This week we discuss the following:
- Titans running backs
- Vikings running backs
- Jets running backs
- Ravens wide receivers
- Bengals wide receivers
- Texans wide receivers
- Struggling running backs
- QB-WR connections
- Eddie Royal
Titans running backs
Is Bishop Sankey in the process of ripping the starting job away from Shonn Greene? What's his realistic potential as a fantasy running back over the second half of the season?
Andy Hicks: I have been really surprised at the lack of patience in some people regarding Bishop Sankey. Not every rookie running back comes out and puts up RB1 stats in their first year, in fact most don't. Through four games Emmitt Smith only had 37 carries at 2.81 yards a clip. Sankey was worth RB2 consideration if the Titans were a good team or at least able to use the run game into the third quarter. He will obviously be more of a factor as the season wears on and if he is able to keep improving and the Titans can get into some competitive fixtures then Sankey can be a useful RB2. Greene was just there as an experienced pair of hands to take the pressure off a rookie in the early part of the season. It's almost textbook, yet we see fantasy owners panic when he doesn't rip off 25-136-2 in the first few weeks.
Alex Miglio: Shonn Green has always been a plodder, justifiably vilified in the fantasy football community. His value this year stemmed from opportunity—the Titans were bringing Sankey along slowly, it seemed—but that is bleeding away with every Sankey touch. Questions about "footwork" aside, Sankey is clearly the best running back the Titans have, and his playing time is increasing accordingly. The rookie may not win the starting job outright while both are healthy, but it's a good bet he will overtake Greene in overall touches sooner rather than later. That makes him a fantasy RB2 option going forward.
Kyle Wachtel: I fall in line with Andy and Alex in that Sankey should eventually become the lead back in Tennessee. However, Greene won't completely disappear and would likely remain the preferred short-yardage and goal line back. Dexter McCluster would also have a role, albeit a minor one, and may steal some passing down snaps. With those three bodies all involved, it's tough to see more than a borderline RB2 with Sankey.
Steve Buzzard: Rookie running backs tend to increase their playing time throughout the season. If you plot out rookie running backs production over the season in the first four games of the season they tend to score about 75% of their season average and that is up to 123% by seasons end. Those splits go down slightly for second round running backs like Sankey but still represent 92% and 114%, respectively. Sankey played on 45% of the snaps the last two weeks after only playing 10% during the first two weeks. In comparison, Shonn Greene has gone from 41% in the season opener to 20% since then. Greene is still out touching Sankey slightly but Sankey is putting up better stats. Sankey is one of my top buys right now and I would safely rank him around his preseason ranks of RB25.
Matt Harmon: Sankey could be the surprise running back over the second half of the season. I still don’t think he is overwhelmingly gifted, but he does look to inherit a good amount of volume here any week now. He is miles better than Shonn Greene.
Vikings running backs
Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon both had big weeks against the Falcons on Sunday. McKinnon has been described as a change-of-pace back, but is he going to take over the featured role at some point this season? Does he have a sizable advantage in talent over Asiata?
Andy Hicks: The Minnesota situation is very similar to what we are seeing in Tennessee.
Asiata is the experienced player with a rookie competing for playing time. Asiata has made the most of his opportunities and despite lacking the skill level required to be a permanent starter is doing enough to earn playing time. Jerick McKinnon threw in his chips in a promising display that will merit further playing time. Given the ups and downs of the Vikings season the situation remains fluid and we don't even know if and when Adrian Peterson returns. For now McKinnon has the higher upside, but I'd like to see more than one games effort against a substandard Falcons defense away from home.
Alex Miglio: Is there even a question that McKinnon is more talented than Asiata? He is far more dynamic, that's for sure. That may not be enough to get him on the field to be a viable fantasy starter, though.
It was a nice breakout for McKinnon last week, to be sure, but let's all take a nice dose of salt—it was the Atlanta Falcons defense, after all. Asiata got the start and all the goal line work, which is why he was able to score three touchdowns. McKinnon, meanwhile, feasted on that awful run defense with some big plays that may not be there when he's facing a defense that is remotely good against the run. It seems that the Vikings will continue to give Asiata the start and the majority share in that backfield while keeping McKinnon as their change-of-pace guy, making the latter a boom-or-bust prospect on a weekly basses.
