The Gut Check No.542: Waldman's 2021 Draft Tiers

Matt Waldman's The Gut Check No.542: Waldman's 2021 Draft Tiers Matt Waldman Published 08/26/2021

It's Time...

I've written enough about players this summer. I have comments on almost every ranking. The Upside designation for the players in the Draft Dominator and Top 300? I write those.

And, there are all the Gut Check articles from this summer. You should know where I stand with most of these players. Let's put the pieces of the puzzle together.

How the Tiers Work

The tiers are based on 12-team PPR formats. I will not be doing a non-PPR tier.

The Obvious: Each tier is ordered based on the ADPs of players.

  • First Tier: Rounds 1-2
  • Second Tier: Rounds 3-5
  • Third Tier: Rounds 6-8
  • Fourth Tier: Rounds 9-11
  • Fifth Tier: Rounds 12-15

The No-So-Obvious: The players within each tier are not ranked in the order that I prefer them. They are ranked close to a mid-August Average Draft Position (ADP).

The Significance of "Round?": The Round (Rnd) is either where that player is getting drafted or my calculated "sweet spot" between my value of that player and his ADP. You'll either notice a straightforward number (1 = first round, 2 = second round, etc.) or you will see initials and numbers combined.

  • E1 = Early portion of the first round.
  • M1 = Middle part of the first round.
  • L1 = Late part of the first round.
  • M2/L3 = The sweet spot for that player, depending on where you draft is between the middle of the second and late part of the third round.
  • Rd 16-20 = The range of the player's ADP is wide enough in the later rounds that you should plan to draft him between rounds 16-20.

These sweet spot estimations are exactly that...estimations. If you value the player as I do or more, you may want to draft him earlier if you look at these tiers and decide you like 2-3 players from one tier and could acquire more of them if you deviate from ADP conventions and build a reach or two into your plan.

After the First Tier, there are tables to the right of the rest of the tiers with names from previous tiers: That's right, these players listed to the right are players from previous tiers whose sweet-spot values are lower than their tier. It means I value these players significantly higher than your ADP and you can get them later.

In other words, it's merely a reminder that these players from higher tiers should earn the highest priority of consideration if you agree or trust my valuation of them.

What about players with "Round" values higher than the tier they're in? These are players where I ranked them slightly lower than their tier but I value their upside enough to keep them off the No-Fly List.

In this case, I'm hoping they fall to me a little lower than my projected round valuation of where to take them. A good example of Dak Prescott. Prescott could get selected as early as the fifth round but I'd prefer not to take him at least until the sixth round.

What's this No-Fly List?

I wrote an article about my 2021 No-Fly List of players that I won't be considering for drafts unless they fall well below I could reasonably project their drop in value. Here's my current list so you can decide whether you want to add them back into these tiers on your own.

The "Rnd" is the round where I would have valued them. "MW" is my exact value. "ADP" is the Average Draft Position. And "Diff." is the difference between my value and ADP.

I create a curve so the deeper we get into the draft, the wider the difference between my value and the ADP had to be for these players to wind up on this No-Fly List.

One Last Thing about the list: I will add many of these players back into my own draft plans based on slight changes to scoring or lineup formats that use more than one quarterback, four receivers, and three running backs. 1.5 PPR scoring for tight ends would also lead me to put the tight ends on this list back into my draft plan.

Players that I will often consider in my draft plans against top competition where I will employ less conventional builds are in bold on this list. My tiers are designed to be safer than the crazy things with my draft plans against fantasy writers or in highly competitive leagues.

Waldman's 2021 No-Fly List

RndPFirstLastMWADPDiff.
1 RB Saquon Barkley 14 9 -5
2 RB Jonathan Taylor 30 13 -17
2 RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire 55 24 -31
N/A RB Travis Etienne (And now, injured...) N/A N/A N/A
6 WR Kenny Golladay 124 71 -53
7 WR DeVonta Smith 130 82 -42
7 TE Noah Fant 173 84 -89
8 RB Ronald Jones 127 93 -34
9 WR Will Fuller 167 102 -65
10 WR Mecole Hardman 166 118 -48
13 TE Evan Engram 242 247 -95

As you can see, all of these players in bold are running backs. If you're adopting some form of an Upside-Down/Zero RB strategy, these options should be in your tiers although I'd lean more on considering Taylor and Edwards-Helaire than Barkley.

