Monday Showdown Week 5

Photo: Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports

Disclaimer

These contests are intended to be fun as you’re watching the game. It’s incredibly difficult to get a real edge as there are so few options and in MME contests there are often many duplicate lineups. One play or one penalty can change the entire outcome of the game.

This article is going to have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision making process is more interesting with the Captain having a salary premium to correspond with the scoring premium. On FanDuel, the pricing is the same for both MVP and flex, so just play either a quarterback or running back in that spot. There are scenarios where a wide receiver can pay off, but it’s difficult with it being the 0.5 per reception.

PSA and Apology

We are actively working on bringing another writer to help with these articles. At the moment, my bandwidth is stretched extremely thin (not that you should care at all). These are going up late, and I’ve only been able to do two of these per week. We want to add the Sunday Night Game, among other things. We did this as an in-season test of bonus content, and it’s been overwhelmingly successful in terms of the response we’ve gotten back from you all.

Game Strategy

This is going to be a fun slate, simply because there are so many different options that can be had, while not having the cheap low-end guy that will force some tough decision making. At the top-end Lamar Jackson is likely going to be the highest rostered player, and there is great reason for it. At the Captain spot, he makes a ton of sense due to his rushing upside that few quarterbacks possess.

If you elect to fade Jackson at the captain spot, a number of different exciting options come about. One of which is Latavius Murray at just $11,100 is incredibly intriguing as he looks as if he is going to take over this backfield in Baltimore based on his 18 carries last week. On the other side of the ball, Jonathan Taylor makes for a strong captain play this week due to his strong but often volatile usage in the passing game.

Captain Consideration:

1. Lamar Jackson
2. Jonathan Taylor
3. Mark Andrews
4. Marquise Brown
5. Latavius Murray
6. Marlon Mack

Ravens Offense

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson- Captain or Flex

Lamar Jackson should be in your lineup this week, the only question is whether you are going to “fade” him by putting him in the Flex position. Jackson is projected to score 8 more points than the next closest player on this slate as his dynamic ability to run and pass against a Colts defense that has not faced a running quarterback this season. Jackson is a strong captain play, but there is some concern here as he has not been great this season. In three of his four games, Jackson has scored just one touchdown in each of those games, so what you’re really hoping for tonight is a game like he had against Kansas City where he ran for 107 yards with 2 touchdowns while adding another touchdown through the air.

The risk is high for what should be the most popular captain on the slate. The math tells you to take him as a captain based on just such a large variance in projected points compared to the next closest player, but game theory also tells you to potentially not take him if he’s going to be that highly rostered.

Running Back- Latavius Murray- Captain or Flex

Latavius Murray is an intriguing option on this slate. A lot of people see a Baltimore running back and immediately start running away from the situation, and while it could be a similar situation this week where it is a running back by committee, there really is not a significant committee to compete against. Last week Murray had 18 carries, and was on the field for 62% of the plays last week.

Other Running Backs

Both Le’Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman make for interesting flex plays this week. The Ravens backfield is almost impossible to predict on a week-to-week basis, so taking a flyer on one of these guys to provide some salary relief. Devonta Freeman is a little more interesting as he seems to be the #2 guy in Baltimore. Le’Veon Bell outsnapped Freeman, but that is a little misleading as he came in when the game was out of hand last week on a 15 play drive. Freeman at $400 could be a nice way to save salary this week.

Wide Receiver

Marquise Brown- Captain or Flex

Marquise Brown being the only consistent wide receiver in Baltimore makes for a potential interesting play albeit a risky one. The upside is always there as he has scored a touchdown in three of his four games this season, while topping 90 yards in two of those contests. However, the floor is not where you want it to be for the second highest priced player on this slate.

Brown is expensive, which will likely decrease his roster percentage, but the upside alone is worth considering in a spot where Indianapolis has struggled against slot receivers as they allowed 9 receptions 162 yards and 2 touchdowns to Cooper Kupp and 4 receptions 100 yards and 2 touchdowns to Tyler Lockett. If Brown can replicate these two touchdown games, he’s going to be a player you’re going to want in your lineup.

Mark Andrews- Captain or Flex

If there is one player who could challenge Lamar Jackson as the top captain on this slate, it is Mark Andrews. At just $9.9k, Andrews provides a nice savings at the captain position with an upside that no one below him provides. Andrews has topped 50 yards in each of his last three games while catching 5 passes in each of the three contests.

The issue for Andrews has been touchdowns as he does not have a touchdown on the season, and only has three red zone targets thus far. This should change, as Andrews has been a touchdown machine the last two seasons with 7 and 10 respectively, and for Andrews the touchdowns come in bunches as he has had four two-touchdown games over the last two seasons.

Other Targets-

Sammy Watkins- Flex Play, leads the team in snaps, but production has been low-upside thus far.
James Proche- Flex Play, great savings this week, but point chasing a little bit as he had 5 receptions for 74 yards last week on just 33% of snaps.
Ravens Defense- Low end flex play
Justin Tucker- Flex play, very rare to see a kicker on here, but Tucker is one of the exceptions.

Colts Overview

Quarterback

Carson Wentz- Flex Only

Carson Wentz has fallen a long way from the MVP candidate he was back in Philadelphia before getting injured. This year, there is not much to Wentz as he is playing more of a game manager role that creates a very low ceiling as his season high for passing yards is just 251. He’s a quarterback in a friendly matchup as Baltimore is allowing 273 yards passing per game, but he’s not someone to get overly excited about this week.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor- Great Captain/Flex

Jonathan Taylor is the type of player that could have the upside to top Lamar Jackson at the captain spot this week. While it seems destined for Jackson to score the most points on this slate, Taylor is expected to once again be the focal point of this offense after a big performance last week against Miami which was Indianapolis’ first win of the season. While Taylor has been good on the ground, where we have to look at him is through the air, as Baltimore struggled with D’Andre Swift back in Week 2 allowing 7 receptions for 60 yards. If Taylor can get back to his pass catching ways, he is going to be extremely dangerous this week.

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman- Flex

The Colts wide receiving group is sort of boring as they are greatly limited by the lack of fire power coming out of Carson Wentz. Pittman has been a steady receiving option averaging 70 yards per game, but the problem is that he does not have the upside based on the limited passing from this offense. Pittman has just one touchdown in his 97 targets in the NFL.

Playing Tyler Lockett this season has been a roller coaster. Through his first four games, he has 29, 35, 7, and 6 DraftKings points. While his career is not that volatile, he has had many streaks of up and down play which can drive fantasy managers crazy. He’s likely a better Captain play due to having as high of upside as Cooper Kupp at $4,200 less, but as a flex play, it is harder because he can destroy an otherwise good lineup with a sub-par performance.

Other Targets-

Zach Pascal- Low-End Flex play- Averaging just 39 receiving yards per game, and has four or less receptions in thee games this season. Price is too high.
Marlon Mack- Flex-Play- Great value play as he played 31% of the snaps last week and had 10 carries last week. The Colts could be showcasing Mack for a potential trade.
Mo Alie-Cox- Priced up because of two touchdown game last week. Touchdown dependent option.
Nyheim Hines- High upside player, but very low floor. Game script dependent on the Colts falling behind.