Opening Thoughts on Week 1
This is not a fantasy boxing column. I don't even know if there's fantasy boxing. But there will be liberal references to jabs, body blows, and haymakers this week.
I didn't get lost in YouTube's treasure trove of classic fights. I've been studying explosive plays and its impact on offensive drives.
In Friday's "Best of" feature, I summarized research about explosive plays by Packers former Head of Research and Development Mike Eayrs. The NFL defines explosive plays as rushes of at least 12 yards and receptions of at least 16. These are much smaller minimums than many imagine but they matter.
When an NFL team has one explosive play of this type during the average offensive drive, it scores 29 percent of the time. When it has two, it scores 77 percent of the time. When a drive lacks a rush of 12 yards or a reception of at least 16 yards, the offensive scores only 9 percent of the time.
The general public thinks of an explosive play as bombs and breakaway runs of at least 20 yards. A 12-yard run or 16-yard reception to the average fan is an "intermediate play." But Coach Dub Maddox of Jenks High School, a top coaching mind among those in the know and the co-founder of the R4 System of offense, uses the analogy of boxing when discussing explosive plays as defined by the range in the previous paragraph.
According to Maddox, intermediate plays are like body blows in boxing that rock an opponent and forces the fighter to drop his hands, making him vulnerable to more damaging punches. Deep passes are like haymakers; they may connect without wearing down the opponent but the percentages are low and they don't usually knock the opponent out immediately. In football, those intermediate plays of at least 16 yards or runs of 12 yards are those body blows to an opposing defense.
This idea applied to a wide range of fantasy outcomes this week. First stop, Dallas.
1. Dak Prescott won the punch Tracker; Eli Manning won the Fight. The Fantasy Fallout
Former players, coaches, and broadcasters praised Dak Prescott for his 25-for-45, 227-yard performance in the opener. They also complimented offensive coordinator Scott Linehan for creating an unpredictable game plan.
A lot lies beneath these two positives that may change how we view the Cowboys offense until Tony Romo returns. The analysis will explain why Jason Witten and Cole Beasley's shares are up, Ezekiel Elliott's shares are slightly down, Prescott's stock remains steady, and Dez Bryant fantasy owners will fear an implosion if this gameplan remains the same for the next few weeks.
Prescott did exactly what the Cowboys expected from him and he deserves praise for it. But don't believe for a second that Linehan created an unpredictable game plan. Troy Aikman told the nation that Linehan mixed the run and pass well, which is true, but the Giants knew where Prescott was going with the ball and they were fine with it.
The Cowboys varied their formations and alignments in ways that created a significant "either/or" decision-making table for Prescott on most passing plays: Look to the deeper routes on one side of the field, and if it's not obviously there to take, the tight end or slot receiver coming from the middle or opposite side of the field before the snap will be breaking in front of you as the check-down.
The Giants opted to cover the deeper routes and Prescott did the correct thing and checked to Jason Witten and Cole Beasley to the tune of 17 catches and 131 yards. New York made the smart decision to test the Prescott-led offense by making them win on prolonged drives. The Giants figured at least one of two things would happen in their favor:
a) Prescott would get impatient and make mistakes.
b) The Cowboys would lack enough explosive plays to make the most of its drives and the offense would bog down in the red zone.
To Prescott's credit, he didn't make any mistakes. He even had one play where he read more than two receivers with five options in the secondary.
To the Giants credit, the Cowboys settled for four field goals on three scoring drives.
The Giants realized early that if the worst-case scenario was allowing Prescott to complete passes of 8-12 yards, that these plays couldn't loosen the defense enough to force them from its game plan. Look at the box score and see it fits:
- In addition to check-down options Jason Witten and Cole Beasley accounting for over 50 percent of Prescott's output, their long gains were 17 yards and 15 yards, respectively.
- There were only five "explosive plays" for the Cowboys offense as defined by Eayrs and Prescott and company couldn't deliver more than one on a single drive.
- The gameplan held Dez Bryant to one catch for eight yards.
If Prescott was a boxer in a fight, he would have connected an impressive amount of jabs, delivered five decent body blows, and telegraphed all of is haymakers with no effect. In contrast, Eli Manning's 19-for-28, 207-yard, 3-score, 1-interception performance was like a fighter that threw few jabs but connected a lot of heavy body blows and a few haymakers. Although the interception might qualify as a knock-down, the impact of Manning's punches and his overall control of the fight proved more effective.