There are also players I intentionally left off the tiers below. Myles Gaskin is one of them. I appreciate what his value can be for a draft plan and if he fits your specific draft plan, fine. He doesn't fit mine.

What About Players You Especially Like In Each Tier

I will have their row in bold. Just because I have the player's row in bold, it doesn't mean I like them better than great options in the first round. For instance, Antonio Gibson. I'm suggesting you consider him in the late first if you have a draft plan that supports this idea or be thrilled you can get him in the early-to-middle of the second round.

I'm not telling you to draft him ahead of the elite backs.

Wait! There are Players who I think you should consider formulating a plan around!

If they are in bold with an asterisk (*), I think they are significantly underrated in their tier and worth a small-to-moderate reach and building your strategy around. This means knowing how to balance your team around these guys. If you just grabbed them without thinking this through, that's on you.

Here's the list and their ADP Round so you can look at these tiers with these players in mind to help you formulate a plan to acquire them.

Not a lot of players here, but I'm clearly all-in on the Buccaneers passing game. Build around it and I think you have a strong shot at not only a league-winner but also a league dominator. If you know my work, you know I rarely go all-in on these scenarios. The quarterbacks I was this high on in the past at close to this level? Peyton Manning during his record year, Patrick Mahomes II in year two, and Brady.

Why are some players in italics?

Players who I am not sold on due to their situation and track record but not on the No-Fly List are in italics. I suggest limiting how many of these options are on your team. They are talented, but may not be in a great situation for a strong year.

First Tier

I like drafting from the back turn in serpentine formats. So a lot of these players I have in bold in this tier are players I'd pair together at the back turn (picks 10-14). If you're drafting in the middle or at the front end, I'd also consider at least one of the players in bold. My favorite combos:

  • Drafting from the top: Four of the first five backs that are not in italics and either Hopkins, Jefferson, or Brown.
  • Drafting from the middle: Hill and Gibson.
  • Drafting from the back: Hill and Gibson, Chubb and Gibson, or Chubb and one of Diggs/Hopkins
TierRndPosFirstLastThoughts
I 1 RB Christian McCaffrey Safe choice, scheme independent, high upside.
I 1 RB Dalvin Cook I love the talent, supporting cast, and volume potential. Not in love with his durability history.
I 1 RB Alvin Kamara High-volume back with highs and lows with a greater boom-bust value due to his quarterback(s) and surrounding talent. I'm a little more skittish about him.
I 1 RB Derrick Henry A strong supporting cast, high upside, more scheme independent than folks think. One of the safest backs on the board.
I 1 RB Ezekiel Elliott I think he rebounds and earns enough touches despite the fears that Mike McCarthy will cap his volume too low for RB1 value. His OL and QB are healthy enough.
I 1 WR Davante Adams Volume and quarterback make this skillful option an elite producer.
I 1 TE Travis Kelce Safest early option at the position due to offense and rapport with a great quarterback.
I L1 RB Aaron Jones If you can get the Jones-A.J. Dillon handcuff combo and have K.J. Hill high on your early-season waiver-wire list, I'd do it.
I L1 WR Tyreek Hill* The best wide receiver in the league when considering big-play athletic ability, route running, offense, elite complement in Kelce, and quarterback.
I L1/E2 RB Nick Chubb Kareem Hunt doesn't concern me. Rock-solid, safe choice. Nice pick at 1/2 turn.
I 2 RB Austin Ekeler Ekeler is capable of top-12 PPR value but I'd prefer a better runner between the tackles or a top WR.
I L1/E2 RB Jonathan Taylor While still officially on my No-Fly List, I'm coming around on the potential for the OL to be fine.
I 2 WR Stefon Diggs An excellent route runner in an offense that optimizes his best skills and his quarterback's strengths.
I 2 RB Najee Harris Skilled and likely to earn the volume necessary for solid-to-strong RB2 production, but not enthusiastic about the Steelers' line.
I L1/E2 WR DeAndre Hopkins The fear of dragons at the edge of the fantasy ageists' flat world has been allowed to creep into the world of a great 29-year-old receiver. Exploit that ignorance.
I 2 WR Calvin Ridley Ridley is a fine talent but I'd rather see how he handles coverage rolled to his side on a consistent basis without Julio Jones before investing in him this early.
I E2/M2 RB Antonio Gibson The exception to the rule when considering that backs need to have refined skills with setting up blocks. Gibson was raw last year and still excellent.
I M2/L2 WR D.K. Metcalf Excellent option but I expect Tyler Lockett to offer more for his value in this new Seahawks offense.
I L2/E3 QB Patrick Mahomes If you're an early-quarterback drafter, I'll never chide you for taking prime Mahomes.
I M2/L2 WR Justin Jefferson The AC Joint injury has depressed his value slightly. I'll still take my chances. He and Brown are my two favorite young receivers.
I M2/L2 WR A.J. Brown Julio Jones is going to open a lot up for Brown. Expect a dominant fantasy season soon--including the possibility of this year.
I E3 TE Darren Waller While I prefer waiting on tight ends Waller is a fine option in an offense that should be better on the outside and make Waller more efficient in 2021.

