detroit Lions | 23 | 36 | 270 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 22 | 88 | 0.6 | 23.2 |
| at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 | 37 | 269 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 25 | 99 | 0.6 | 20.9 |
The big question is Stafford's hand. He's renown for his toughness but gutting through an injury to a throwing hand could have residual consequences for a strong fantasy corps of skill players.
Jene Bramel's Monday Injury Rounds delivered a clear idea of how to monitor Stafford's injury for the week ahead:
Television replays of the hand injuries suffered by Stafford and Prescott were striking. But, while the area on the back of the hand was swollen and painful, these injuries won't be a major concern. The back of the hand is one of the areas on the body notorious for swelling quickly and dramatically. If x-rays are negative and the player has enough grip strength to play his position, it's a "looks worse than it is" injury. That should prove to be the case with both Stafford and Prescott. Both reportedly have no bony injury and should be able to return to practice after early week treatment and rest.
Bramel's Thursday Night Injury Expectations delivered a green light for Stafford this weekend:
***Matthew Stafford reportedly looked more comfortable throwing in Thursday's practice. There was never any doubt Stafford would play but today's news is reassuring for his ability to throw with his usual accuracy and strength.
My Take: There's a likelihood for any quarterback to bounce his throwing hand off a defender's helmet in any game, which increases the concern for an aggravation to Stafford's injury and a downward spiral for the highly productive Jones and reliable Tate. However, Stafford has shown some skill protecting himself when he's playing hurt.
If Bramel believes there will be no adverse impact on Stafford's game, this is a great matchup. If a share of the Lions got you this far, don't overthink Stafford's hand.
3. Stephen Anderson is your tight end sleeper du jour
On the hand, you may be forced to think a little harder if Rob Gronkowski is a big reason for your playoff bid. There are a lot of candidates capable of delivering in Gronkowski's stead this week.
One of them is Sigmund Bloom's favorite option in this week's Sleepers:
Stephen Anderson, HOU (vs SF) - Even with Will Fuller possibly back this week, Anderson is a solid TE1 play against the 49ers. He should still be among Tom Savage’s top targets getting most of the tight end snaps. The floor for combined tight end production with Savage has been 3-40, and the 49ers are especially generous to opposing tight ends, allowing six scores in the last six games, including a five-game tight end scoring streak only broken by Mitchell Trubisky’s 15-attempt affair last week. Anderson is coming off a 5-79-1 performance that likely earned more trust from Savage with multiple catches in traffic.
My Take: Bloom and I discussed Anderson in detail On The Couch — and hour-long podcast where Bloom hosts fantasy writers from around the industry. I always liked Anderson's game because he was a savvy zone receiver who could withstand physical play at the catch point. He's a smart, over-achiever who's currently paired with a quarterback who can't help himself when he sees the hint of an opening in a highly trafficked area. Look for a lot of volume to Anderson. He's not a well-known name, but his skills and matchup make him a strong play.
4. David Njoku could also cure your Gronkowski blues
Njoku is the type of option that I bet many Gronkowski owners drafted late after taking the Patriots tight end in the top quarter of drafts. An athletic option with a strong catch radius and a flair for the acrobatic, Bloom notes how Njoku is emerging in the Browns' offense.
David Njoku, CLE (vs GB) - Njoku has four catches in each of the last two games, and he had the best game of his career last week, which in no coincidence marked Josh Gordon’s return to the lineup. The Packers have given up three tight end scores in the last two weeks, and Njoku is easily the most athletic tight end their limited inside linebacker group has faced all year. Njoku is risky, but as long as he maintains his strong snap and target count, he could come through in a big week.
I also agree with Bloom about Njoku. I analyzed Njoku's performance against the Chargers in The Top 10: Week 14. I believe he will benefit most from Josh Gordon's return:
It's just as important to consider that Gordon opened the field for tight end David Njoku (and whomever the Browns wish to feature on the single side of formations against man coverage).
I would anticipate that Njoku, and not Corey Coleman, will be the primary beneficiary of Gordon's return. Coleman will likely earn some big plays, but the Browns offense wants to run the ball and deliver the play-action pass.
The game plan also features a lot of two-tight end sets. These sets create more issues for defenses that must account for the ground game. It means a linebacker or safety will be aligned over Njoku in single coverage because the formation forces the defense to account for the Browns running to Njoku's side.
If the Browns draw a cornerback over the two tight ends, they'll run the ball (this didn't work out early in the game when Desmond King earned leverage against Seth Devalve and stuffed Isaiah Crowell). If they draw a safety or linebacker, we'll see Kizer look to Njoku up the seam or running the deep post.
My Take: The scheme explanation offers a logical map for Njoku's usage. It's also notable that Njoku had two targets last week where he made excellent catches, but the accuracy of the throws couldn't keep the tight end in-bounds.
With former Browns GM Sashi Brown losing the cold war with head coach Hue Jackson, we'll continue to see Jackson wield an aggressive vertical attack — especially against a susceptible Packers defense (more ahead).
5. Don't be afraid to start Josh Gordon
I've been writing about this for two weeks. There's more evidence worth your time this week.
Let's begin with Ryan Hester's Trendspotting, which will likely have a segment in this feature every week because it's that good. Here's what Hester wrote about the Packers' pass defense and what it means for Gordon:
A THEME IS DEVELOPING
Green Bay's struggles against the pass have been documented above, but their struggles against WR1s lately are apparent. Prior to holding Mike Evans in check last week, Green Bay had allowed:
- 10-169-2 to Antonio Brown (Week 12)
- 4-56-1 to Mike Wallace (Week 11)
- 6-88-0 to Dontrelle Inman (Week 10)
- 7-107-2 to Marvin Jones and 7-113-0 to Golden Tate (Week 9)
- 7-141-0 to Ted Ginn Jr and 7-82-0 to Michael Thomas (Week 7)
Josh Gordon's 210 air yards in Week 13 were the 15th highest single-game total in 2017.
Watching it back, he created multiple opportunities to score. Kizer's accuracy was an issue.Make no mistake; Josh Gordon is the WR1 in Cleveland, three-year hiatus or not.
My Take: This week's Top 10 followed-up on last week's Gut Check on Gordon, and the film matches the stats.
Yes, Gordon looks like a fantasy starter after an 85-yard performance against Casey Hayward and the Chargers. I've seen some Tweets floating around that his performance was "sober" or "good, but not great." From the perspective of the box score, these judgments make sense.
The film is more promising. As expected, his connection with a rookie quarterback would be the bigger issue than rust. Gordon did strong work when Deshone Kizer could get the ball within a reasonable range of the receiver's frame.