When taking these points into consideration, the context behind all the praise for Prescott is understandable: former players are used to rookie quarterbacks making huge mistakes. Prescott had no turnovers, he got rid of the ball efficiently, and he led five scoring drives. Good stuff for a rookie, but it doesn't change the fact that Prescott couldn't create a big-play opportunity in the vertical game and as the Giants upped its pressure in the fourth quarter, Prescott was inaccurate against the blitz.
Fantasy Take: I'm not confident that New York's defense is significantly better than Dallas' next four opponents. At the same time, Washington, Chicago, San Francisco, and Cincinnati are offenses with at least three mistake-prone quarterbacks that could help the Cowboys win some close games with its conservative passing game.
It means Dez Bryant is a massive boom-bust fantasy option. Bryant will see targets inside the opponents' 20 but the big-yardage plays could be far less consistent until Prescott can become more of a coach on the field that we see with veteran quarterbacks—which is unlikely this year—or if the ground game generates explosive plays.
Speaking of Ezekiel Elliott, his stats weren't strong but it had little to do with his play.
Hello, @EzekielElliott...
— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2016
Hello, END ZONE!
His 1st career NFL TD 👇 #DallasCowboys #NYGvsDAL https://t.co/jIeszYzALZ
Elliott's burst, decision-making, and ability to finish strong were all on display in this game—even when the rushing lanes were too tight to yield gains like the one above. Alfred Morris had a more efficient day but let that box score production scare you, he'll remain the capable reserve giving Elliott a breather.
Don't expect Elliott to live up to elite RB1 fantasy production if this offense remains this conservative but look for the rookie to earn enough opportunities that he'll have more explosive plays as the season wears on. I'll be surprised if he provides anything worse than exactly the production we saw Sunday, which is still mid-to-low fantasy RB2 quality.
If you're a Witten owner in PPR leagues, you're set for the next 4-6 weeks if nothing changes. Cole Beasley is a good waiver wire pickup in PPR formats as depth you can start with reliable points if one of your starters gets hurt and you don't like boom-bust plays on your depth chart.
Prescott is a nice football story, but he's a not a productive fantasy option until he can generate explosive plays.
The Fantasy Football "Fresh Fish" Candidates Week 1
Fantasy football is a cruel place. We're always searching for that weakest link. While we don't want anyone facing the wrath of Hadley, we'd love nothing more than having our players face an opponent whose game has come unglued on the field.
In the spirit of "The Shawshank Redemption," here is my short list of players and/or units that could have you chanting "fresh fish" when your roster draws the match-up:
2. Atlanta's Linebacking Corps
DeVondre Campbell? Rookie. Sean Weatherspoon? He's on his second tour of duty with the Falcons after the Saints—yes, the Saints—let him go. He's not the player he once was. Deion Jones is a fine athlete and still earning his first taste of starting in the league. It means you're going to see plenty of what we saw on Sunday, and it was beautiful for Tampa's backs and tight ends.
Campbell committed a pass interference on Austin Seferian-Jenkins early in the game, which led to a field goal. Weatherspoon couldn't even keep up with Seferian-Jenkins...
Perfect throw from @jaboowins.
— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2016
CRAZY @aesj88 catch.@tbbuccaneers TD! #TBvsATL https://t.co/GmTK0qWUH0
Then there was Campbell and Jones colliding like the crooks in a "Home Alone" send-up with Charles Sims as Macaulay Culkin.
.@tbbuccaneers RB @csims34 shaking defenders out of their shoes and scoring TDs...
— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2016
This is INSANE. #TBvsATL https://t.co/wgujHGFRXh
Fantasy Take: Backs and tight ends for Oakland, New Orleans, Carolina, and Denver are chanting in their sleep.
