The Gut Check No.542: Waldman's 2021 Draft Tiers

Photo: Kim Klement, USA Today Sports

It's Time...

I've written enough about players this summer. I have comments on almost every ranking. The Upside designation for the players in the Draft Dominator and Top 300? I write those.

And, there are all the Gut Check articles from this summer. You should know where I stand with most of these players. Let's put the pieces of the puzzle together.

How the Tiers Work

The tiers are based on 12-team PPR formats. I will not be doing a non-PPR tier.

The Obvious: Each tier is ordered based on the ADPs of players.

• First Tier: Rounds 1-2
• Second Tier: Rounds 3-5
• Third Tier: Rounds 6-8
• Fourth Tier: Rounds 9-11
• Fifth Tier: Rounds 12-15

The No-So-Obvious: The players within each tier are not ranked in the order that I prefer them. They are ranked close to a mid-August Average Draft Position (ADP).

The Significance of "Round?": The Round (Rnd) is either where that player is getting drafted or my calculated "sweet spot" between my value of that player and his ADP. You'll either notice a straightforward number (1 = first round, 2 = second round, etc.) or you will see initials and numbers combined.

• E1 = Early portion of the first round.
• M1 = Middle part of the first round.
• L1 = Late part of the first round.
• M2/L3 = The sweet spot for that player, depending on where you draft is between the middle of the second and late part of the third round.
• Rd 16-20 = The range of the player's ADP is wide enough in the later rounds that you should plan to draft him between rounds 16-20.

These sweet spot estimations are exactly that...estimations. If you value the player as I do or more, you may want to draft him earlier if you look at these tiers and decide you like 2-3 players from one tier and could acquire more of them if you deviate from ADP conventions and build a reach or two into your plan.

After the First Tier, there are tables to the right of the rest of the tiers with names from previous tiers: That's right, these players listed to the right are players from previous tiers whose sweet-spot values are lower than their tier. It means I value these players significantly higher than your ADP and you can get them later.

In other words, it's merely a reminder that these players from higher tiers should earn the highest priority of consideration if you agree or trust my valuation of them.

What about players with "Round" values higher than the tier they're in? These are players where I ranked them slightly lower than their tier but I value their upside enough to keep them off the No-Fly List.

In this case, I'm hoping they fall to me a little lower than my projected round valuation of where to take them. A good example of Dak Prescott. Prescott could get selected as early as the fifth round but I'd prefer not to take him at least until the sixth round.

What's this No-Fly List?

I wrote an article about my 2021 No-Fly List of players that I won't be considering for drafts unless they fall well below I could reasonably project their drop in value. Here's my current list so you can decide whether you want to add them back into these tiers on your own.

The "Rnd" is the round where I would have valued them. "MW" is my exact value. "ADP" is the Average Draft Position. And "Diff." is the difference between my value and ADP.

I create a curve so the deeper we get into the draft, the wider the difference between my value and the ADP had to be for these players to wind up on this No-Fly List.

One Last Thing about the list: I will add many of these players back into my own draft plans based on slight changes to scoring or lineup formats that use more than one quarterback, four receivers, and three running backs. 1.5 PPR scoring for tight ends would also lead me to put the tight ends on this list back into my draft plan.

Players that I will often consider in my draft plans against top competition where I will employ less conventional builds are in bold on this list. My tiers are designed to be safer than the crazy things with my draft plans against fantasy writers or in highly competitive leagues.

Waldman's 2021 No-Fly List

As you can see, all of these players in bold are running backs. If you're adopting some form of an Upside-Down/Zero RB strategy, these options should be in your tiers although I'd lean more on considering Taylor and Edwards-Helaire than Barkley.

There are also players I intentionally left off the tiers below. Myles Gaskin is one of them. I appreciate what his value can be for a draft plan and if he fits your specific draft plan, fine. He doesn't fit mine.

What About Players You Especially Like In Each Tier

I will have their row in bold. Just because I have the player's row in bold, it doesn't mean I like them better than great options in the first round. For instance, Antonio Gibson. I'm suggesting you consider him in the late first if you have a draft plan that supports this idea or be thrilled you can get him in the early-to-middle of the second round.

I'm not telling you to draft him ahead of the elite backs.

Wait! There are Players who I think you should consider formulating a plan around!

If they are in bold with an asterisk (*), I think they are significantly underrated in their tier and worth a small-to-moderate reach and building your strategy around. This means knowing how to balance your team around these guys. If you just grabbed them without thinking this through, that's on you.

Here's the list and their ADP Round so you can look at these tiers with these players in mind to help you formulate a plan to acquire them.

• Tyreek Hill
• Mike Evans
• Tom Brady
• Antonio Brown
• 1-2 of Rob Gronkowski/Jared Cook
• Cleveland Browns Defense
• Bryan Edwards

Why are some players in italics?

Players who I am not sold on due to their situation and track record but not on the No-Fly List are in italics. I suggest limiting how many of these options are on your team. They are talented, but may not be in a great situation for a strong year.

