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Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 17

The Top 5 Player Props on Monkey Knife Fight

By Dan Hindery
December 31, 2020
Monkey Knife Fight Player Props, Week 17
Photo: Denny Medley, USA Today Sports

Introduction

Monkey Knife Fight is one of the fastest growing daily fantasy sites and offers a unique product that is a lot of fun. There are no salary caps and you do not have to compete against DFS pros. Instead, you simply find the combination of player props you are most confident in and pick more or less . Since each combination (two or more players) are playing in the same game, we can use correlation to our advantage. For example, if we know that one starting quarterback throws for more yards than projected, the opposing quarterback is more likely to throw for more yards also.

In this weekly article, we will count down the five best props of the week, saving the best for last.

Looking back at last week

Last Week: -1 unit

Overall Season (+34 units)

We had a losing week, hitting one of our five parlays. We came within 0.5 Kenyan Drake fantasy points of another winning week.

Hits

  • We have been riding David Montgomery lately and he rewarded us again, hitting the over on his rushing yardage prop (74.5). An early week lock in on the under for Gardner Minshew paid off, though it wouldn’t have mattered as Mike Glennon went well under the passing total as well.

Misses

  • We were on the wrong side of the passing over/unders in the Friday night Saints game. Was on the right track in thinking Saints would be run-heavy, but Brees still hit his yardage over.
  • Noted that over 11.5 fantasy points for Jeffery Wilson was the favorite prop of the week and he absolutely smashed it but had to parlay it with Kenyan Drake and took the under on 12.5 fantasy points. He ended up with 13, so a narrow loss.
  • Had a split on the Dolphins/Raiders game. Took the over on 11.5 fantasy points for Nelson Agholor (who scored 26.5) but underestimated how quickly Myles Gaskin would take back the lead role from Salvon Ahmed.
  • We split on Sunday night. Aaron Jones went over 80.5 rushing yards but we missed on Derrick Henry, whose 98 rushing yards came up short of his 115.5-yard over/under.

Number 5: Big Game Stars

Davante Adams over 97.5 receiving yards
David Montgomery over 76.5 rushing yards

    • One of the keys this week is trying to focus in on games where both teams have something to play for still. This is a prime example. The Bears can clinch a playoff spot with a win. The Packers can clinch a bye and home-field advantage throughout. Without a doubt, the stars are going to play in this one.
    • We will keep riding the hot hand of Montgomery, who has seemingly been featured here every week for a month.
    • Montgomery has three straight games with 95+ yards and five straight games of 72+. Over that five-game stretch, he is second in the entire NFL with 529 rushing yards (105.8 per game).
    • Montgomery kicked off his hot stretch with 103 rushing yards (and 143 yards in total) against these same Packers.
    • At the start of Montgomery’s hot streak, he was getting yardage on chunk plays despite mediocre usage. In the past couple of weeks, he has seen a huge increase in carries. He had his two highest carry total games of the season in Weeks 15 and 16, when he had 32 and 23, respectively.
    • There is not much that needs to be said about Adams, who is in the midst of one of the best wide receiver seasons in recent memory.
    • He has gone for 115+ receiving yards in 3-of-4 and has topped 100 yards in 7-of-12 full games this season.
  • Adams is getting massive volume. In those 12 full games played, he saw 10+ targets in 10 of them and at least 8 targets in every single full game.

Number 4: Momentum

Nelson Agholor over 64.5 receiving yards
Noah Fant over 50.5 receiving yards

    • This is our only play this week that features two teams with nothing to play for. We like the individual motivation for these two players enough to play this one anyway.
    • Nelson Agholor took a one-year prove-it deal with Oakland and is going to cash in handsomely in the offseason after putting together a career year. He has 47-839-8 on the season and has clearly emerged as the Raiders WR1.
    • Over the last three weeks, Agholor has 304 receiving yards on 23 targets and has back-to-back 100+ yard receiving games with Derek Carr.
    • The season-long pass defense numbers for the Broncos have minimal use given that this secondary looks nothing like it did early in the season. Top cornerback A.J. Bouye is suspended. Three Broncos cornerbacks have torn ACLS in the second half of the season (Kevin Toliver, Essang Bassey, and Duke Dawson). Plus, Bryce Callahan looks to be out again with a foot injury. The Broncos are limping across the finish line.
    • Noah Fant’s emergence in recent weeks has been one of the few bright spots for the Broncos. For a tight end who just recently turned 23-years old, his production at a notoriously difficult position to make the NFL transition bodes well for his future.
  • With his ankle looking healthy, Fant has seen a whopping 20 targets over the past two weeks.
  • Fant has back-to-back games of 65+ receiving yards and has emerged of late as Drew Lock’s favorite target.

