Two of my favorite things are Best Ball and DRAFTERS, and each week this offseason, I want to share with you my insights on both. With DRAFTERS releasing their main event tournament, excitement has been growing each day ever since. Each week, I want to break down what has changed from the previous week regarding NFL news, Best Ball news, and the top ADP Risers and Fallers on DRAFTERS. It's useful to compare Best Ball to the stock market and day trading stocks, but instead of stocks, we are looking at NFL players, specifically those players' Average Draft Position (ADP). We are constantly seeking to identify players of value in our drafts and avoid those who might be overvalued.
Each week, I will use updated DRAFTERS data to show the APD movement of the top risers and fallers on the site. ADP is often driven by the news that week and what some of the major touts in the industry might be saying about said players, and the result will be a shift in the ADP market
Let's look at last week's data (7/8-7/15) and find the top 10 Risers and Fallers for the past week:
DRAFTERS Weekly Best Ball Risers
Top 10 Risers
| Position | Player | Team | ADP Rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | Juwan Johnson | NO | 2.6 |
| RB | Rico Dowdle | CAR | 2.4 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | KC | 2.1 |
| TE | Evan Engram | DEN | 2.1 |
| WR | Luther Burden III | CHI | 2.1 |
| WR | Keenan Allen | CHI | 2.1 |
| QB | Jordan Love | GB | 2.0 |
| TE | Isaiah Likely | BAL | 2.0 |
| RB | RJ Harvey | DEN | 1.9 |
| QB | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 1.9 |
Other names on the rise (11-20 ADP Risers): Dyami Brown, Andrei Iosivas, Quinshon Judkins, Aaron Rodgers, Brandon Aiyuk, Isaac Guerendo, Kyle Williams, Caleb Williams, Jayden Higgins, and Jalen Hurts.
The Risers Takeaways: The tight end position has four players in the top 10 risers this week, with Juwan Johnson, Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, and Isaiah Likely. I have been loving Johnson this year as a late-round target at the tight end position. There are not a lot of pass catchers in New Orleans outside of Chris Olave, so slotting Johnson in for more targets with a rookie quarterback starting makes sense. With Kelce, Engram, and Likely all being on strong offenses, drafters must be flocking more to them and stacking them with their quarterbacks.
We have two quarterbacks on the risers list with Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence, and they both make sense to me as guys moving up draft boards. They have plenty of skill players surrounding them, making them easy quarterbacks to add as your second and third options in best ball and back-stacking them with some pass catchers. They are also somewhat at the end of their quarterback tiers, so if you want a quarterback at those draft spots, you might be forced to bump them up in drafts.
Rico Dowdle and RJ Harvey are the two running backs on the rise this week, with Dowdle being a great value right now in drafts on a young team and is clearly slotted in as the second option on the Panthers running back depth chart. With Harvey, I think we will see him continue to rise as training camp kicks off and positive reports about him start to surface. At wide receiver this week, Luther Burden III and Keenan Allen are the two risers. Burden has been battling an injury early on, which has caused drafters to push him down the board. However, as time passes and he recovers, a correction is occurring in the market. As for Allen, he is one of the real unknowns right now on what to do with him as he remains unsigned. If he signs with any team, his ADP will likely shift by 3-4 rounds.
DRAFTERS Weekly Best Ball Fallers
Top 10 Fallers
| Position | Player | Team | ADP Fall |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Savion Williams | GB | -2.5 |
| WR | Pat Bryant | DEN | -1.8 |
| RB | Joe Mixon | HOU | -1.8 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | KC | -1.7 |
| WR | DeMario Douglas | NE | -1.7 |
| WR | Calvin Austin III | PIT | -1.7 |
| QB | Justin Fields | NYJ | -1.6 |
| WR | Jalen McMillan | TB | -1.6 |
| WR | Matthew Golden | GB | -1.5 |
| QB | J.J. McCarthy | MIN | -1.5 |
Other names on the fall (11-20 ADP Fallers): Najee Harris, Braelon Allen, Dylan Sampson, Roschon Johnson, Diontae Johnson, Jerry Jeudy, Tyler Allgeier, Jauan Jennings, Dak Prescott, and Wan'Dale Robinson.
The Faller Takeaways: It is the time of year when we see wide receivers move all over the draft board, and this week, seven out of the ten fallers are all from that position. Three of those are rookies in Savion Williams, Pat Bryant, and Matthew Golden. If Golden is falling, I think it is a great time to start buying more shares of him at an ADP discount. Marquise Brown, DeMario Douglas, Calvin Austin III, and Jalen McMillan are the other fallers, and they all offer some value as part of best ball roster construction goes. They have value and opportunity on their teams, and that is what I am looking for later in drafts to help me build out a competitive team.
We have no tight ends on the fallers list this week and only one running back in Joe Mixon. He might be solely affected by a falling ADP because he is still dealing with an injury and hasn't been cleared for football activities just yet. At quarterback, having Justin Fields and J.J. McCarthy as fallers is somewhat surprising, as both project to have breakout years ahead of them with some upside built in. They are both players that I want to buy, especially if their ADP is declining.
Weekly News and Notes
- WR Terry McLaurin WAS - Is still looking to get a new contract before the season kicks off.
- QB Anthony Richardson Sr. IND - Still dealing with shoulder injury; will be eased back into Training Camp.
- WR DeMario Douglas NE - Looks to be the top guy for the slot role in New England.
- WR Jordan Addison MIN - Begins jury trial, and if convicted, could be in line to be suspended for some games.
- RB Najee Harris LAC - Isn't expected to miss much time in Training Camp with eye injury.
- TE Colston Loveland CHI - Continues to rehab his injured shoulder, still uncertain for camp.
- WR Mike Williams LAC - Starts camp on the PUP list.
- WR Garrett Wilson NYJ - Signs a four-year, $130M extension.
- WR Jauan Jennings SF - Is looking for a new contract or a possible trade.
- RB Quinshon Judkins CLE - Arrested in Florida on strike/battery/domestic violence charges.
Best Ball Industry News
Drafters - Drafters released a $2.5 million Best Ball tournament with a $20 entry fee and a top prize of $500,000. It is currently 34,100/140,004 full, and has seen 2,300 new entries in the last week.
Drafters has also released their $3 Best Ball Championship Mini II, which is now 18,600/46,140 full, with 6,600 new entries this week. It has a $25,000 prize to first place.
Author Bio
I have been playing Best Ball for six-plus years now and have learned valuable lessons along the way. I want to share that knowledge with our customers at Footballguys.com. My name is James Brimacombe, and my username on DRAFTERS and around the various Best Ball and DFS sites is "Eaglezzz". I will be honest with you each week as I try to help guide you on your own personal Best Ball journey in 2025. I have made mistakes over the years, but have also done a few things correctly. I will always share my knowledge from both perspectives. You can always follow me on Twitter as I share my Best Ball thoughts there daily and am always happy to answer questions via replies or DMs. You can follow along here @JamesBrimacombe.
New users at DRAFTERS: use promo code "FOOTBALLGUYS" for a 100% deposit match up to $100. Have fun, and see you in the lobby!
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