Kyle Wachtel: While McKinnon's production versus Atlanta's shoddy run defense should be taken with a grain of salt, Asiata continued to plod against that same unit and his career yards-per-carry now stands at an uninspiring 3.55. The talent gap in their natural running ability is massive and eventually, McKinnon can be expected to wrest away the lead role from Asiata. However, McKinnon has not shown well in pass protection and so he would likely continue to lose snaps on passing downs, as well as the goal line. Ultimately, that would leave McKinnon as just an RB2/Flex even with the lead role.
Steve Buzzard: McKinnon is the better talent but the Vikings trust Asiata. However, I think as the season progresses it makes sense for the Vikings to get McKinnon more involved. The future in Minnesota isn’t Asiata, Greg Jennings, and Matt Cassel. It’s Jerick McKinnon, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Teddy Bridgewater. We know they have already given free rein to Bridgewater it’s only a matter of time before they get McKinnon and Patterson more involved to see how much they can rely on them going forward. Asiata will probably score more points this year than McKinnon due to TD’s but McKinnon has the more explosive upside.
Matt Harmon: Talent-wise, Asiata isn’t even in the same neighborhood as McKinnon. The rookie has rare movement skills, while Asiata runs like a full back. The trouble is, the coaching staff clearly values Asiata’s reliability as a runner and contributions in the passing game. The cream usually rises to the top. Yet, Asiata is not going anywhere and limits any potential McKinnon breakout.
Adam Harstad: This really is going to depend on how narrowly you define "talent." McKinnon has more raw physical ability than Asiata. McKinnon arguably has more raw physical ability than any offensive player since Vernon Davis and Calvin Johnson. If raw physical ability were the same as talent, we'd be sizing Matt Jones up for his gold jacket right about now.
McKinnon is obviously the guy that the Vikings want to take over in the long-term, but right now he's as raw as good sushi. We've seen in the past that "inferior talents" have been able to keep phenoms on the bench. In 2013, BenJarvus Green-Ellis received 50 more carries than Giovani Bernard, and McKinnon is no Giovani Bernard. In 2011, an end-of-the-road Thomas Jones received 15 more carries than Jamaal Charles, (who was averaging 6.4 yards per carry), and McKinnon is definitely no Jamaal Charles. I could go on- Andre Ellington and Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice and Willis McGahee (and LeRon McClain!), LeSean McCoy and Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson and Marshall Faulk, DeAngelo Williams and DeShaun Foster, etc. History is littered with talented rookies who were kept on the bench by aging, plodding, or untalented veterans while they learned the ropes.
I think McKinnon will see his role expand as the season goes on, especially if Minnesota's record goes south and they start casting an eye towards the future. I also think Minnesota is content with Asiata and will gladly continue to ride him unless and until he gives them reason not to trust him.
For fantasy purposes, I think Asiata is an every-week starter going forward, whereas McKinnon is more of a flex play or bye-week fill-in.
Jets running backs
Is Chris Ivory better than Chris Johnson? How do you expect each of the backs to be used for the remainder of the season?
Andy Hicks: Chris Ivory has clearly looked the better back, but Chris Johnson is notorious for his slow starts to the season in recent years. Given both Ivory's injury history and Chris Johnsons second half season performance in the past, both will have use and if either ends up on the waiver wire I wouldn't hesitate to grab them. The Jets running game is only a decent quarterback performance away from being very productive and between Ivory and Johnson they are averaging 20-25 carries a game, six targets and a touchdown a game. They could both be productive bottom end RB2s with the right matchup and if either misses time then their value increases. Ivory for now, but Johnson will do well if circumstances dictate.
Alex Miglio: Yes. Ivory has been better than Johnson for some time now. The problem has been his inability to stay on the field—the former has had injury issues since coming into the league. Thus far the injury monster hasn't reared its ugly head for Ivory, who has seen his touch count increase to the detriment of his running mate in that backfield. Ivory saw more carries in New York's first drive last week than Johnson saw the entire game.
Of course, all it took was one blown tackle for Johnson to score a 35-yard touchdown, but alarm bells should be ringing for his owners. The Jets like Ivory more if his touch count is any indication—he certainly looks better regardless—meaning we could see Johnson's touch count hover in the single digits for the foreseeable future.