Number 3: Low Number Value

Brandon Allen over 198.5 passing yards
Lamar Jackson over 180.5 passing yards

    • In today’s NFL, passing totals this low are always worth considering regardless of the teams or quarterbacks involved.
    • Brandon Allen is playing with confidence after throwing for 371 yards last week against the Texans. He has a great chance at throwing for 200+ in this matchup.
  • The Bengals are a bad football team but bad Bengals teams have historically shown up late in the season to play spoiler (and decrease the team’s draft capital).
  • This is a massively important game for the Ravens who will be treating this like a playoff game. Win and they are in the playoffs. Lose and their odds of making it in drop to just 39%.
  • The Bengals pass defense has been better in the second half but still gave up 324 yards to Deshaun Watson last week.
  • Lamar Jackson has thrust for 426 yards in his last two starts despite the Ravens playing with big leads. If we like Allen to have a respectable performance here, then odds are good Jackson will also have to throw enough to at least top 180.5 passing yards.

Number 2: Playing the Slots

Chris Godwin over 12.5 fantasy points
Russell Gage over 10.5 fantasy points

    • On the surface, Tampa Bay does not have much to play for. The Saints have already clinched the NFC South and the Buccaneers have already clinched a Wild Card. However, a win would lock up the #5 seed for Tamp, which is big this year given that the NFC East winner is going to be the #4 seed.
    • Godwin is coming off of a nine target game against Detroit and has scored touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, including in a Week 15 win over these same Falcons.
    • The Buccaneers have one of the highest team totals on this slate of games (28.5) and the offense seems to be rounding into shape at the perfect time for a deep playoff run.
    • Russell Gage has seen 30 targets over the last four weeks and looks like the clear WR2 when Julio Jones is sidelined.
    • Tampa Bay has even vulnerable against quicker slot wide receivers. It was not surprising to see Gage post a 5-68-1 line (17.8 fantasy points) against this same defense two weeks ago.
  • The game script, with the Falcons 6.5-point underdogs, is likely to lead to Atlanta playing behind. A pass-heavy approach against this stout Tampa run defense is especially likely on Sunday. In the last matchup two weeks ago, Matt Ryan threw the ball 49 times.

Number 1: Defense in Primetime

Alex Smith under 242.5 passing yards
Jalen Hurts under 223.5 passing yards

    • We are going with a correlation play here and banking on this game being relatively slow and low-scoring. It has a very low 43.5-point game total, so this is the type of game where targeting unders makes good sense.
    • This is a huge game with a playoff berth on the line for Washington, so it is not surprising that Alex Smith is going to try to play on one leg. With limited mobility, he is going to be a sitting duck for a Philadelphia pass rush that ranks 5th in the NFL with 46 sacks.
    • Washington coach Ron Rivera noted that without star wide receiver Terry McLaurin, Carolina "condensed" its pass coverage and jumped all underneath routes. "No one was truly honoring the verticals," Rivera said. "When you have Terry out there with his speed and his ability to get vertical very quickly, you have to honor it. You can’t add safeties into the run game consistently. You can’t drop these guys in to play the underneath coverage consistently knowing there’s that vertical threat. That’s what you miss when you don’t have a Terry McLaurin out there."
    • McLaurin is questionable for Sunday night and even if he plays is unlikely to be himself trying to play with a high ankle spread.
    • Jalen Hurts has the toughest matchup of his young career. He is facing a Washington defense that is giving up just 198 passing yards per game (2nd best in the NFL) and has notched 44 sacks (6th most).
Tags:Analysis

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