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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. Footballguys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
TIPS...
In order to help you build winning rosters, let's walk through some of the observations that I have made while doing my research for DraftKings this week. As you build out your lineups on DraftKings, try to consider the following commentary, which revolves around game strategy and how we will want to take advantage of what the masses are doing when they construct their own lineups.
...AND PICKS
Let's take a deeper look into some of the players who I will be targeting for my cash game and tournament rosters this weekend. A short summary follows each respective table to fill in the gaps that led to the respective recommendations; that text represents only an overview of the methodology and rationale that goes into each recommendation.
QUARTERBACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Ryan Tannehill | @BAL | $5,400 | 7% | - | «««« | The Derrick Henry fade mandates ownership of Tannehill. |
Patrick Mahomes II | HOU | $7,500 | 22% | - | «««« | Discounted from Lamar with higher team total. |
Jimmy Garoppolo | MIN | $5,600 | 13% | Yes | ««« | Underowned because stack partners are not obvious. |
Deshaun Watson | @KC | $6,700 | 12% | - | «« | Gamescript could create 35+ pass attempts for Watson. |
Russell Wilson | @GB | $6,600 | 11% | - | «« | Questions remain in the backfield. Momentum from Philly. |
Lamar Jackson | TEN | $8,400 | 18% | Yes | « | Price hurts, but no higher upside or better matchup. |
Kirk Cousins | @SF | $5,700 | 6% | - | « | Small piece, but overexposed to Dalvin. |
Aaron Rodgers | SEA | $6,500 | 10% | - | « | Here for the GB team stacks: Davante and AJones. |
QB OVERVIEW: The fantasy value that Derrick Henry has delivered of late is unsustainable. In his past 7 starts, Henry has averaged 6.2 yards per carry and has scored 11 touchdowns, silly numbers that are largely supported by poor defenses and a dedication to the run by the Titans. Against the Ravens, it will be difficult to feed Henry 30+ times (as the Titans have done over the past 2 weeks) and Ryan Tannehill could go underowned as a result. The matchup against one of the league's best secondaries is daunting, but Vegas oddsmakers are projecting the Titans to score nearly 20 points and if they manage to collect 3 touchdowns through the air, Tannehill will have easily reached GPP value at his price point and low implied ownership. For cash games, feel free to roll out Lamar Jackson in that same game if you can afford his crazy-high salary at $8.4K; the Titans offer little resistance against the pass and Jackson brings all the upside via his quickness on the ground, both of which create a substantial floor for the likely MVP. Alternatively, Jimmy Garoppolo's price tag is low enough at $5.6K that you can slot him in as a cash game quarterback on this short slate; Jimmy G has a series of solid, if unspectacular, receivers who can tally yardage and scores to substantiate his reasonable $5.6K salary. Lastly, there is plenty of reason to target quarterbacks from the game in Kansas City that features plenty of talent on offense and questions abound on defense. Patrick Mahomes II ($7.5K) will be the slate favorite against the Texans, who allowed Josh Allen to collect 27.4 DK points last week and Deshaun Watson ($6.7K) should be throwing throughout this game to keep pace with the aforementioned Mahomes.