Kyle Wachtel: Chris Ivory is hands down the best running back on the Jets roster. With that being said, Chris Johnson won't be sent to the bench. The team had a plan in mind when they brought him in here and they won't give up too easily. It also never hurts when a player of Johnson's stature asks for more touches, which is what he has done following this past week. Ivory's injury history is also tough to overlook. Throw in the presence of Bilal Powell, who does everything asked of him, and the fact that the Jets won't have many leads for Ivory to hammer home, it makes Ivory a better sell than hold.
Steve Buzzard: Ivory is clearly the better back at this point and while the Jets have been hesitant to believe this I think they are finally starting to realize it. Last week Ivory not only got the sizeable advantage in carries 17-6 he also got a big advantage in snaps played 58%-28% which was a big change from previous weeks. I don’t think the spread will be quite that big going forward but I think Chris Ivory will make more like top 20 running back going forward whereas Chris Johnson is closer to RB40.
Matt Harmon: Johnson may have been the superior player years ago, but the current renditions of the Jets’ running backs are not even close. Ivory is more determined, powerful and plays smarter. He will be a starting fantasy commodity as long as he’s healthy. Johnson, on the other hand, can be safely dropped during the rash of bye weeks approaching.
Adam Harstad: Yes, Chris Ivory is better than Chris Johnson. It wasn't true from 2008 to 2012, but it was true last year, and it's true again this year. I would expect his role to continue to grow throughout the season as New York runs out of reasons to deny him. Barring injury, I think Chris Johnson is now nothing more than a change-of-pace in that offense.
Ravens wide receivers
Before the season started, most people expected Torrey Smith to be the Ravens' WR1 this season. (Consensus rankings: Torrey Smith WR18, Steve Smith WR53!) Not only has Steve Smith convincingly staked out WR1 honors (YTD WR4), but Torrey Smith has been almost invisible (YTD WR61). Where would you rank Steve Smith on your own Top 200 Forward list? Does Torrey Smith have any value at all at this point, or can people in 12-team leagues with 16-man rosters consider cutting him?
Kyle Wachtel: Just as Cam Newton once revived Steve Smith's career, Joe Flacco has done so again. Now four weeks into the season, the pecking order in Baltimore is clear with the elder Smith leading the way and he's earned himself a spot among the top-36 wide receivers. His current pace is not sustainable though and Torrey Smith, who has finished as a top-24 wide receiver in all three of his NFL seasons, won't completely fall off the map. The younger Smith is a volatile WR4 that could blow up any week.
Andy Hicks: When I did my preseason ranking assessments, Torrey Smith really worried me. His catch percentage was 45%, which was behind the worst of the worst in this area with players like Denarius Moore, Jerome Simpson and Greg Little having a better catch percentage. Little and Simpson aren't on rosters anymore and Moore was a healthy scratch from the last game to give an indication of where Torrey Smith could be headed if he doesn't get better at catching a few more balls. His current eight receptions for 21 targets at a 38% catch percentage is below his abysmal career average
I'm not going to pretend like I was smart enough to drop Torrey Smith down my board and have Steve Smith higher, because like most I assumed that Carolina was looking to the future and dumping a 35 year old receiver who was winding down. Obviously this is a scenario where the Panthers dumped him one year too early rather than one year too late. Smith won't keep this form up all season, but may be good enough to finish as a WR2 by the time we're all said and done. The grass is obviously greener in Baltimore for the punchy one.
As for Torrey Smith, I can't trust him anymore for the reasons I've already outlined. To me he is Devery Henderson in disguise and you just never know from week to week if he'll throw you a 1-7 or a 4-117-1, with the odds being in favor of the former on most weeks.
Steve Buzzard: I have actually been picking up shares of Torrey Smith because he is so cheap right now. In fact I picked him up off waivers in some leagues. I don’t think Torrey Smith is going to come anywhere close to his preseason ranking but I do think he can provide WR4 value rest of the season and will make a fine what-the-heck flex during the bye week blues. He is still playing 77% of the team’s snaps. If Steve Smith slows down at all I think Torrey Smith will end up with 700 yards and a handful of TD’s.
Steve Smith on the other hand is just what I want in a wide receiver as he is a target hog this year and producing great YPR on those targets. I think at his older age he is bound to slow down to some degree but I would like him as a solid WR2 rest of the year. That said, if you can get a WR1 or RB1 for him with this hot start I would be looking to move him.
