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Buy Low
Stefon Diggs (WR-BUF) - It’s only a matter of time before Diggs has a massive game to relieve the worries of folks who built their fantasy team around him. Josh Allen is hot and the Bills get the Texans, Chiefs, and Titans over the next three weeks. See if you can get him at a discount from the lofty price he cost in drafts after delivering titles for some with a massive Week 16 last year.
Leonard Fournette (RB-TB) - Ronald Jones II has basically played himself out of any chance to be the lead back for Tampa, and Giovani Bernard got hurt scoring his garbage time touchdown last week. That leaves Fournette, who is likely to get rolling this week against the Patriots as Bill Belichick knows the value of intentionally leaving the box light and inducing a strong passing game into running the ball. It’s also just a matter of time before the pendulum swings back and this high-scoring offense actually scores a few on the ground, which will almost certainly go to Fournette. His value is laughably low for being the best back in one of the best offenses.
Jonathan Taylor (RB-IND) - Taylor’s fantasy teams are starting to get skeptical about his value now that Nyheim Hines outsnapped and outproduced him last week, but the Colts should double down on their reliance on Taylor if they are smart with Carson Wentz playing on two bum ankles and the Colts facing the Dolphins, who were gashed by Peyton Barber for over 100 yards last week.
Joe Mixon (RB-JAX) - Mixon had three scores and 181 total yards against the Jaguars last year. The Bengals have scored 8 of their 9 touchdowns through the air, which should even out over the course of the year and reveal more value for Mixon than we’ve seen over the first three weeks.
Ty’Son Williams (RB-BAL) - Williams has consistently looked like the best healthy back on the Ravens roster, and they probably regret going away from him last week in the narrow win over the Lions. They should get Nick Boyle back soon, which will jump start the running game, and the team won’t want to subject Lamar Jackson to as much punishment as he has been taking since he put the offense on his shoulders. Williams might be free on your waiver wire right now.
Darrell Henderson, Sony Michel (RB-LAR) - The Rams offense looks like one of the best in the league and they are about to head into the soft underbelly of their schedule against Arizona, Seattle, the New York Giants, Detroit, Houston, and Tennessee. The offense should create a ton of scoring opportunities and at least a couple of those games look like potential blowouts with a lot of second half running opportunity. Henderson should return this week, but Michel looked more than capable last week despite being held in check by a tough Bucs run defense. This should be a very productive backfield over the next month and half or more.
Buy High
Jakobi Meyers (WR-NE) - Meyers had a strong 9-94 game last week, but he could just be getting started after James White went down for the year. The loss of White deprives Mac Jones of one of his favorite high percentage targets, so it only makes sense that some of those targets go to Meyers. Jones is erring on the side of being conservative and passing up downfield plays for safe short and intermediate passes, which is where Meyers does most of his damage.
Odell Beckham (WR-CLE) - Beckham had a strong return to the lineup, showing his usual body control and sticky hands, and we have to assume he will only get better as he puts more time between himself and ACL surgery. The Browns defense has been easy to solve before they faced the Bears “offense” last week, so expect the team to have to lean on the pass and Beckham more than anticipated. The Vikings corners are the weak spot of their defense, so this could be a blowup week for Beckham.
Sell High
Najee Harris (RB-PIT) - Harris had an absurd 14 catches on a day when Ben Roethlisberger threw an absurd 58 times while he was missing two of his top three receivers. Juju Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson both returned to practice this week, so Harris isn’t going to see that volume again vs. Green Bay, but he also isn’t going to see much room to run. There’s a lot of evidence that the Steelers offense is going to be one of the worst in the league, so maybe in this case, volume is not king.
Jalen Hurts (QB-PHI) - Hurts may still find ways to put up solid fantasy numbers while the team and offense is performing poorly and he is not showing improvement as a passer within structure or while the game is on the line, but with a crumbling offensive line, it could all come crashing down at any time. At some point, the team may turn to Joe Flacco, and opposing defenses may start to game plan to keep Hurts in the pocket where he can’t, ahem, hurt them.
Chris Carson (RB-SEA) - Carson had a nice 30-yard touchdown run last week, but then the team inexplicably went away from him. His value has mainly been due to scoring three times, but those opportunities could be harder to come by against the 49ers this week, and especially against the Rams, Steelers, and Saints in Weeks 5-7. Carson also hasn’t broken the injury seal yet, so his value might be as high as it’s going to get all year.
Sell Low
DeAndre Hopkins (WR-ARI) - We can chalk up Hopkins poor Week 3 to a rib injury that made him a game time decision, but when we look at his opportunity to date, it paints an ugly picture for a player that was expected to be a strong WR1 for fantasy teams this year. Hopkins is tied for the team target lead with A.J. Green, but has only gotten 18 targets. Christian Kirk has gotten 17, Chase Edmonds has gotten 17, Rondale Moore has gotten 15, and even Maxx Williams has 11. Last year Hopkins had 160 targets and no Cardinal had even half of that over the course of the season. His two touchdown Week 1 is concealing that Hopkins isn’t going to be what he was before in fantasy leagues this year. He also should see a lot of Jalen Ramsey this week.
Opportunity Knocks
If you have an extra roster spot burning a hole in your pocket, here are some young players that are likely on your waiver wire with the possibility of extra opportunity this week.
Allen Lazard (WR-GB)
Olamide Zaccheaus (WR-ATL)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhene (WR-TEN)
Collin Johnson (WR-NYG)
Auden Tate (WR-CIN)
Anthony Firkser (TE-TEN)
Will Dissly (TE-SEA)
Albert Okwuegbunam (TE-DEN)