RUNNING BACKS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Damien Williams | HOU | $6,000 | 46% | Yes | «««« | He might be locked into 100% of my lineups this weekend. |
Dalvin Cook | @SF | $8,000 | 29% | Yes | «««« | Gamescript is unfavorable, but offense runs through him. |
Aaron Jones | SEA | $7,400 | 31% | Yes | ««« | 50 touches in past 2 games. 1st option in GB offense. |
Raheem Mostert | MIN | $5,800 | 26% | - | «« | Minny has given up monster games to RB recently. |
Duke Johnson Jr | @KC | $4,700 | 11% | - | «« | If trailing, Duke could catch 6+ passes versus KC. |
Marshawn Lynch | @GB | $4,800 | 12% | - | « | Carroll committed to giving BeastMode more this week. |
Derrick Henry | @BAL | $8,200 | 23% | - | « | Possible complete fade. His recent run is unsustainable. |
RB OVERVIEW: The poster child of Tips and Picks this week, Damien Williams will likely be in 100% of my lineups on this Divisional weekend. DraftKings did a tremendous job tightening up salaries, but appear to have overlooked Williams, who has dominated the Chiefs' marketshare out of the backfield since returning from injury in Week #16. The matchup against the Texans would have been better without J.J. Watt, who returned last week, but still stands out due to volume, implied gamescript, and overall value (projections versus salary), which makes Williams the play of the week for this column. Thereafter, both Dalvin Cook and Aaron Jones are solid selections for all formats because of their gamescript-proof usage and overall skill sets; Cook is an excellent receiver out the backfield, as is Jones, which enhances their floor and upside on DraftKings' full-PPR scoring format. If salary savings are needed, Duke Johnson Jr and Marshawn Lynch become intriguing options for tournaments for different reasons. Duke would absorb a pass-catching role and usurp the majority of opportunity out of the Texans backfield over Carlos Hyde, who has mustered more than one target only twice this season. Meanwhile, Marshawn Lynch is a GPP option because of his redzone prowess and Pete Carroll's documented commitment to feed him more in this week's matchup against the Packers' 23rd-ranked DVOA rush defense.
WIDE RECEIVERS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Tyreek Hill | HOU | $7,600 | 27% | Yes | «««« | Slow HOU DBs have no chance containing Hill's speed. |
Tyler Lockett | @GB | $6,600 | 15% | Yes | «««« | Underowned after big day for DK last week. Solid play. |
Stefon Diggs | @SF | $5,600 | 21% | Yes | «««« | Salary is attractive after Thielen's big day. Rebound. |
Will Fuller | @KC | $5,000 | 14% | - | ««« | Changes dynamic of Texans offense. Big-play ability. |
Davante Adams | SEA | $7,800 | 26% | Yes | ««« | Tough to pass on him: the Michael Thomas of Green Bay. |
DeAndre Hopkins | @KC | $7,400 | 22% | - | «« | Prefer Stills/Fuller at lower ownership in + gamescript. |
A.J. Brown | @BAL | $6,000 | 21% | - | «« | Rough on-paper matchup but price/gamescript help upside. |
Kenny Stills | @KC | $4,800 | 7% | - | «« | GPP-special: Goose-egg or 100 yards. Pick your poison. |
Emmanuel Sanders | MIN | $5,400 | 19% | - | «« | Plus personnel matchup. Boom/bust since arriving in SF. |
Sammy Watkins | HOU | $4,300 | 24% | - | «« | Ownership is stupid-high for his 2019 performance. |
Allen Lazard | SEA | $4,500 | 15% | - | «« | Lower-owned, lower-priced pivot from Adams. |
Deebo Samuel | MIN | $5,200 | 27% | - | « | Tough to justify. Cheaper Sanders = better play. |
DK Metcalf | @GB | $6,800 | 10% | - | « | Week 18 hero is too pricey. Delicate pass. |
Tajae Sharpe | @BAL | $3,500 | 4% | - | « | Ravens' soft spot on D = slot receivers. |
Kendrick Bourne | MIN | $3,700 | 1% | - | « | Cannot ignore TD prowess late in season. Cheap. |
Marquise Brown | TEN | $4,400 | 25% | - | « | Crowd fave gets nice spot vs. susceptible secondary. |
Adam Thielen | @SF | $6,200 | 9% | - | « | Questions linger about his ankle. Prefer Diggs here. |
WR OVERVIEW: Diversity can be found at the wide receiver position on Divisional weekend, which creates some unique opportunity for tournament play. Scanning the list of "approved" players, Kenny Stills stands out as the top option who is projected to be owned in single-digit quantities. Coming off a 4/46/0 weekend as the WR2 for the Texans, most will discount Stills' ability to deliver on a weekend where Will Fuller is active, but the gamescript sets up well for all Texans' receivers and we should not overlook the fact that Will Fuller's presence is a "tide that lifts all ships." For cash games, any combination of Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, Stefon Diggs, and/or Davante Adams is an excellent combination of high-floor, high-upside plays that should be considered. Salary will be a factor and you may be forced to punt a wide receiver to get the others into your lineup; if that happens, Marquise Brown is the borderline cash game play to help save salary to accommodate those other exorbitant salaries. As deeper GPP flyers, Tajae Sharpe and Kendrick Bourne are enticing possibilities. Sharpe gets the softest matchup out of the slot against the Ravens' shutdown secondary and offers attractive pricing at only $3.7K, while Bourne is a touchdown magnet whose redzone prowess was evident on the second half of the 2019 season (5 touchdowns in 8 games).