Matt Harmon: Steve Smith is here to stay. Even though his stat lines won’t always be so bulbous, and his highlight reel so flashy, this is no aberration. We’ve seen time and time again that Joe Flacco will lean hard on a tough, veteran wide receiver. That role belongs to No. 89 this season. I had the highest of hopes for Torrey Smith this year, but it is time to move on. He will have some relevant weeks, but they’ll be extremely unpredictable. I would still stash him on my bench, simply because his deep speed gives him weekly upside if I have to play him in a pinch.
Bengals wide receivers
Marvin Jones is expected to make his season debut this week after recovering from a preseason foot injury. A.J. Green is the team's undisputed top receiver, but Mohamed Sanu has played well, and has been a serviceable fantasy WR3. (Sanu actually has more fantasy points than Green so far, thanks to his passing touchdown.) Do you expect Sanu to hold off Jones as the starter opposite Green? If not, how long do you think it will take before Jones is a worthy WR3-flex starter in 12-team fantasy leagues?
Alex Miglio: If you're going to grab Marvin Jones, do it this week before he catches on.
Jones is a sneaky waiver wire addition heading into Week 5. While Mohamed Sanu may well hold onto that number two job for now, it was Jones' to lose in the past. I don't think Sanu is playing as well as some do—he has been putting up some nice fantasy scores thanks in large part to a couple of nice passes thrown—but his numbers as a receiver have been rather pedestrian. I expect Jones to come in and challenge him for playing time right away, perhaps pushing Sanu into the slot, where the latter spent much of his 2013 season.
Kyle Wachtel: While I agree with Alex that Jones will take back the number two receiver role, I'm not sure there will be enough targets sent his way for anything more than WR4 production with WR3 consideration in the more promising matchups. Sanu's versatility will ensure that he continues to see the field and this offense will be powered by their running game.
Andy Hicks: I agree with Kyle on Marvin Jones, I'm not sure how much use he will be. Coming off a broken foot isn't going to allow for a seamless transition back into a firing Bengals offense. The only use I see for Jones is in performance leagues where his knack of end zone production will pay off in a more likely way. The Bengals now have the luxury of an additional weapon that they don't need to force the ball to. Good luck Patriots.
Steve Buzzard: I agree you should grab Marvin Jones off the waivers now, or a couple of weeks ago if you are in deep leagues. Coming back from such a serious injury it may take a few weeks before he is completely up to speed but I think he could be a starting caliber player for you in the fantasy playoffs when it counts most.
Matt Harmon: Sanu has never impressed me as a wide receiver, but deserves credit for his gadget utility. Unfortunately for him, I think that means Marvin Jones will pass him up sooner rather than later. This passing offense has been severely scaled back from the heavy volume attack that Jay Gruden ran last season. While Jones’ return will help the Bengals, he will not be all that usable in fantasy leagues.
Texans wide receivers
Is DeAndre Hopkins a better NFL receiver than Andre Johnson at this point? Who will have more fantasy points by season's end?
Kyle Wachtel: Andre Johnson remains the number one receiver on this team and his presence is a large reason for DeAndre Hopkins' success. Johnson still leads the team in targets (31) and has nearly as many receptions (22) as Hopkins has targets (24). Hopkins catch-rate of 75% and his touchdown rate (16.7%) are both likely to regress, leaving him as more of a WR3, while Johnson sustains high-end WR2 production.
Andy Hicks: The difference between DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson is the younger player getting into the end zone three times so far. Outside a four year stretch between 2007 and 2010 Johnson has never been a good touchdown accumulator with an average of less than four in his other years. Hopkins isn't a better NFL receiver, but he is definitely a better fantasy prospect right now. Johnson offers good solid WR3 production, while Hopkins is going to rank higher if he can continue making big plays.
Steve Buzzard: I agree completely with Kyla and Andy on this one. Johnson is still a better wide receiver and is making life a lot easier for Hopkins. Andre Johnson is still the target hog but Hopkins may be the bigger TD threat. Both have the potential to end up around a low end WR2 but I am concerned once Arian Foster is healthy again the Texans will want to ride him instead of the pass game limiting both of their upside.