Second Tier

I am a big fan of J.K. Dobbis, Terry McLaurin, and CeeDee Lamb but if you're buying into my Buccaneers' stack, they won't likely fall to you. If you're not buying into the stack, or only partially buying, you can incorporate one of them into your plan.

  • Early Spots (3rd/4th/5th):
    • Evans / Godwin / Brady (if shooting for greatness).
    • Evans / Lockett / Brady (if want to graze greatness -- a little diversification)
    • Evans / Kupp / Brady (if you want to be a little more conservative)
  • Middle Spots:
    • Evans / Godwin / Brady
    • Evans / Brady / Thielen
    • Evans / Brady / Hunt, Davis, or Robinson
  • Late Spots:
    • Evans / Woods / Brady
    • Evans / Jacobs / Brady
    • Evans / Lockett / Brady
TierRndPosFirstLastThoughts FirstLastPosTierRndThoughts
II E3 WR Keenan Allen The only issue with Allen has been occasional durability concerns. Safe pick. Justin Jefferson WR I L2 See above.
II E3 TE George Kittle The likely quarterback change could hurt Kittle some, but not enough to overlook him if you like taking TEs early. A.J. Brown WR I L2 See above.
II L3/E4 RB Gus Edwards If you know you can get Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp, or Tyler Lockett in the late part of the 4th round, consider Montgomery, Carson, or Jacobs who will be central figures in their offenses. Edwards has equal TD upside, but lower yardage upside.
II 3 RB David Montgomery Montgomery was good without a strong offensive line last year. Expect him to be better even if the OL isn't much better because the threat of Justin Fields' legs will open bigger creases.
II 3 WR Terry McLaurin I like safe picks early. McLaurin is a great route runner and reliable pass catcher and has proven his value without a lot of weapons around him. Easy/safe pick.
II 3 QB Josh Allen Allen had some issues with zone coverage last year but his improvement has been notable. If he falls to the mid-fourth, I'd consider him there.
II 3 WR CeeDee Lamb Lamb is could easily have a season on par with A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson. Safe pick with PPR upside.
II 3 WR Allen Robinson Robinson's talent isn't the issue. I'm more concerned about Matt Nagy's offense, Justin Fields' early rapport with Robinson. Upside, but a hidden trap door for his downside.
II M3/E4 RB Chris Carson Solid RB2 in an offense that could help him generate RB1 value if the OL gels in this outside zone system.
II M3/L3 WR Mike Evans* I don't get the hate for Evans. He was hurt most of 2020. When he wasn't, he was a stud. The Buccaneers could have a record year, I'm all-in on stacking this offense.
II L3/E4 RB Josh Jacobs The OL will be a better running unit and the improvements with the perimeter passing game should also help Jacobs on the ground. Solid floor despite Kenyan Drake.
II E4 WR Robert Woods If you took Chubb and Antonio Gibson 1-2, Evans/Woods 3-4 is awesome! Do it.
II 4 RB Miles Sanders Sanders has improved as an NFL player but I have concerns with the efficiency of this offense. Still, if you are targeting an RB2 here with RB1 upside he's not a bad choice.