TIGHT ENDS
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Jonnu Smith | @BAL | $3,400 | 5% | - | «««« | Projections place him here despite harsh matchup. |
George Kittle | MIN | $6,200 | 26% | Yes | ««« | If he were a WR, he would be $1.5K more expensive. |
Travis Kelce | HOU | $6,400 | 29% | Yes | ««« | See notes for George Kittle (above). |
Mark Andrews | TEN | $5,600 | 15% | - | «« | Tough to justify price vs. Kittle/Kelce. |
Jacob Hollister | @GB | $4,000 | 10% | - | «« | Punt option. Needs to score to justify roster position. |
TE OVERVIEW: Easy to start with the obvious: Get as much George Kittle and Travis Kelce as you possibly can across all formats this weekend. Kelce and Kittle finished as the first- and third-highest scoring tight ends on the 2019 season (Darren Waller was second) and bring a solid scoring floor with significant upside to your rosters on an otherwise limited slate. After crunching the numbers, Jonnu Smith was the surprise 'sharp' pick at the position for this weekend. His implied ownership is too low given his role in a Titans offense that is expected to throw the ball often in a pass-heavy gamescript. Smith' usage in the Tennessee passing game has been largely unpredictable over the back-half of the season, but the overall value is too attractive to pass up at his price and ownership; he should be owned at similar levels to Kittle and Kelce in your GPP portfolio for these reasons.
TEAM DEFENSES
NAME | OPP. | SALARY | PROJ. % | CASH? | GPP STARS | NOTES |
Packers | SEA | $2,800 | 22% | Yes | «««« | SEA barely beat a battered Eagles team last week. |
49ers | MIN | $3,000 | 17% | Yes | ««« | Could extra rest restore early-season defensive prowess? |
Vikings | @SF | $2,700 | 9% | - | «« | Price makes them interesting. Held their own vs. NO. |
Chiefs | HOU | $3,200 | 15% | - | « | A bit too pricey for quality of D. Underweight on field. |
Ravens | TEN | $3,600 | 11% | - | « | Salary is tough to justify versus other positions. |
TEAM DEF OVERVIEW: The Green Bay Packers will be in at least one-third of my GPP lineups this weekend because they are rested, playing at Lambeau, and face a Seahawks team that squeaked by an Eagles squad of backups last weekend. The Pack lost only one home game all season and should be expected to deliver solid fantasy production against a Seattle offense that was forced to sign Marshawn Lynch from retirement late in the season due to injuries in their backfield. Elsewhere, it would not be surprising if the Vikings flailed after a big road win last week in New Orleans. Minnesota will go on the road for the second consecutive week against a rested Niners squad, who are returning several key defensive players at just the right time; look for San Francisco to come out fired up in this spot against a Vikings team that could fall flat after a surprise win on the road just last week. Lastly, do not make the mistake of going too heavy on any singular defense on a limited slate--get exposure to multiple teams at percentages that align with your projections because a random pick-six could be the difference between cashing and not on a slate where overlap is so prominent at the skill positions.