Matt Harmon: I still think Andre Johnson will have the better season, but it will be very close. Hopkins has looked great and is not just hitting on big plays. Johnson will have bigger games when the Texans begin to get deeper into their AFC South schedule. He should feast on the Jaguars defense, and the Colts and Titans do not present much of a challenge either.
Struggling running backs
Doug Martin, Eddie Lacy, LeSean McCoy, and Toby Gerhart are all averaging 3.0 or fewer yards per carry so far this season. Which guys do you expect to find their groove pretty quickly, and which should we be worried about?
Kyle Wachtel: Eddie Lacy has faced an excruciating schedule. Even the Chicago defense is much improved from last season. He remains the workhorse back in one of the NFL's most potent offenses, which should lead to plenty of scoring opportunities and at the very least low-end RB1 value. LeSean McCoy has been a victim of poor offensive line play, but will benefit greatly from the return of RT Lane Johnson this upcoming week. His talent still ranks among the NFL's elite and can be viewed as a high-end RB1. Doug Martin benefited greatly from the struggles of Bobby Rainey, which allowed him to keep his status as the team's unquestioned lead back. However, he has continued to look pedestrian and can't be trusted as anything more than a mid-to-low RB2 until he proves otherwise. It's time to apologize for recommending Toby Gerhart as a breakout player, like many analysts did this offseason, myself included. While the early season ankle injury may have attributed to his struggles, the offensive line play has been horrendous and Gerhart simply isn't talented enough to overcome that. This past weekend, Denard Robinson even received more snaps than Gerhart and may end up leading this committee from here on out.
Andy Hicks: The performance of Toby Gerhart doesn't surprise me in the least. I had him 11 spots behind the staffer who had him second lowest and can honestly say I'm glad at least one of my off season assessments proved spot on. Gerhart is just a bridge running back until the Jaguars get cohesion on offense and can resemble a NFL quality offense. It won't happen this year. The Jaguars are likely to draft a back high next year or wait until 2016 depending on how their rebuilding plan is going.
I talked about Doug Martin a few weeks ago when I was analyzing players who were expected to bounce back from disappointing sophomore seasons. One of my off season projects will be to figure out the bust percentage of the supposed bounce back crew. Martin has an upside of RB2 if we're lucky. Another injury and we are talking about a fluky rookie season.
LeSean McCoy and Eddie Lacy don't worry me yet. Lacy and the Green Bay offense are finding their groove and if we go on previous years, they will find it very soon on all fronts after finding it in the passing game against Chicago. Lacy is outperforming his rookie production to date, although it must be said he missed a game or two last year at the same stage. McCoy looked great in weeks one and two, before stinking in weeks three and four. Chip Kelly is innovative enough to figure out how to use McCoy after the Eagles moribund performance against the 49ers. I'm still confident that McCoy and Lacy can still deliver RB1 production by the end of the year, but their owners need to have a backup plan should these units continue to fail to deliver.
Steve Buzzard: In order from least concerned to most, McCoy is the one that I am least worried about. I think a good portion of McCoy’s struggles are due to the offensive line. However, I am not willing to put all of them on offensive line problems since Sproles has been significantly better at 6.7 yards per carry (admittedly on a small sample size). Additionally, McCoy’s YPR is sitting at a career low. But I think the Eagles offense will continue to perform well so I see McCoy bouncing back.
Eddie Lacy would be my second least concerned because he has arguably faced the most difficult run schedule this year in the Seahawks, Jets, Lions, and Bears which collectively are averaging 3.5 YPA which is 0.7 less than the league average. As the schedule gets easier his YPA should increase. However, that didn’t happen last week against the Bears and his career YPA isn’t great so I have some concerns.
Martin and Gerhart I am fully concerned with. Martin I was never a big believer in and thought most of his reputation has been built off a few big games. But the problem for both of these guys is they are on awful teams that are going to be behind a lot, don’t have offensive weapons surrounding them, and won’t score a lot. I would be looking to trade both if possible.
