Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Total | Team Total | Running | Passing | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | San Diego | -10.5 | 45 | 27.75 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
| Carolina | Atlanta | -8 | 46.5 | 27.25 | +++ | ++ | + |
| Tampa Bay | New Orleans | -4 | 50.5 | 27.25 | ++ | +++ | |
| Arizona | Minnesota | -7.5 | 46.5 | 27 | +++ | ++ | + |
| Seattle | Baltimore | -10 | 42.5 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | +++ |
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | -3 | 49.5 | 26.25 | + | ++ | |
| Denver | Oakland | -7.5 | 43.5 | 25.5 | ++ | + | ++ |
| NY Jets | Tennessee | -7 | 43 | 25 | + | + | ++ |
| Green Bay | Dallas | -6.5 | 42.5 | 24.5 | + | + | ++ |
| New England | Houston | -3.5 | 45 | 24.25 | |||
| Philadelphia | Buffalo | -1 | 47 | 24 | |||
| NY Giants | Miami | -1 | 46.5 | 23.75 | |||
| Chicago | Washington | -3.5 | 43.5 | 23.5 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Cincinnati | 3 | 49.5 | 23.25 | |||
| New Orleans | Tampa Bay | 4 | 50.5 | 23.25 | |||
| Buffalo | Philadelphia | 1 | 47 | 23 | |||
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | |||
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | |||
| Miami | NY Giants | 1 | 46.5 | 22.75 | |||
| Detroit | St. Louis | -3 | 41 | 22 | + | ||
| Cleveland | San Francisco | -2 | 41 | 21.5 | + | ||
| Houston | New England | 3.5 | 45 | 20.75 | |||
| Washington | Chicago | 3.5 | 43.5 | 20 | |||
| Minnesota | Arizona | 7.5 | 46.5 | 19.5 | + | ||
| San Francisco | Cleveland | 2 | 41 | 19.5 | |||
| Atlanta | Carolina | 8 | 46.5 | 19.25 | + | ||
| St. Louis | Detroit | 3 | 41 | 19 | |||
| Tennessee | NY Jets | 7 | 43 | 18 | + | ||
| Oakland | Denver | 7.5 | 43.5 | 18 | + | ||
| Dallas | Green Bay | 6.5 | 42.5 | 18 | + | ||
| San Diego | Kansas City | 10.5 | 45 | 17.25 | + | ||
| Baltimore | Seattle | 10 | 42.5 | 16.25 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Jameis Winston (Buccaneers)
- Running Back: Charcandrick West/Spencer Ware (Chiefs), Jonathan Stewart (Panthers), David Johnson (Cardinals)
- Receivers: Mike Evans/Vincent Jackson/Austin Seferian-Jenkins (Buccaneers)
- Defense: Chiefs, Seahawks
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Alex Smith (Chiefs), Cam Newton (Panthers), Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Russell Wilson (Seahawks)
- Running Back: Doug Martin (Buccaneers), Thomas Rawls (Seahawks), Ronnie Hillman/C.J. Anderson (Broncos)
- Receivers: Jeremy Maclin/Albert Wilson/Travis Kelce (Chiefs), Ted Ginn Jr/Corey Brown/Greg Olsen (Panthers), Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown/Michael Floyd (Cardinals), A.J. Green/Marvin Jones/Tyler Eifert (Bengals), Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Tyler Lockett (Seahawks)
- Defense: Broncos, Jets, Packers
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Brock Osweiler (Broncos), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jets), Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Matt Cassel (Cowboys), Marcus Mariota (Titans), Derek Carr (Raiders), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Matt Schaub (Ravens)
- Running Back: Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard (Bengals), Eddie Lacy (Packers), Chris Ivory (Jets)
- Receivers: Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders (Broncos), Randall Cobb/Davante Adams/Richard Rodgers (Packers), Brandon Marshall/Eric Decker (Jets), Stefon Diggs/Mike Wallace/Kyle Rudolph (Vikings), Julio Jones/Roddy White/Jacob Tamme (Falcons), Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams/Jason Witten (Cowboys), Kendall Wright/Dorial Green-Beckham/Delanie Walker (Titans), Amari Cooper/Michael Crabtree (Raiders), Steve Johnson/Antonio Gates/Ladarius Green (Chargers), Kamar Aiken/Chris Givens/Maxx Williams
- Defense: Panthers, Cardinals, Lions, Browns
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Davante Adams
Giovani Bernard
Teddy Bridgewater
John Brown
Derek Carr
Randall Cobb
Amari Cooper
Andy Dalton
Stefon Diggs
Mike Evans
Ryan Fitzpatrick
A.J. Green
David Johnson
Julio Jones
Marvin Jones Jr
Travis Kelce
Tyler Lockett
Marcus Mariota
Cam Newton
Aaron Rodgers
Richard Rodgers
Kyle Rudolph
Matt Ryan
Emmanuel Sanders
Maxx Williams
Albert Wilson
Russell Wilson
Jameis Winston