Dynasty Startup Draft Strategy

The startup draft in a dynasty fantasy football league is critical to your success. You cannot win your league in the draft, but you can seriously set yourself back by making poor decisions.

Plan Your Board Ahead of Time

Before the draft, establish a game plan. There is a good two-step process to do this. First, look at each position starting at the end of the draft and work towards the beginning, identifying players you like at their cost. Second, use different strategies to see how your roster would look with your target players. How do you feel if you select four running backs in the first six rounds compared to four wide receivers? Likewise, how do you feel if you wait on a quarterback and/or tight end instead of selecting one early?

This exercise will give you benchmarks and pivot points to identify when the unexpected happens during the draft.

Chose A Contending Window

There is no one size fits all strategy in dynasty fantasy football. Some owners aim to win in year one, while others look to build a long-term team. While reasonable minds can differ on the proper strategy, once you decide on a time frame for your team, every decision you make should be aimed at executing that strategy. Your player selections and trade decisions should all reflect the strategy you choose. Like oars on a boat, your decisions should all pull in the same direction.

If you are taking a win-now approach, you should avoid rookie wide receivers who rarely produce earlier in their career. Instead, you should favor veteran wide receivers with at least one top 24 seasonal finish in their career. If you are going to mix veterans with rookies, the optimal route is veteran wide receivers paired with rookie running backs as both are capable of short-term production.

If you are taking a long-term view, a simple way to think about player decisions is to ask yourself, “will this player be on my next contending team?” If you are building a long-term strategy to compete in year three of the league, a 33-year-old wide receiver is unlikely to contribute on your next contending team. Avoiding this type of wide receiver, in favor of a younger player is a preferred strategy.

Roster Construction Strategy

Roster construction is a critical decision in dynasty fantasy football.

While a common narrative is wide receivers maintain their value better than running backs in dynasty leagues, that is only true early in startup drafts. Since 2008, 42% of wide receivers with an average draft position (ADP) in the first five rounds of a startup draft drop more than a round in ADP after the first season. This compares favorably to the 59% of running backs in the top five rounds who lose more than one round in value after the first season.

After the top five rounds, wide receivers do not maintain their value significantly better than running backs. In Round 6 through Round 10, 68% of running backs lose a round of value compared to 62% of wide receivers while in Round 11 through Round 15, more wide receivers (67%) lose a round of ADP valuation after a year than running backs (64%).

While wide receivers do not present significantly safer investments in the middle rounds of your draft, they also are less likely to produce a top-24 seasonal finish. Below is a graph with the rate of both running back and wide receiver producing a top-24 seasonal finish within the first three years of a startup draft.

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