Matt Harmon: LeSean McCoy will find his groove again, but it might take a bit of time. His health seems to be an under the radar concern, as there is talk of a lingering toe injury. One would assume that will improve with a little time, but injures are dicey. The real issue with the Eagles running game has been the rapid collapse of the offensive line. This unit collapsed from being one of the best in the game, to a complete mess in just a span of a few weeks. The good news here is that the revitalization of the unit has already begun. Lane Johnson returning to his right tackle post after an early season suspension should begin to plug holes. Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce won’t be back right away, but they will hit the filed later this season. All hope is not lost for McCoy, but Eddie Lacy has a safer outlook for the next few weeks. McCoy’s buy-low window will extend a touch longer than Lacy’s.
Doug Martin and Toby Gerhart both worry me. Their talent level is questionable, at best. Compounded with the fact that they run behind poor offensive lines, and these are two backs I don’t want re-draft shares of.
Adam Harstad: Yards per carry is crazy, especially with small sample sizes. It's going to vary a lot. Last year through three games, Maurice Jones-Drew was averaging 2.5 yards per carry. Over the rest of the season, he averaged 3.7. Joique Bell went from 3.2 to 4.2. Chris Ivory jumped from 2.8 all the way up to 4.90. C.J. Spiller jumped from 3.5 to 5.2. I won't say that having a low ypc is necessarily a good thing, but it's not an intrinsically concerning thing all by itself. If I expected a guy to be good before the season, and he had a low ypc early in the year, I'd still expect him to be good going forward- though perhaps a little bit less so.
While the low ypc isn't all that worrying, the reasons behind it can be. LeSean McCoy's ypc is low because his offensive line is currently composed of baling wire and broken dreams. That's something that will improve a bit in the coming weeks, and McCoy is the type of back who should be able to find success with even a bare modicum of help. Eddie Lacy's offensive line has also been pretty poor to this point, though it was pretty poor last year and Lacy still managed to excel. He's another guy who is talented enough that I'd expect him to get things together.
Doug Martin is someone who I'm a bit more concerned about, because we're getting a larger and larger body of evidence that's causing me to question just how good he really is. We've seen his backups often look as good, (or better), in the same offense. That's concerning. I still think he's a pretty good RB, but needless to say, I'm proceeding with caution.
Toby Gerhart I expected to struggle, so to me his low ypc is just another sign that he's in for a long year. Maurice Jones-Drew is a fantastic back who led the league in rushing as recently as 2011 and had 4.6 career ypc as recently as 2012. He was awful in that Jacksonville offense last year. Gerhart is a bit younger, but I honestly didn't expect him to find much room in the same situation. So far, he hasn't.
QB-WR connections
Teddy Bridgewater and Jarius Wright seemed to have a strong connection on Sunday, perhaps owing to their practice time together on the second team. Likewise, Matt McGloin and Andre Holmes seem to have a strong connection as well, dating back to the end of last season. Holmes had averaged only three targets per game in the first three weeks with Derek Carr at quarterback; but last week McGloin came off the bench and targeted Holmes seven times in under 20 minutes of game time. Should fantasy owners be rushing to pick up Wright and Holmes? Or do these types of apparent connections tend to prove illusory?
Kyle Wachtel: Jarius Wright won't be passing Greg Jennings or Cordarrelle Patterson on the depth chart, which means his ceiling is limited to being the number three receiver for a team that's expected to lean on the running game with a rookie quarterback. It'd be an unfulfilling journey to chase Wright's Week 4 success. However, the Oakland receiving corps is far from settled. There's a clear path for Andre Holmes to ascend to the number two option in the passing game, which may have already been accomplished, and he could very well settle in as a WR4 for a team that will likely be playing from behind in every game this season
Andy Hicks: Last year we were talking about players like Rishard Matthews in a similar vein. They have a 11-120-2 week and we all think we've found the next breakout receiver. Very rarely do we hit a Victor Cruz or going back even further a Marcus Robinson who lights up the waiver wire with WR1 potential.
In the case of Jarius Wright it was against the Falcons. Let's see him do it against a real defense.
Andre Holmes does have the size to be a breakout receiver, but give the turmoil surrounding the Raiders I hardly expect anything reliable to pop up in that offense, especially if Matt McGloin is starting.
The eternal optimist in me says that both are definitely worth adding if you have the roster space, but don't blow your budget if you have a blind bidding process to worry about.
