Breece Hall: Running Down a Dream
By Colton Dodgson - Exclusive to Footballguys
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Running Down a Dream
The days of Breece Hall as a top-five lock feel like ancient history. In reality, though, it was just last year that he was mentioned in the same breath as Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey as the top options at running back.
The decline in his stock is a byproduct of his 13.3 Half-PPR points per game and RB17 finish in 2024.
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Getting the right read on Hall could end up being one of the more critical tasks for fantasy managers entering draft season. On one hand, we've seen the talent. You don't just stumble into RB1 status by accident. If this is the year he puts it together, he'll be a massive value. It looks like he's made it through the trade rumors, at least for the time being.
Inversely, though, why hasn't he lived up to the billing? Is the breakout still on track, or have we missed the window?
The Iowa State product – and his fantasy managers – are running down that dream.
The History
Breece Hall's Career Overview
One of the more encouraging aspects of Hall's profile is that he's already put a top-five half-PPR finish between him and the knee injury he suffered as a rookie. The 2023 run was interesting statistically.
On 223 carries, Hall was more effective on a per carry basis than expected. His +0.7 rushing yards over expectation per carry tied for the fifth-highest mark among qualified running backs. Still, a 33.2 percent success rate and -0.16 expected points added per carry would tell you the fantasy production was largely buoyed by receiving volume and pass-happy game scripts.
He averaged 13.1 rushing attempts per game, 23rd among qualifying running backs. His 5.6 targets and 4.5 receptions per game, though, were both the second most. The receiving volume was efficient, too. Hall's +0.01 EPA/target was the seventh-best total among running backs in 2023.
Anytime volume and efficiency correlate positively, production is virtually guaranteed to follow. His 14.9 Half-PPR PPG and RB4 finish were a prime indication.
In 2024, he was still an explosive player, even though the numbers didn't correlate as they had in previous years.
Hall finished with an explosive run rate — runs in the top 10 percentile of yards gained — of 8.1 percent on 223 carries in 2023. That was 22nd in the NFL. That rate jumped to 10.5 percent on 209 carries in 2024, good for eighth among RBs with at least 150 carries.
Competition is a concern with Hall. Braelon Allen showed some juice as a rookie and might see an increased role in his second season. It is worth mentioning, though, that Allen averaged just 3.5 carries per game over the team's final four games in 2024. His EPA/attempt was -0.2.
Hall handled 64.6 percent of the snaps out of New York's backfield and 23 of the team's 42 red zone rushing attempts. For reference, the Jets ran the ball in the red zone less than any other team in the NFL. Allen handled 11 of those attempts.
Tanner Engstrand, whom we'll get to in more depth shortly, could very well have grander plans for the former fourth-round pick. If his previous situation is any indication, there's room for multiple backs in this offense.
Rushing volume hasn't been a prerequisite to Hall's fantasy output. If the Jets run the ball more effectively under new leadership next season, the resume would indicate Hall has a meaningful role to play in that endeavor.
The system Engstrand projects to implement has the feel of one Hall could excel in....
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