Tips and Picks, Divisional Weekend

John Lee's Tips and Picks, Divisional Weekend John Lee Published 01/10/2020

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

TIPS...

In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.

...AND PICKS

Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.

QUARTERBACKS

NAME OPP. SALARY PROJ. % CASH? GPP STARS NOTES
Ryan Tannehill @BAL $5,400 7% - «««« The Derrick Henry fade mandates ownership of Tannehill.
Patrick Mahomes II HOU $7,500 22% - «««« Discounted from Lamar with higher team total.
Jimmy Garoppolo MIN $5,600 13% Yes ««« Underowned because stack partners are not obvious.
Deshaun Watson @KC $6,700 12% - «« Gamescript could create 35+ pass attempts for Watson.
Russell Wilson @GB $6,600 11% - «« Questions remain in the backfield. Momentum from Philly.
Lamar Jackson TEN $8,400 18% Yes « Price hurts, but no higher upside or better matchup.
Kirk Cousins @SF $5,700 6% - « Small piece, but overexposed to Dalvin.
Aaron Rodgers SEA $6,500 10% - « Here for the GB team stacks: Davante and AJones.

QB OVERVIEW: The fantasy value that Derrick Henry has delivered of late is unsustainable. In his past 7 starts, Henry has averaged 6.2 yards per carry and has scored 11 touchdowns, silly numbers that are largely supported by poor defenses and a dedication to the run by the Titans. Against the Ravens, it will be difficult to feed Henry 30+ times (as the Titans have done over the past 2 weeks) and Ryan Tannehill could go underowned as a result. The matchup against one of the league's best secondaries is daunting, but Vegas oddsmakers are projecting the Titans to score nearly 20 points and if they manage to collect 3 touchdowns through the air, Tannehill will have easily reached GPP value at his price point and low implied ownership. For cash games, feel free to roll out Lamar Jackson in that same game if you can afford his crazy-high salary at $8.4K; the Titans offer little resistance against the pass and Jackson brings all the upside via his quickness on the ground, both of which create a substantial floor for the likely MVP. Alternatively, Jimmy Garoppolo's price tag is low enough at $5.6K that you can slot him in as a cash game quarterback on this short slate; Jimmy G has a series of solid, if unspectacular, receivers who can tally yardage and scores to substantiate his reasonable $5.6K salary. Lastly, there is plenty of reason to target quarterbacks from the game in Kansas City that features plenty of talent on offense and questions abound on defense. Patrick Mahomes II ($7.5K) will be the slate favorite against the Texans, who allowed Josh Allen to collect 27.4 DK points last week and Deshaun Watson ($6.7K) should be throwing throughout this game to keep pace with the aforementioned Mahomes.

RUNNING BACKS

NAME OPP. SALARY PROJ. % CASH? GPP STARS NOTES
Damien Williams HOU $6,000 46% Yes «««« He might be locked into 100% of my lineups this weekend.
Dalvin Cook @SF $8,000 29% Yes «««« Gamescript is unfavorable, but offense runs through him.
Aaron Jones SEA $7,400 31% Yes ««« 50 touches in past 2 games. 1st option in GB offense.
Raheem Mostert MIN $5,800 26% - «« Minny has given up monster games to RB recently.
Duke Johnson Jr @KC $4,700 11% - «« If trailing, Duke could catch 6+ passes versus KC.
Marshawn Lynch @GB $4,800 12% - « Carroll committed to giving BeastMode more this week.
Derrick Henry @BAL $8,200 23% - « Possible complete fade. His recent run is unsustainable.

RB OVERVIEW: The poster child of Tips and Picks this week, Damien Williams will likely be in 100% of my lineups on this Divisional weekend. DraftKings did a tremendous job tightening up salaries, but appear to have overlooked Williams, who has dominated the Chiefs' marketshare out of the backfield since returning from injury in Week #16. The matchup against the Texans would have been better without J.J. Watt, who returned last week, but still stands out due to volume, implied gamescript, and overall value (projections versus salary), which makes Williams the play of the week for this column. Thereafter, both Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones are solid selections for all formats because of their gamescript-proof usage and overall skill sets; Cook is an excellent receiver out the backfield, as is Jones, which enhances their floor and upside on DraftKings' full-PPR scoring format. If salary savings are needed, Duke Johnson Jr and Marshawn Lynch become intriguing options for tournaments for different reasons. Duke would absorb a pass-catching role and usurp the majority of opportunity out of the Texans backfield over Carlos Hyde, who has mustered more than one target only twice this season. Meanwhile, Marshawn Lynch is a GPP option because of his redzone prowess and Pete Carroll's documented commitment to feed him more in this week's matchup against the Packers' 23rd-ranked DVOA rush defense.

WIDE RECEIVERS

NAME OPP. SALARY PROJ. % CASH? GPP STARS NOTES
Tyreek Hill HOU $7,600 27% Yes «««« Slow HOU DBs have no chance containing Hill's speed.
Tyler Lockett @GB $6,600 15% Yes «««« Underowned after big day for DK last week. Solid play.
Stefon Diggs @SF $5,600 21% Yes Photos provided by Imagn Images
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