First Tier

I like drafting from the back turn in serpentine formats. So a lot of these players I have in bold in this tier are players I'd pair together at the back turn (picks 10-14). If you're drafting in the middle or at the front end, I'd also consider at least one of the players in bold. My favorite combos:

• Drafting from the top: Four of the first five backs that are not in italics and either Hopkins, Jefferson, or Brown.
• Drafting from the middle: Hill and Gibson.
• Drafting from the back: Hill and Gibson, Chubb and Gibson, or Chubb and one of Diggs/Hopkins

Second Tier

I am a big fan of J.K. Dobbis, Terry McLaurin, and CeeDee Lamb but if you're buying into my Buccaneers' stack, they won't likely fall to you. If you're not buying into the stack, or only partially buying, you can incorporate one of them into your plan.

• Early Spots (3rd/4th/5th):
• Evans / Godwin / Brady (if shooting for greatness).
• Evans / Lockett / Brady (if want to graze greatness -- a little diversification)
• Evans / Kupp / Brady (if you want to be a little more conservative)
• Middle Spots:
• Evans / Godwin / Brady
• Evans / Brady / Thielen
• Evans / Brady / Hunt, Davis, or Robinson
• Late Spots:
• Evans / Woods / Brady
• Evans / Jacobs / Brady
• Evans / Lockett / Brady

Third Tier

My recommendation is to mix and match receivers and promising backs here. Odell Beckham Jr and Antonio Brown may appear to have capped upsides, but I think they'll outplay their draft position. Trey Sermon, Raheem Moster, A.J. Dillon, and Damien Harris have RB2 floors if they earn opportunities to lead their backfields.

• Early Spots:
• Ultimate upside: Odell Beckham Jr / Trey Sermon / Antonio Brown / A.J. Dillon
• If you need receivers: Beckham / Boyd / Brown / Jaylen Waddle
• If you need backs: Damien Harris or Henderson / Sermon / Brown or Dillon / Jamaal Williams or Devin Singletary
• Middle Spots:
• Ultimate upside: Beckham / Sermon / Brown / Dillon
• If you need receivers: Beckham / Boyd / Brown / Waddle
• If you need backs: Harris / Sermon / Michael Carter II / Williams
• Late Spots:
• Ultimate upside: Beckham or Jeudy / Harris or Sermon / Brown or Shenault / Shenault or Waddle
• Receiver-heavy: Same as ultimate upside.
• Back-heavy: Harris / Mostert / Sermon, Carter or Dillon / Williams or Singletary

Fourth Tier

There are still some valuable starters here, including Michael Gallup, Marvin Jones Jr, Jared Cook, Rob Gronkowski, and DeVante Parker. If you get three of these five, you're doing well — especially if you took shots on some rookies earlier and they underwhelm. If you feel great about your team heading into the ninth round and selected your starter (Brady or an early-round option), Trey Lance and Justin Fields are excellent high-upside picks. If you prefer a higher floor because they have the starting job right now, wait for Tua Tagovailoa or Ben Roethlisberger to begin your fifth tier. Tagovailoa is also a good late-round QB selection.

Fifth Tier

Tua Tagovailoa is a strong value as a QBBC you can pair with Derek Carr or Ryan Fitzpatrick if you waited this long. I'm happy to roll with Gronkowski and/or Jared Cook as my starters. Hunter Henry is worth a look with Mac Jones as the starter, but his ceiling and floor are too unstable compared to my recommendations.

The real winner in New England after the Sony Michel trade and Mac Jones winning the starting job might be James White. I love Rhamondre Stevenson's talent but as someone who studied his tape and touted him for months, the preseason tape is fluff and the box score analysts have joined the bandwagon for wrong reasons and are trying to steer it off course. Stevenson probably isn't ready yet. He might be by midseason or if forced into a role, but he's likely the No.3 to begin the year.

If you miss on White, Bernard could have a great opportunity to deliver like White in Tampa but with more red-zone upside. He's a great hedge if you stacked Buccaneers receivers as directed and injuries strike. The more Brady's starting corps gets hurt, the more likely Bernard becomes an RB1 in PPR. That's a good late-round insurance policy.

Moore has WR2 upside as a Tyreek Hill type of player in terms of role even if his ability isn't quite the same for those who watch more than the Red Zone channel and highlights.

If you're worried about your receivers, Moore, Emmanuel Sanders, A.J. Green, and Brian Edwards are excellent late-round options. It may seem unlikely, but I could see all four of these players delivering top-36 value at their position. All four have top-24 upside.

Late-Round Faves

The players I'm targeting often are in bold, but this also serves as an excellent waiver-wire list for Weeks 1-3

• RB Boston Scott
• RB Justin Jackson
• WR Sammy Watkins
• WR Denzel Mims
• RB Carlos Hyde
• WR Allen Lazard
• WR DWayne Eskridge
• QB Mac Jones
• RB Chris Evans
• RB Qadree Ollison
• TE Hayden Hurst
• WR DeSean Jackson*
• WR Byron Pringle
• WR Keelan Cole
• WR Josh Reynolds

Good luck!