II 4 QB Kyler Murray Because you can get Tom Brady cheap, I prefer waiting on a quarterback a little longer.
II 4 WR Amari Cooper A solid player with great upside who I'd also pair with Evans or stack with Lamb.
II 4 QB Lamar Jackson I almost put Jackson in bold, but If you've waited this long, get Brady.
II 4 WR Chris Godwin Godwin was also nicked up last year. If you can get 2-3 of the Buccaneers' passing game, you're shooting for fantasy greatness this year.
II 4 WR Cooper Kupp Woods could lead the team in yardage, but Kupp won't be far behind and may contend for the lead in targets and TDs.
II L4/M5 WR Julio Jones I covered the Falcons for 10 years at this site. Jones is still elite when on the field, but the breakdowns have been more frequent. If you've been safe up to this point, go ahead w/your shot.
II L4/E5 TE Tyler Lockett Lockett has enough skills to mimic what Robert Woods brings to Sean McVay's offense but with more vertical upside. He's a high-ceiling/high-floor option.
II E5/M5 QB Tom Brady* You can probably get Brady in the early sixth in many leagues, but he's the linchpin of my drafts, and his floor is easily the fifth round. League-winner potential.
II L4/E5 WR Adam Thielen It's as if the fantasy world has forgotten about how good Thielen is when healthy. Easy choice here if you want a third or fourth WR with WR1 upside/WR3 floor.
II 5 WR D.J. Moore I love the talent, but not sold on Sam Darnold supporting Moore's upside until I see them in the regular season.
II 5 WR Diontae Johnson A solid young player who could make the leap to WR1 territory if conditions are right, but not completely sold they are.
II 5 RB Mike Davis The doom and gloom that Davis was a fluke last year is my bed that those folks don't understand what makes a good RB. Davis is a skilled RB2 and if this OL clicks? :)
II 5 TE Mark Andrews Safe, smart, and productive.
II 5 RB Kareem Hunt Would I take Chubb and Hunt? You bet I would but I doubt you'll get him if you take Brady. But if you took a QB earlier or wait until later? Sure.
II 5 QB Aaron Rodgers If you're not taking Brady here you might as well wait for another 4-6 rounds for your first passer.
II 5 RB James Robinson Robinson is a better RB at this stage of his career than Travis Etienne would have been this year. I feel for Etienne but am happy the Jags get this right by happenstance.
II 5 QB Russell Wilson See notes on Rodgers.
II 5 QB Dak Prescott See notes on Rodgers.
II 5 WR Brandon Aiyuk A good young talent, but quarterback switches have unpredictable results for young receivers and this is likely to happen in San Francisco this year.
II L5/E6 TE T.J. Hockenson The last of the early-round tight ends with the safe volume you can lean on.

Third Tier

My recommendation is to mix and match receivers and promising backs here. Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown may appear to have capped upsides, but I think they'll outplay their draft position. Trey Sermon, Raheem Moster, A.J. Dillon, and Damien Harris have RB2 floors if they earn opportunities to lead their backfields.