Steve Buzzard: I think Holmes in particular is a good pickup not necessarily because of his connection with McGloin but because Denarius Moore was a healthy inactive and Streater is still recovering from injury. I actually rolled him out in some daily games because of that opportunity. Since he performed well enough with that opportunity I could see him earning more playing time going forward. Jarius Wright I am not so comfortable with since Bridgewater will quickly learn that Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings are better options. In both cases I wouldn’t spend much in the way of FAAB for them since they are on such poor offenses.
Matt Harmon: The backup-to-backup connection theory needs to be one that fantasy owners give more credence to going forward. I think both Holmes and Wright hold a bit of legitimacy. Wright has a quarterback who will play the rest of the season, given Teddy Bridgewater’s status as a first rounder. Holmes won’t be catching passes from Matt McGloin forever, but is the more physically gifted player. Each player has bench type fantasy value going forward, with a little upside.
Adam Harstad: Less than his strong connection with Teddy Bridgewater, what interests me most about Wright is his strong connection with Norv Turner. Before the season, a lot of digital ink was spilled about how Norv Turner's offense have historically revolved around a great deep threat posting huge yard-per-reception totals, (see also: Michael Irvin, Vincent Jackson, Josh Gordon). Most of this focus was pointed at Cordarrelle Patterson and how he was similar to and different from the typical "Norv Turner WR". Less attention was paid to Wright, who is pretty clearly the best deep threat in that offense right now. I'm not saying that Jarius Wright could be the next Josh Gordon... but maybe he could be the next Malcom Floyd. Floyd was a strong WR3 and even a passable WR2 for the better part of three years under Norv Turner. I wouldn't say I'd be rushing to pick up Wright, but he's someone where, at the end of the season, it wouldn't really surprise me if he'd managed to sneakily put up 800-900 yards and 5-6 touchdowns. Guys like that won't win any leagues for you, but they'll certainly help keep you afloat through injuries and byes.
Eddie Royal
The four touchdowns in four games scored by Eddie Royal are, we can all agree, a bit fluky. But beyond just the touchdowns, he's actually leading the entire team in targets. Will he have sustainable fantasy value over the rest of the season?
Kyle Wachtel: Eddie Royal is here to stay for the 2014 season. Without Ryan Mathews, the running game has been atrocious and Royal's role in the passing game is set up well to benefit from the absence of Danny Woodhead. He's a safe bet to play around 75% of San Diego's snaps through the remainder of the season and it's become a real possibility for him to stay on track for the 68 receptions and 944 yards that he's on pace for now. The 12 touchdowns on just 64 receptions over the past two seasons is also making his knack for finding the end zone harder to discount as a fluke. He's a WR4 with increased value in PPR leagues. He can even be started as a WR3 this weekend in an enticing matchup versus the Jets.
Andy Hicks: Four touchdowns in four games is nothing. Last year he had five in his first two. At least with Eddie Royal we have some basis to analyze his future performance and he followed that five TD explosion last year with reliable, but not fantasy worthy numbers for the rest of the year. Roughly three or four catches for about 40-50 yards a game, with one touchdown every five weeks after that. Given his size (5-9 and 184), we should never expect touchdowns or 100 yard receiving games. Outside his now forgotten rookie year in 2008 he has only had one other 100 yard game in 70 appearances. He'll be a WR3 or Flex kind of player that may do better in the odd week. Don't expect him to keep this up or continue to lead his team in targets.
Steve Buzzard: I think this year’s Eddie Royal is a little different than last year. As mentioned he is leading the team in targets with 29 to Keenan Allen’s 28. He is also playing 70% of the team’s snaps so far this season and is trending up. With Danny Woodhead on the IR and Phillip Rivers loving the short passing game I could see Royal filling some of that void. I don’t think he will reach the 980 yards he had his rookie season but I think he will top every year since then and end up around 750 yards. Obviously the big thing that I expect to regress is his touchdown rate. If you are in a deep league I would pick up Royal as bench depth or possible WR4 starting caliber. Just don’t expect big things.
Matt Harmon: Kyle brings ups some great points about Royal being slightly for real. It may be annoying, and baffling that Royal is this productive, but he is. We have two years’ worth of evidence suggesting that Mike McCoy trusts, and likes, this player. Royal provides that reliable extension of the running game that San Diego needs with so many backfield injuries. Additionally, he provides them a little more than Donald Brown does.
That will do it for this edition of the Footballguys Roundtable. Please join us again next week.