3. Cardinals Running (Corner) Back Brandon Williams
Technically, Williams is now a cornerback but he's a second-year player attempting the conversion to the position and it wasn't good. If you watched last night's game, you would have seen that the NBC broadcast team was chanting "fresh fish" as it broadcast pre-game warm-ups with Patrick Peterson trying to give Williams a crash course in cornerback play
Williams gave up a 37-yard touchdown to Chris Hogan because he confused a man assignment with a zone assignment, giving Jimmy Garoppolo one of the easiest long touchdown passes he'll ever throw for the rest of his career. Later, Williams overran his angle on Malcolm Mitchell and the one-armed rookie receiver turned the short curl inside and up the field to the red zone, setting up another score. The defense will never sell out a player in this situation to the media, but it's the truth that Williams was like a big hole in the hull of a speedboat.
Fantasy Take: If Arizona doesn't find a replacement soon, the Buccaneers, Bills, Rams, and 49ers could be cooking up some collards for a fish fry. Vincent Jackson, Robert Woods, Mike Quick, and Quinton Patton could all benefit if you're in a desperate situation.
4. IDPers, Get a Bigger boat: Branden Albert and Laremy Tunsil
Tunsil and Albert gave up a pair of sacks to Frank Clark and Michael Bennett on Sunday and both came on line stunts and twists. Tunsil also didn't set up with the appropriate line split on a field goal attempt and it led to a blocked kick. Tunsil will only get better but don't be surprised if the former Ole Miss tackle has more moments of confusion against NFL defenders.
My Fantasy Take: Streaming defenses? Choosing between two options? Look for New England, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Tennessee to earn sacks and turnovers at the expense of the talented but youngTunsil until he gets it together.
5. Chargers LB Manti Te'o
He didn't give up all of Spencer Ware's 132 receiving yards but he was significant benefactor involved with the 13 receptions that Ware and Charcandrick West accumulated during the Chiefs' biggest comeback victory in team history. The two runners ran some pretty routes that would have fooled a multitude of linebackers in this league but was clear that Kansas City saw that Te'o was not able to stay with its backs and they made him and the other linebackers pay.
My Fantasy Take: T.J. Yeldon draws the Chargers next week and he is an excellent receiving back.
6. The Saints pass defense
The New Orleans defense is Monty Python's Black Knight and cornerback Delvin Breaux was the final leg that got chopped off...
I'm invincible!...Alright, we'll call it a draw.
The Giants, Falcons, and Chargers offenses are next in line for the fireworks convention. Get some.
7. Still The One: Larry Fitzgerald and his old man game
It's only one game...
It's just the first game...
I don't care, Larry Fitzgerald is still the best fantasy option in the Cardinals passing game. I've been saying it all offseason. Although he's older and maybe not the great perimeter receiver that he once was, he hasn't fallen off the age cliff.
He can still do this as well as anyone in the game.
.@LarryFitzgerald does it AGAIN!
— NFL (@NFL) September 12, 2016
This incredible grab gives the @AZCardinals the lead! #NEvsAZ https://t.co/X8rtfHK5rF
But I didn't recommend Fitzgerald this summer as an extreme value because he still can make the difficult plays. What people fail to understand is that Fitzgerald doesn't have to be in Michael Floyd's role anymore and it benefits the offense more. Fitzgerald's presence in the slot makes him the most flexible piece in the passing game. Carson Palmer can move him around the formation and dictate matchups against overwhelmed linebackers, slot corners, and safeties. It's the fact that Fitzgerald is the beneficiary of the highest percentage plays that makes him a favorite.
My Fantasy Take: If your team finds itself poor at a position other than receiver, consider trading a stud for Fitzgerald and a tight end or RB3 or tight end that can help you— that is, if that fantasy owner believes Fitzgerald is nothing more than a fantasy WR3/WR4 who happened to have a good game.
Making Sense of The RB Tandems
I hate running back by committee but it's an unfortunate reality to our fantasy life. These messes won't be sorted out Week 1 but there are a two I want to wade into.
8. Mr. Outside (Tevin Coleman) and Mr. Inside (Devonta Freeman)
The lede might be Coleman out produced Freeman, but the real story is that Atlanta figured out how to best use Coleman and it will come at Freeman's expense for at least 2-3 weeks.
When it comes to running between the tackles, there is nothing that I saw yesterday or during the preseason that alters the fact that Freeman is the superior player at the line of scrimmage. But we all know Coleman has great speed and strength and that's what Atlanta wants to exploit.