  • Early Spots:
  • Middle Spots:
    • Ultimate upside: Beckham / Sermon / Brown / Dillon
    • If you need receivers: Beckham / Boyd / Brown / Waddle
    • If you need backs: Harris / Sermon / Michael Carter / Williams
  • Late Spots:
    • Ultimate upside: Beckham or Jeudy / Harris or Sermon / Brown or Shenault / Shenault or Waddle
    • Receiver-heavy: Same as ultimate upside.
    • Back-heavy: Harris / Mostert / Sermon, Carter or Dillon / Williams or Singletary

TierRndPosFirstLastThoughtsFirstLastPOsTierRndThoughts
III 6 RB Darrell Henderson Sony Michel is a quality talent when healthy, but that's hard to predict. Henderson is also and that's easier to count on. He's also a better big-play threat. Tom Brady* QB II E5/M5 See above.
III 6 QB Justin Herbert Herbert was great for fantasy teams last year but as PFF's Dwain McFarland and I noted in last week's RSP Cast, Herbet has shown signs of a trap-door floor. T.J. Hockenson TE II L5/E6 See above.
III 6 WR Tee Higgins Higgins should approach 800-1,000 yards this year.
III 6 WR JaMarr Chase Chase has high-end WR2 upside, but he has been off to a slow start in camp. Expect ups and downs. Give me Jaylen Waddle this year.
III 6 WR JuJu Smith-Schuster Capable fantasy starter with WR2 upside, but more likely capped as a good WR3.
III 6 WR Chase Claypool I'm still waiting to see if Claypool can win with coverage rolled over to him and making him the priority. His production suffered when this happened last year.
III M5/L5 TE Kyle Pitts Pitts has a decent shot of WR2 fantasy value as a TE1 operating more like a receiver in this offense. But as a fourth-round pick? Too many good receivers available for me to go there.
III E/M6 WR Odell Beckham Beckham might be the best combination of safety and upside as an early pick in the sixth round. I'll buy it.
III L6/E7 RB Raheem Mostert The 49ers have an excellent ground game and Mostert could be a more refined Tevin Coleman to Trey Sermon's Devonta Freeman, but the trap-door is Sermon taking over.
III L6/E7 WR Jerry Jeudy Jeudy should be ecstatic about Teddy Bridgewater earning the starting job because their skills mesh best for Jeudy's upside.
III L6/E7 RB Damien Harris If you're an Upside-Down/Do-the-Opposite/Zero-RB drafter, Harris is an excellent target. If not, he's still a bargain RB2.
III 7 WR Robby Anderson The player with whom Sam Darnold should have the best rapport.
III L7 RB Melvin Gordon Capable talent and while many are down on him due to the potential of Javonte Williams, you can get both if you went strong with your passing game early.
III 7 TE Logan Thomas Thomas could build on a strong 2020 campaign but I prefer other options.
III E7/M7/L7 RB Trey Sermon I'll take my chances on Sermon at any point in the seventh round and hope he takes over completely for the best rushing unit in football west of Cleveland.
III 7 QB Ryan Tannehill Upside and surrounding talent if you miss on Brady and don't trust the rookies.
III M/L7 WR Tyler Boyd If you need a receiver, Beckham and Boyd are the safest picks in PPR in this tier. Even so, make room for Antonio Brown in the early eighth.
III 8 WR Brandin Cooks Consistent as a fantasy producer, but will he have the consistent QB play. At this late juncture, you can take the chance but I like other options more.
III 8 RB Michael Carter By year's end, Carter should see the field a lot but he's probably lagging behind Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson as a pass protector right now.
III 8 WR D.J. Chark Chark hasn't had an inspiring camp, but the ability is there. His floor is lower than Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault's, but his ceiling is almost as high.
III 8 WR Deebo Samuel See thoughts on Aiyuk.
III E8/M8/L8 WR Antonio Brown* Brown has dominated Buccaneers camp and we've learned he needed surgery for 3 years and is healthy. Go for WR1 upside in the 8th round.
III M8 QB Matthew Stafford If you already got Evans and Godwin and Brown is just too much for you or you missed on Brady, Stafford has weapons (and scheme) for top-five QB play.
III 9 QB Jalen Hurts Hurts has the legs and vertical passing potential for a QB1 season.
III 9 TE Dallas Goedert Skilled enough for TE1 production but will the volume be consistent with the developing Hurts?
III M8/L8 WR Laviska Shenault Shenault has been excellent this summer and should lead the team in combined touches and targets
III 9 TE Robert Tonyan Great quarterback and has a good scheme for his improving player who should build on his TE1 campaign from 2020.
III 9 WR Jarvis Landry Don't know what to do? Landry is safe although not exciting. A high-ceiling pick if you need some safety.
III 9 WR Jaylen Waddle Waddle is one of my top two candidates to follow A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson as the top rookie producer at his position.
III 9 RB A.J. Dillon Dillon has league-winning upside as a difference-maker if Aaron Jones gets hurt.
III M9/L9 TE Tyler Higbee Higbee is the first of a few tight ends I'd wait to take as my starter.
III L9 RB Devin Singletary A skilled runner with a lower ceiling than you'd like as an athlete who seems destined for a timeshare but if teammates falter, he could have a career year.
III E9/M9/L9 RB Jamaal Williams DAndre Swift has a hidden floor and Williams is a solid back with skills between the tackles and in the passing game. He has an RB2 ceiling.