Yesterday, the Falcons figured it out. The coaches made Coleman almost exclusively a space player and it worked to the tune of 13 touches and 117 yards from scrimmage—95 yards in the passing game.
The most impressive play for Coleman was a 47-yard gain where he made a back-shoulder adjustment on a pass thrown behind him in the right flat and didn't break stride. Still, Coleman was not effective behind the line of scrimmage. His best gain as a runner came on a pitch to end. None of his gains up the middle made an impact in the context of the down and distance situation when he earned the ball. Most of his runs were to the perimeter.
What matters most is how Atlanta found multiple ways to vary its delivery of the ball to Coleman in the open field so the defense would not focus on him. In addition to traditional swing routes, the Falcons split Coleman used play-action and let Coleman filter from the backfield to the flat, targeted the runner on middle screens, and split him as a receiver.
Much of this worked because the defense paid more attention to stopping Freeman inside. Tampa understands that the play-action passing game that's central to the Falcon's offense works in conjunction with effective gains up the middle. The Buccaneers stacked the box and eliminated this part of the offense.
And it worked. Atlanta's ground game was ineffective and it was forced to play from behind after the second quarter. A lot of Coleman's production came with Freeman also on the field.
The two most important potential developments for fantasy owners with Coleman and/or Freeman: A) How well Atlanta can vary its formations to disguise Coleman as the primary receiver? B) If Atlanta can keep Coleman's usage unpredictable and productive, opponents will become more focused on Coleman and there will be larger rushing lanes for Freeman.
The big question is whether Atlanta can be less predictable. Kyle Shanahan is known as one of the most stubborn, "my scheme is king" coaches in the NFL and the offense's use of a read-option play-fake worked early but the staff didn't know when to leave it alone and the offense took two sacks when the defense stopped biting on it. The same was true of red zone shovel passes to Freeman in the red zone.
My Fantasy Take: With Oakland and New Orleans ahead, play Coleman now and consider selling him high if he remains a one-dimensional space player who is benefitting from Atlanta's scheming more than improved play between the tackles. With Carolina, Denver, and Seattle looming as opponents in Weeks 4-6, Coleman's drop in production could get ugly if Atlanta doesn't reveal additional creativity.
9. Most improved (Melvin Gordon) and Mr. Versatile (Danny Woodhead)
Gordon ran hard last year but he had few holes to run through due to injuries along the offensive line, he wasn't healthy, and he wasn't used to the smaller creases of the NFL. This year, Gordon is healthy and far more decisive at the point of attack.
He not only found the smaller creases, he also made defenders miss in tight spaces. Philip Rivers has praised Gordon's improved footwork and confidence. These things can happen when a running back picks the best at his profession (Adrian Peterson) and trains with him during the offseason.
Woodhead's understanding of the slot is so intricate, that the Chargers can use both runners in the same formation in far easier combinations than what a team like Atlanta will have to create for its pair of backs. The loss of Keenan Allen hurts this offense, but San Diego thrives on a short passing game that's spearheaded by Rivers' skill to read defenses and make adjustments at the line.
My Fantasy Take: Look for Woodhead to earn more opportunities as a receiver and open things up for Gordon between the tackles. Tyrell Williams is a good flier on the waiver wire because he has excellent stop-start acceleration and change of direction for a big receiver and he adjusts well to errant throws. He has fantasy potential as a productive bye-week or flex option.
10. Carolina Trips Formation
Thursday night, Cam Newton and company earned productive plays when they ran a trips formation (three receivers to one side). One of the better plays was this touchdown to Kelvin Benjamin
Again...
The @CameronNewton to @KelvinBenjamin is BACK.
And they're scoring TDs. #Kickoff2016#KeepPoundinghttps://t.co/2qlIdveA1P— NFL (@NFL) September 9, 2016
When Carolina can place two of Benjamin, Devin Funchess, and Greg Olsen side by side as the inside options on the trips side, it places the single safety in a bind to choose one and give Newton an easy read to hit the other.
My Fantasy Take: I expect Benjamin and Funchess to benefit the most. Olsen will often be placed opposite the formation to occupy a linebacker or second safety so this pick-your-poison situation can take place. I like Benjamin as a strong WR2 with top-10 upside and Funchess as a decent WR3 despite a slow start.