Fourth Tier

There are still some valuable starters here, including Michael Gallup, Marvin Jones, Jared Cook, Rob Gronkowski, and DeVante Parker. If you get three of these five, you're doing well — especially if you took shots on some rookies earlier and they underwhelm. If you feel great about your team heading into the ninth round and selected your starter (Brady or an early-round option), Trey Lance and Justin Fields are excellent high-upside picks. If you prefer a higher floor because they have the starting job right now, wait for Tua Tagovailoa or Ben Roethlisberger to begin your fifth tier. Tagovailoa is also a good late-round QB selection.

TierRndPosFirstLastThoughts FirstLastPosTierRndThoughts
IV M8-M9 WR Michael Gallup High-floor, high-upside player this late. Easy pick if you shy away from rookie WRs or older guys like Brown. Jaylen Waddle WR III 9 See above.
IV 9 TE Mike Gesicki A skilled player for what he does well but he's not an instant mismatch at his position. Best with jump-balls and seam routes. Tyler Higbee TE III 9 See above.
IV M9/E10 WR Marvin Jones Jones could easily lead the Jaguars in receptions, yardage, and touchdowns. Injuries are his hidden floor. Jamaal Williams RB III E9/M9/L9 See above.
IV 10 TE Irv Smith The hidden trap-door with Smith is the underrated and unsung Photos provided by Imagn Images
Tags:
QB RB TE WR strategy Tiers Odell Beckham Jr Tom Brady Teddy Bridgewater A.J. Brown Antonio Brown Joe Burrow Derek Carr Michael Carter II Keelan Cole Sr. Tevin Coleman Alex Collins Tyler Conklin Jared Cook Kirk Cousins Sam Darnold AJ Dillon Kenyan Drake Bryan Edwards Gus Edwards Dee Eskridge Travis Etienne Jr. Chris Evans Mike Evans Justin Fields Ryan Fitzpatrick Devonta Freeman Michael Gallup Myles Gaskin Antonio Gibson Chris Godwin A.J. Green Rob Gronkowski Damien Harris Hunter Henry KJ Hill Jr. Tyreek Hill Kareem Hunt Hayden Hurst Carlos Hyde DeSean Jackson Justin Jackson Justin Jefferson Ty Johnson Aaron Jones Julio Jones Marvin Jones Jr Mac Jones Cooper Kupp CeeDee Lamb Trey Lance Allen Lazard Tyler Lockett Patrick Mahomes II Terry McLaurin Sony Michel Denzel Mims Qadree Ollison DeVante Parker Dak Prescott Byron Pringle Josh Reynolds Ben Roethlisberger Emmanuel Sanders Boston Scott Trey Sermon Laviska Shenault Jr Sterling Shepard Devin Singletary Rhamondre Stevenson D'Andre Swift Tua Tagovailoa Jaylen Waddle Sammy Watkins Carson Wentz James White Jamaal Williams Javonte Williams Zach Wilson
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